Alex Carver

In the past few weeks, Marlins fans have gone through the full gauntlet of emotions when it comes to reading prospects reports on their favorite team. After The Athletic's Keith Law controversially did not include Max Meyer in his Top 100 Prospects (or his just missed list), he then ranked the Marlins system as just the fourteenth best in the sport. This came after a fourth place ranking last season, so Law sees this system as taking a step back from where they were. Of course, that was partially due to hyped prospects like Trevor Rogers and Jazz Chisholm Jr. graduating out of prospect eligibility. Shortly after Law’s list was published, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel released his own Top 100 Prospects rankings. His list was far more Marlins-friendly, with seven Marlins included in it. That interestingly included Meyer as his top Marlins prospect, showing the lack of consensus that exists among experts on this pitcher. Furthermore, McDaniel ranked the Marlins system as the fourth best in the league, citing the elite talent at the top of their system. Law and McDaniel are not the only two experts to diverge in their opinions of the Marlins entire system. Baseball America recently ranked the system even lower than Law did, at twentieth best in the Majors. Baseball Prospects, on the other hand, was more aligned with McDaniel’s thinking in ranking the Marlins system as the sixth best. This is not to say that one expert is right, while another is wrong, but instead to show just how different opinions are and how volatile prospect rankings can be. Still, there is quite a bit of consensus in the way the experts stack up most team’s farm systems. For instance, Law and McDaniel had seven of the same ten teams in their respective top ten, albeit in different orders. Ultimately, the scouts seem to agree on which teams have the most high end talent and depth in their system, and can then differ on their opinions in exactly how good some of the top-end players are. So, what gives with the Marlins? Why is this system being viewed so differently by a variety of sources? The answer comes down to pitching. Much has been made of how unique this Marlins system is; few teams have ever had this hoard of pitching depth, but the Marlins do not possess the hitting talent to match it. That explains why there have been various rumors surrounding Miami potentially swapping some of that pitching for hitting. Trading Zac Gallen to Arizona for Chisholm Jr. a few seasons ago was the kind of deal that many view as being mutually beneficial for the Marlins and a potential trade partner again. We will see if that ultimately comes to fruition, but the point here is that the Marlins are well known around the league right now for having so many exciting pitching prospects in their minor leagues. Look no further for the answer to why there is such a difference of opinions regarding the Marlins system. Pitching is notoriously volatile, and not easy to predict. McDaniel wrote in his 2020 book, co-authored with Eric Longenhagan of Fangraphs, titled Future Value, about the difficulty in projecting young pitchers: While we think pitching is a little easier to scout, it’s harder to predict. Who will get hurt? Who will throw harder as they enter their physical prime? Who will retain that velocity into advanced age? Whose command or secondary pitches will improve? These are slippery central questions for which we still only have vague, perhaps apocryphal answers that apply across the pitching population as a whole, partially because, now more than ever, so many of those answers are dependent on player development. While McDaniel and Longenhagan do not go so far as to agree with the old adage that “pitchers are not prospects,” they do recognize that the lack of certainty with pitchers still leads many to value hitters over them. In his recent Top 100 rankings, McDaniel seemed to be leaning even more in this direction, with his top six prospects all being hitters. He even noted in his blurb about the top pitching prospect, Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez, that the industry has struggled in ranking pitchers in recent years. Looking at Baseball Prospectus’ top pitching prospect for the last decade, one can see that McDaniel is on to something here: YearPitcherCareer fWAR2011Julio Teheran12.92012Matt Moore8.22013Gerrit Cole35.52014Taijuan Walker7.92015Lucas Giolito11.02016Lucas Giolito11.02017Lucas Giolito11.02018Alex Reyes1.62019Forrest Whitley0.02020MacKenzie Gore0.0This exercise was simply done not to show that the top pitching prospects are not often successful; after all, the traits that get one ranked this high are inherently good. Throwing hard, having multiple plus breaking pitches, and quality command get a pitching prospect up to the top ranking. Instead, this just shows what McDaniel and Longenhagan were saying a few years ago: pitching is nearly impossible to predict. Cole and Giolito are star-level pitchers now, but for each of those there is a Matt Moore or Taijuan Walker who just cannot put all of the pieces together. Health seems to be one of the main reasons for that, although Julio Teheran was a highly durable pitcher for the entire decade and never lived up to the hype either. Compared to the top hitting prospects, the pitchers do not compare in projectability. Even looking at the last two names from that table, Whitley and Gore, one sees the danger in overvaluing pitching prospects. Both pitchers were drafted in the first round out of high school. High school pitching is the most risky demographic to select from, an issue that has been researched extensively by Law and others. Many of the Marlins top pitching prospects come from the international signing market, as opposed to the amateur draft, but many are still around the same age as these draft picks right out of high school stateside. Eury Perez would have only just been eligible for last year's draft, and would have certainly been a top pick, hypothetically, based on his talent. However, he is no more easily predictable just because he has already been in the Marlins system for a few years. The Marlins feature an impressive treasure chest of pitching spread across various levels, but the young pitchers are exceptionally hard to expect any particular thing out of. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are seeing such different opinions on the Marlins system. Some still have the mindset, and justifiably so, that pitching prospects are harder to project and therefore not as valuable as hitters. The Marlins could counter that by saying that their pitching prospects are so talented that at least a few of them will end up being top line starters. The result is a lack of consensus in how certain pitchers, like Meyer and Edward Cabrera, are viewed. Since these guys make up the top of the Marlins system, the system as a whole can be viewed quite differently depending on who you are listening to.

