What should the Marlins expect from Tim Anderson this season?

[Nate Karzmer]

The two time All-Star and former AL batting champion is coming off an uncharacteristically rough 2023 and is looking to revive his career in South Florida. What should Miami expect of their new shortstop in 2024?

On Thursday, amidst the plentiful rumors regarding where he will play in 2024, former Chicago White Sox SS Tim Anderson agreed to terms with the Miami Marlins on a one-year deal worth $5 million, pending physical. Because of how inconsistent Anderson has been in recent years, there are many opinions out there about what kind of player he'll be moving forward.

This deal comes after a poor 2023 for not only Anderson, but the White Sox as a whole. He looked like a shell of his former self and saw career lows in slugging, OPS and home runs. Anderson's .582 OPS was the lowest among all qualified hitters in MLB.

The former All-Star also continued to trend down defensively. His minus-16 defensive runs saved tied for the worst total at his position. One error in particular came against the Marlins themselves on June 10, which allowed for Miami to tie and eventually win in Chicago, as I'm sure most fans remember.

 

However, even though Anderson had a down year, the Marlins and a few other clubs needed a hole filled at shortstop. Miami made it clear that if he signed, Anderson would be the team's shortstop come Opening Day. Now that we are here, what are some realistic expectations for the 30-year-old?

The biggest factor that will determine whether Anderson reaches his full potential in Miami is his health. A lot of his struggles during not only in 2023, but post All-Star break in 2022, can be attributed to injury. 

In 2022, Anderson dealt with a nagging groin injury that dramatically affected his play once he returned in mid-June. He slashed just .249/.287/.290, but still had good enough numbers pre-injury, which led him to be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All-Star Game. Less than a month later, though, Anderson tore a ligament in his hand, shutting down his 2022 season for good. He only played 79 games.

The White Sox front office believed sidelining him for the rest of the season would be beneficial to the long-term goals that they had envisioned, but 2023 was unfortunately much of the same.

While Anderson did end up playing 123 games in 2023, he accumulated knee, shoulder, forearm and neck-related injuries that certainly slowed him down once again. Combine the injuries with the mess that was the 2023 White Sox season and you get the down year Tim Anderson had. 

A true fresh start could be extremely helpful to get Anderson's career back on track. The issues of the White Sox front office and team chemistry during the 2023 season are well documented, and trading that environment for the culture that Skip Schumaker and his staff have built down in Miami—along with reuniting with his former teammate Jake Burger—might lift some pressure off of Anderson's shoulders. Burger and other former White Sox players have disputed rumors that Anderson himself caused any of those clubhouse problems, including pitcher Luis Giolito, who told NBC Sports Chicago in 2021: "If you were to personify our attitude, kind of what makes us a club, in one guy, I would choose Tim Anderson".

In addition to the culture, Miami's new hitting coach, John Mabry, will continue to preach a contact-first approach, just like Brant Brown of last season. This could be massive for Anderson after his strikeout rate spiked from 15.7% in 2022 to 23.3% in 2023. Even when he's been successful, Anderson has had a habit of chasing too many pitches outside the zone. He has ranked in the 21st percentile or lower in that department during every season of his MLB career, according to Baseball Savant. If Mabry, his staff and new teammates such as Luis Arraez can convince Anderson to lay off more bad pitches, it could potentially elevate his play back to where Miami needs it to be.

If Anderson can stay relatively healthy, embrace his new surroundings and get back to the basics as a hitter in the spacious stadium that loanDepot park is, the Marlins could expect to see a partial return to the player that he once was. I could see a slash line around his career averages of .282/.312/.422, with perhaps a tick up in OBP and a tick down in slugging. The fielding I expect to remain the same, however if Anderson isn't playing through as much pain as last season, I do not see him dropping all the way to minus-16 DRS again. In addition, I fully expect Anderson to take a leadership role in the clubhouse just like he was known for back in Chicago.

What are you expecting out of Tim Anderson in 2024? Let us know!

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[Slacker Mills]

Given the fact that Anderson had a 14M team option to play for last season (ie. all the motivation in the world) it's impossible for me to objectively see much if any advancement in his play from last year. Apparently the Marlins are willing to accept low grade defense at SS in return for one homer every 500 at bats.

Given that Anderson basically matched the play of Jean Segura, who the Marlins couldn't dump fast enough because of it, it's impossible for me to understand why Marlin fans are lauding a move that they should be panning with conviction.

[Chad Turner]

Segura was 2 years older, out of shape, and playing a new position, which didn't go well either.  That being said, the SS market was down, and it was either a low ceiling, high floor guy like Rosario or a high ceiling, low floor Anderson.  The Marlins are projected to be at the low end of the middle of the pack (77-80 wins).  Tim could either rebound and get you to the playoffs, or suck and get you a better draft pick.  If you want to argue a move, the Brujan one gets my vote.  We gave prospects up for an out-of-options dude that will be playing in Korea in a year, taking a spot away from Edwards.  

[Slacker Mills]

Agree on Brujan and Edwards. Xavier needs an everyday job and the spot is 2b. His bat is light years ahead of Brujan and Gordon. Arraez can move to 1B. 

[97and03WorldSeriesChamps]

I’m not sure what this signing means for the Marlins. At this point, is Anderson a better option at shortstop? Is a combination of Berti, Amaya, & Brujan a better cost and “on field” option? I understand Anderson’s higher ceiling but his floor could be brutal, specially at $5 million. It just seems that the same questions are still lingering after this signing. Also, does this signing jeopardize Berti’s future with the Marlins? So far, the only sure thing, besides the cost, about this signing is the ringing Jake Burger endorsement of Anderson. Let’s see what happens!

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, 97and03WorldSeriesChamps said:

I’m not sure what this signing means for the Marlins. At this point, is Anderson a better option at shortstop? Is a combination of Berti, Amaya, & Brujan a better cost and “on field” option? I understand Anderson’s higher ceiling but his floor could be brutal, specially at $5 million. It just seems that the same questions are still lingering after this signing. Also, does this signing jeopardize Berti’s future with the Marlins? So far, the only sure thing, besides the cost, about this signing is the ringing Jake Burger endorsement of Anderson. Let’s see what happens!

Welcome to Fish On First!

[Seth Stohs]

I wouldn't expect much from him at shortstop. He might make Luis Arraez look like a good second baseman. But he can't be worse than last year, I don't think...