My 2023-24 Marlins offseason blueprint

[Ely Sussman]

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[Guest Kommenter]

Great article. Well thought out and well written. I only have a few quibbles. First, leaving Banfield unprotected unless we land at least one of the catchers mentioned before the rule 5 draft, especially considering the likely non tender of Stallings. Can't we release Sixto and protect Will?

Second, I don't trust Puk nearly as much as Tanner Scott as closer. Blown saves obviously hurt us in the loss column, but are morale killers. A good closer is worth a lot, in my humble.

Third, I don't think Rogers merits a long term contract. In fact, I think there is a chance he never returns to his peak year performance.

[Guest OneRegend]

Interesting choice to sign a choke artist like Luzardo to a 6 year premium. He cant perform during big games ever in his career, and even in the one game he did (the suspended game), it ultimately ended up not mattering in the end. I don't give 6 year extensions to guys who can't step it up during meaningful games. I would personally let him test the market earlier, or swing a trade and hope some other playoff-hopeful gets suckered into taking him on.

 

I also don't agree with signing Trevor Rogers. He hasn't been healthy OR productive in the past 2 and a half seasons, and until he proves he can stick in a major league rotation for a full season, he's prone to being placed on the waiver wire.

 

Ultimately, I don't see it being worth it to try and play for a playoff spot this year. 2023 was our best chance to do anything with this core, and they didn't even come close to doing anything in the playoffs. Years of bad drafting and mostly bad trades has left this player core with a 1-year contention window. Best to just blow it up and try again in 3-4 years, and hope *that* core doesn't end up being one-year wonder.

[Guest tpjoseph]

I enjoyed Ely's article and certainly compliment him on the depth of insight. Generally, though, I agree with you that an above-average win-now strategy is untenable. There is no chance of repeating the unicorn 2023 year, nor will we be as lucky vis-a-vis the Mets again. Accordingly, No problem with Bell leaving and using the year to define the future strategy. This means deciding on arb-eligible players, clearing the deadwood, absorbing the sunk costs (including Alcántara's lost year), and thoroughly vetting Amaya, Myers, Johnston, and Edwards. Play them or trade them. Avoid obligatory middling FA signings for their own sake. While I agree with Ely that the fan base will howl over a regression, there is precious little that can be reasonably done to avoid it. Let's get a young, creative brain trust in there to build a long-term organizational culture. Gave an aggressive, feisty team under Skip and work a plan a la Houston and Baltimore. Eschew middling patchwork players like Rosario or IKF. Haven't we learned these lessons yet? Even a long journey starts sometime and this is it, optics be damned.

[Guest]

Just want to throw a few personal opinions into the fire.

Duval is a pretty good ballplayer and his production is somewhat predictable and no longer has an upside beyond that level. DLC is much younger, less expensive, and does have an upside. I wouldn't exchange them.

The starting SS that you propose is a mediocrity at best. Put some of the money that you saved on Duval and will save on Rogers, if it were my choice, and either do better, or give Amaly a shot. I'd love to see Nunez there in another year or this year if all else fails. With Johnston, Jazz, Edwards, and Nunez on the base paths, it could cause rival pitchers a major concern.

I would NEVER trade Cabrara. A pitcher goes 6 innings, gives up 6 hits and walks 2 and he is praised. Cabrara gives up 2 hits and walks 6 and gets sent down! And none of those walks get hit over a wall. We have already seen at least 3 of the pitchers that the Marlins have passed on do extremely well. And that doesn't include Lopez.

I would NEVER trade Scott either. Everyone was upset when Ng didn't get a closer. Now we've got one and you want to trade him because he might not be as effective. Any replacement might not be effective either, go with what ya got.

I too hope that Johnston transfers well to the ML. He would be my DH. He demonstrated a good pair of iron hands in the field last Spring. That scared me. A perfect DH if he hits like he has been doing down at AAA.

I sometimes feel that the Marlins ignore talent or put too much hope in another who demonstrates a lack of such. Edwards is a case in point. The guy can hit and hit for average. I would place him at 2B and leave him there, period. He is faster than Arraez, so he would lead off while Arraez hits second. That should be something to appreciate. The idea of hitting Soler second was a major misplacement. 36 HRs and only about 75 RBIs?

The idea of acquiring a catcher is imperative, but I want Fortes in there as the main man. This team must win via pitching in this division and Fortes is within their age group and is a fine defensive catcher. He is a much better hitter than he showed last year. His problem was pitch selection, and to some extent, that can be rectified via coaching. I would sink or swim with him as the main man. Guy's got a good level swing.

Rogers should not be offered a multi-year contract until he proves himself. I would try to lock up Luzardo, however. Garrett as well.

If I were to pick (and hope) for a surprise roster player it would be Ryan Weathers.

I would not get rid of Sixto just yet. If you have to get rid of a roster player, Burdick would be my choice.

Lastly there is the Garcia problem. Personally, I can't picture our esteemed owner cutting that salary loose. Sanchez has done a pretty good job of showing that he can't hit lefties. Why not at least have Garcia be his opposite side partner. If Garcia hits at all, it would be an improvement over Sanchez' futility in that role. I view Sanchez has a Jazz light.

Now go get a SS who can hit a little and 2 RH relief pitchers and fight for 3rd place.

[Guest]

I like the extensions, I'd offer Arraez 100 mm to keep him. Like also idea of trading Scott, he was great but I could see a team overpaying for a dominant LH RP

 

Put Amaya at SS since it saves money, now with Bell at first our IF is set. I'd look to trade an OF to Cleveland for whatever their willing. We have too many corner OF types.

 

Also would sign a number 2 starter, and attempt to flip one of our SP for either a SS or CF and put Jazz in other spot

[Guest OneRegend]

Agreed. The fanbase is going to hate another rebuild, but it's the right thing to do. Too many things went wrong with this current rebuild, and it ultimately cut their contention window much shorter than it could have been. Best to just try again with a wholly new core of homegrown players entirely.

[Guest OneRegend]

Sorry, but I have to disagree with you on Garcia. He's just as good against lefties as Jesus Sanchez. In that, they are both **** against lefties to a hilarious degree. Don't fool yourself into thinking Garcia will be any better as a platoon bat, because then you'll just delve deep into the same sunk-cost fallacy that has handcuffed the Marlins. You'll be doing yourself a favor by not wanting him back.