JJ Bleday (Photo by Pensacola Blue Wahoos) At the end of each professional season, each club has at least a few names that surpass expectations and cause the phrases 'who is that?' or 'where did that come from?' to be rhetorically spoken before those names become household fixtures. In 2021, it was Eury Perez, Jake Eder, Troy Johnston and Anthony Bender among others. Who will it be this year and how will they make their mark on 2022 and beyond? Herein, we provide our predictions.*Predictions labeled with SH were made by Sam Hemenway **Predictions labeled with AC were made by Alex Carver -- Bryan De La Cruz hits 20 HR as the Marlins' starting center fielder De La Cruz was a pleasant surprise for the 2021 Marlins, coming over after the trade deadline to little fanfare and playing well enough to project as a starter going into next season. De La Cruz is one of those guys who never had the advantage of having a "top prospect" billing attached to his name, but he has performed at a higher level as he has matured. Combined between AAA (in the Astros organization) and MLB, De La Cruz hit a career high seventeen homeruns in 2021. That was an increase from the eight he hit in 2019, and the first time that he had ever reached double digits in a single season. De La Cruz hit the ball hard at the Major League level, and while his BABIP indicates he was probably a bit lucky on contact, the power is real. If he can keep his strikeouts in check, than De La Cruz could lock in the starting center fielder spot and show some real power over the entire season. Moreover, he would become the first Marlins center fielder to hit 20 home runs in a season since Marcell Ozuna did it back in 2016. De La Cruz could do that while playing far more acceptable defense in center than Ozuna was able to do. Edward Cabrera makes 20+ starts, holds ERA under 4.00, contends for team lead in strikeouts Cabrera had a dazzling minor league career with theMarlins. Selected as an 18 year old in the 2016-17 international signing period, Cabrera flew through the levels, making it stateside his second year pro and all the way up to AA in 2019. Despite the lack of minor league baseball in 2020, Cabrera continued to turn heads at the Marlins’ alternate training site and was on taxi squads late in the season and during the postseason as a candidate to potentially make his debut. Despite a delayed start to 2021 due to an inflamed nerve issue in his biceps, Cabrera returned to the mound in June seemingly no worse for the wear. After two starts in Jupiter, a handful in Pensacola and six in Jacksonville, Cabrera made his MLB debut on August 25th and turned in a 6.1 IP, 3 ER quality start. The rest of Cabrera’s major league tenure was a mixed bag for a couple reasons. For the bulk of his minor league career, Cabrera’s success stemmed from his fiery heat coupled with knee-bending slider, like so: However, as a major leaguer, Cabrera broke out his third pitch changeup much more frequently. In fact, in three of his seven starts, Edward threw the changeup more than his anchor heater that can touch triple digits and that sits at 95-97. While puzzling, the most plausible reason for his increased usage is that Cabrera’s feel for the pitch was being analyzed by coaching against major league pitching during the back end of a lost season. Cabrera’s time with the Marlins gave the staff a better knowledge of where he is his stuff and the work to improve has already begun at the big league level. Looking at Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara and others, Mel Stottlemyre Jr has the ability to fully develop a changeup in the blink of an eye. And Cabrera’s was already useable and further ahead than some of those names as he came out of AAA. With a fully healthy 2022 preseason campaign and spring training, considering what the Marlins’ system does with changeups and with Gold Glover Jacob Stallings joining the fray as the Marlins’ primary catcher, we anticipate Cabrera will pop immediately to begin 2022, defending himself as the top prospect in the organization and as a guy who could one day challenge Alcantara as the long term ace of this staff. Cabrera can be that good. Nick Fortes emerges as one of the best backup catchers in MLB Like De La Cruz, Fortes emerged as a pleasant surprise in his 2021 cup of coffee despite being unheralded as a prospect. His .677 slugging percentage in the Majors is the definition of unsustainable, especially considering it came in just thirty-four plate appearances, but think about the lack of quality hitting that exists at the catching position right now. Look no further than Miami, where Sandy Leon was given 220 PA, at a horrible .183/.237/.267, last season. That is the worst offensive season, by wRC+, for any Marlins catcher with a minimum of 200 plate appearances in club history. It just goes to show the lack of offensive options at the position around the league, and how much defense is prioritized while there are still human beings calling balls and strikes. The Marlins have some options at backup catcher, which should be a fun battle to watch if there is a normal spring training that emerges when the lockout concludes. Fortes had more success than his competitors, Alex Jackson and Payton Henry, at the Major League level and should be the favorite for the job. His ability to make contact is far superior to those two, and his reputation as a defender is on the same level if not better. Ultimately, if Fortes can keep making contact, hit the ball hard, and play solid defense, he will become one of the best backups in the league by default. Having that insurance behind Jacob Stallings will give the Marlins their best caching tandem since the JT Realmuto era. Antonio Velez dominates in the upper minors; makes late season Marlins debut Antonio Velez: the ultimate diamond in the rough. A Miami native and attendee of Brandon High School in Tampa, the 6’1”, 200 pound lefty attended JuCo at Hillsborough Community College before being recruited to Florida State University in 2019. After a respectable season out of the bullpen for the Seminoles in 2019 (44.1 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 47/10 K/BB), Velez allowed just one earned run on a solo shot while striking out 21 and walking just three in 17.1 IP before COVID canceled the collegiate season. The shortened draft also caused Velez to go undrafted but the Marlins signed him shortly thereafter. After a brief appearance in the Puerto Rican Winter League, Velez began his MiLB career at the A+ level. In his first taste of pro ball, Velez was fantastic for the Snappers, holding down an even 3.00 ERA by way of a 0.88 WHIP. The lefty showed off impeccable control and command as he struck out 75 while walking just nine. In September, the 24-year-old made the jump up to the AA level where his success permeated. In three starts and 18 IP for the Blue Wahoos, Velez allowed just one earned run via a 0.78 WHIP while striking out 18 and walking just two. If Velez was going to make it to his capable ceiling, he needed to show it pretty immediately at the professional level. And in 2021, that is exactly what he did. The 6’1”, 200 pound lefty lacks size and has average velocity usually sitting 92-94. The rest of his arsenal — a best pitch biting slider in the low-mid 80s and a useable changeup — is good but not elite. However, Velez makes up for all of that with a mature knowledge for his craft, the ability to mix pitches advantageously and the ability to spot pitches with pinpoint accuracy in all four quadrants. He has also shown the ability to throw outside of the zone with purpose and garner whiffs. It takes more than 26 players to get through a major league season. A pitcher the Marlins have very little invested in as an undrafted free agent, I view Velez as a command-over-stuff guy who limits contact and plays to a ceiling 4-5 starter or multiple innings reliever. Velez should start 2022 back in Pensacola but he should be a quickly promoted to AAA. As either an injury replacement or fresh arm, he should be one of the first guys on call in the second half. Upon his promotion to his home town team, we foresee this under-the-radar arm impressing for the Marlins and earning a permanent spot on the roster. Nick Neidert becomes a part of the rotation by midseason The Marlins have a tremendous amount of pitching depth, to the point where the national focus on this team has become when they will swap some of that pitching for offense. In the meantime, the Marlins have exciting options like Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett able to contribute despite not appearing to be in the Marlins Opening Day starting rotation. One other guy worth noting, who may be the steadiest of the bunch, is Nick Neidert. Neidert has pitched 44 major league innings over the last two years to get his feet wet, and the Marlins should be ready to call on him at the first sign of injury. Neidert is not the most sexy option; he does not throw as hard or strike out as many guys as the Cabrera's of the world. However, what he offers is a pitch-to-contact profile that should limit hard contact and let a quality Miami defense make plays behind him. Neidert has yet to live up to his reputation as a pitcher with exceptional command in the Majors, but hopefully the added experience will have driven out any nerves and slight mechanical issues. Guys who can limit hard contact, and Neidert's changeup is an excellent weapon with that goal in mind, have a tendency to get "hot" for a stretch if the BABIP gods are in their favor. I am betting that could happen if Neidert gets an extended look in 2022. JJ Bleday is the best hitter in AAA in the first half; called up midseason For most of 2021, JJ Bleday was the talk of the Marlins’ system for all the wrong reasons. After posting an overall .212/.323/.373 line in AA Pensacola, the 2019 third overall pick was sent to the Arizona Fall League to continue working on his craft. There, Bleday was a different player. In 24 games, the Vanderbilt product hit .316/.435/.600 and won the league’s Co-Hitter of the Year award. JJ also added to his accolades a Fall-Stars Game MVP. Although the purely offensive friendly scope of the Arizona Fall League this past season should not be understated, what Bleday was able to accomplish after his regular season struggles was very encouraging. Though Bleday truly popped in Arizona, he began to figure it out late in the regular season. After hitting through the first week of August, the lefty slashed .263/.362/.453 in through his last 27 games of the Blue Wahoos’ slightly abbreviated season (the team’s last series was canceled due to COVID-19 concerns). Per his own admission midseason, Bleday was tinkering with his swing all season long. Here is the before (a 3-1 pitch with the bases loaded in mid-July) and after (one of his six AZFL home runs) Not only was Bleday the talk of the Arizona Fall League, he has continued to be the talk of the current development camp taking place in Jupiter. According to Fish Stripes’ Isaac Azout, Bleday stated he put on more than 15 pounds. During a sim game on February 12th, Bleday used his newfound approach and size to go yard on the first pitch of an at bat. Bleday has always had the tools to succeed as a major leaguer. After a lost 2020 season, he had to learn how hit professional pitching at the most difficult level of development. Not shying away from admitting he had adjusting to do, it took Bleday some time but he finally found his comfort zone late in the season. Then he went to work in the gym and has returned to the Marlins looking more like a physical representation of one of the strongest guys in the organization, Peyton Burdick than the former version of himself. Inasmuch as 2021 was the winter of JJ Bleday, 2022 will be the summer of JJ Bleday. I foresee him starting his age 24 season in AAA Jacksonville and having a first half as impressive as Jesus Sanchez’s 2021 campaign. He gets the call to the Marlins in July after the trade deadline and carves out his role as the Marlins’ long term left fielder. Peyton Burdick is the starting DH by September The designated hitter in the NL was long rumored to be an inevitable outcome of whatever is agreed upon in a new CBA, and commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed as much this past week. That opens up an extra spot for the Marlins offensively, which should be beneficial considering two of their top hitters from a season ago, Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar, both profile as first basemen. Cooper and Aguilar could be trade candidates at midseason, however, if the Marlins are still a year away from playoff contention. Many expect that to be the outcome; could a youth movement be the result in the second half of the season? Lewin Diaz would slot in at first base due to his exceptional glove, while a young hitter like Burdick could benefit from the addition of the extra offensive slot in the lineup. Burdick, a stocky corner outfielder out of Wright State, has hit at every level despite never getting much attention. He has hit to the point of finally getting some attention on prospect lists, and slugged 23 HR with a 137 wRC+ in 2021 at AA-Pensacola. A brief cup of coffee at AAA prior the season's expiration showed that Burdick is knocking on the doors of the Major Leagues. As long as he keeps hitting in 2022 at Jacksonville, and there is no indication with this track record that Burdick will do anything but hit, he should be given a chance to play with the Marlins. Burdick has a quality arm, but not great range in the outfield, meaning that he could be given his first Major League chance at DH in order to get his bat in the lineup. Eury Perez is the best pitching prospect in baseball by the end of the season Eury Perez is skyrocketing up prospect lists at a meteoric pace; Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic's Keith Law all included him in their recent Top 100 Propsects lists. Perez will only turn nineteen years old in April, and was not included on any of these lists a year ago. The following line is a solid way to vault one onto the radar of the experts who put these lists together: 78 IP, 1.96 ERA, 108 K, 26 BB, 0.89 WHIP. Minor league statistics are notoriously fickle, and they should not be given too much weight. However, when a pitcher this young dominates two levels it is always noteworthy. Look at it from this perspective: Perez pitched exceptionally well at two levels of A-ball last season at a time when most players his age are still seniors in high school or freshman at college. To perform that well at such a young age, while also being 6'8, 200 lbs., and hitting the upper nineties in velocity, is sure to garner some warranted attention. The sky is truly the limit for Perez. He was the youngest pitching prospect on Law's Top 100 list, showing how unprecedented his success has been. As some of the older pitchers graduate off of the list, Perez can move past the remaining prospects if he has another season that shows scouts just how much potential he has. Ronald Hernandez breaks out; emerges as top organizational prospect Since Eury Perez lit the world on fire and became a top prospect after signing his international contract in 2018, the question has often been posed: who in this Marlins’ system is next? My answer: Ronald Hernandez. Hernandez, a Venezuelan catcher, came to the Marlins as part of the 2020-2021 international signing class. His bonus: $850,000. While he may not come as quite a surprise as Perez who signed for just $200,000, he is coming fast. And this past October, he just turned 18 years old. Hernandez is a switch hitter. Looking at his 2021 splits which heavily favored his performance from the left hand side. However, in a small sample, Hernandez was able to show similar plate discipline from the opposite side. Against lefties as a right handed batter, he had a 10/6 K/BB. Hernandez is also a right handed thrower leading to the assumption he will catch up his bat to ball skills from the right side which he has all the time in the world to do. Hernandez has shown a good approach and a selective line drive swing with uppercut that could eventually come by more power. The one knock on Hernandez that inhibits that is his lack of projectable size. He comes to the Marlins listed just 6’1”, 155, leading to questions surrounding his muscle as well as his ability to stick at the catcher position. But the Marlins are opening a brand new state-of-the-art Dominican Academy this season and Hernandez is already making use of the club’s stateside facilities as a participant in the current development camp. In addition to reaping the benefits of stateside facilities and his coaches’ tutelage, on the field this winter, Hernandez is both facing off against and receiving as high as AA pitching, experiences that should be considered invaluable for one of the youngest players on the development camp roster. Already with a lot of intangibles out of the way at age 18 with fantastic athleticism, good receiving skills, an accurate arm and the ability to stick as a switch hitter, Ronald Hernandez has youth and the means on his side to pop in 2022 and potentially become the top catching prospect in the Marlins’ organization.

Edward Cabrera's highly anticipated debut came this past season, with the touted prospect throwing the first twenty-six and a third innings of his Major League career. That came over seven games started; Cabrera only threw more than four innings in one start. As the soon-to-be twenty four year old looks to make improvements heading into next season, going deeper in games will certainly be high on the wish list. How can Cabrera accomplish that goal? I went through Cabrera's first seven Major League starts to try and find an answer. My conclusion: Edward Cabrera is going to be a very good Major League pitcher. The fastball, athleticism, movement, breaking balls... there is too much here to not result in an impressive big leaguer. However, it was not long ago when Cabrera was considered to be a likely relief pitcher. The development of his slider and changeup as he matured resulted in this becoming a starter's profile, but command remains the biggest area for improvement before Cabrera can take that next step. It is important to keep in mind that Edward Cabrera has a unique repertoire. His 2021 pitch mix was fairly evenly distributed among four pitches: Pitch Type% of Pitches ThrownAverage Velocity (mph)4-Seam Fastball38%96.9Changeup24%92.2Slider20%87.8Curveball17%83.8Statistics Found via FangraphsFastball Throwing such a low percentage of fastballs is not unheard of, but is unusual, especially for a pitcher so young. One of the first thing scouts are looking for is velocity; Cabrera having a fastball that sits 95-97 and can touch triple digits gained him a lot of notice. Velocity is not everything though, as Cabrera struggled with his ability to command the pitch in his MLB starts. I think this may in part be due to Cabrera trying to make the fastball something that it is not. For instance, Cabrera's pitch has a lot of "tail" on it. The fastball has more of a 2-seam look to it at times, because it is sinking so much and has horizontal movement. Cabrera is massive, at 6'5, and the ball is coming in on a downhill plane. That fastball movement pairs very well with operating low in the zone, getting ground balls, and working with an effective changeup and slider. But, Cabrera does not use the pitch in that way. Instead, he tried to throw it up in the zone often to change the eye levels of hitters. That can be an acceptable strategy, but the movement of the pitch would be much more appropriately located with the goal of getting ground balls in mind. It is not enough of a swing-and-miss generating pitch to be used up in the zone. Commanding this pitch is easier said than done. Cabrera had several starts where he had to take something off of the fastball (sitting more around 94-95) in order to get it over the plate. That is less than ideal, so Cabrera needs to make sure he can throw the pitch at it's usual velocity for a strike when he needs it. In his September 7th start at home against the Mets, Cabrera made the mistake of throwing consecutive fastballs at the top of the zone to Pete Alonso. The first one got by, but the second sunk right into the bat path of the powerful Alonso. That sinking fastball is going to look attractive to hitters with high launch angles like Alonso, especially if it is thrown up in the strike zone. That is running right into the bat path of these powerful sluggers, as Cabrera learned to his detriment. Curveball Moreover, Cabrera's secondary pitches profile better for a groundball pitcher. He does not possess a big, 12-6 curve like many pitchers who throw up in the zone consistently do. Those pitches pair well together, for a variety of reasons including tunneling, and make it difficult on the hitter. Think of Justin Verlander or Walker Buehler as these styles of pitchers. They have the type of fastballs that hitters often describe as "rising" (even though this is not actually the case). The curveball is the pitch in Cabrera's repertoire that has the most vertical break, but it is still not a traditional 12-6 breaker. Instead, it is a slightly slower, more vertical version of the slider. Many scouts did not differentiate between the two pitches because of the similar shape to the pitches. But, Cabrera did use the pitches a bit differently in his 2021 starts. He liked to use the curveball as a "get-me-over" strike in 0-0 counts, and for the most part it worked well to surprise hitters. Cabrera not working in a traditional way was effective in this regard. In his second start, against the Mets, he managed to induce two double play balls off of the curveball because he was not afraid to throw off speed pitches in non-traditional counts. It led to some timing issues for hitters, which became awkward swings and weak contact. In this regard, Cabrera was quite successful in using his curveball. It had the highest pitch value of any of his four offerings in 2021, in part because hitters were so rarely expecting it. Also, Cabrera was able to control the pitch better than any of his other offerings. It was the only off-speed pitch that was actually in the strike zone for the majority of it's offerings from Cabrera. Slider The slider was the pitch that had scouts most excited about Cabrera entering last season, with both Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline rating it as his best off speed pitch. However, there may have been some disagreement with classifying his curveball versus the slider. In his Major League cup of coffee, the curveball was Cabrera's better pitch because he threw it in unexpected counts and was more consistently able to get it over the plate. Still, the slider was easily the pitch that Cabrera was able to command best, other than the curveball. He was often able to get it in on left handers, for a sort of backfoot slider. In his September 18th start against the Pirates, Cabrera effectively located the slider twice in the first inning for swinging strikeouts. It was his best put-away pitch in many scenarios, and resulted in the highest swinging strike percentage of any of his four offerings. This pitch can work so well when paired correctly with the fastball, because it is thrown at a high velocity still while completely breaking in the opposite direction of the tailing fastball. Both pitches work well in the bottom of the zone. Where Cabrera got into trouble with the slider was leaving it in bad locations. Because the pitch is thrown at a high velocity, it can get hit hard if it is left over the plate. This was the case in a few situations where Cabrera was trying to use the pitch as a backdoor slider against lefthanders, but it ended up flat and over the plate. Changeup The pitch that Cabrera struggled with the most in 2021 was the changeup. Yet, this still has the potential to be a plus pitch because of the spin and movement on it. Frankly, it should not be an easy pitch to hit. When located well, it is a downward moving, spiraling pitch that results in some ugly hacks. It is only a few ticks slower than the fastball, which is not typical, so it is not working in the way changeups traditionally do. As a result, Cabrera is not afraid to throw it to right handed hitters. Traditionally, changeups were taught mostly as a weapon against opposite-handed batters. The way Cabrera chose to throw it resulted in a lot of problems. This may be due to mechanical issues that Cabrera and the Marlins coaching staff needs to work through, but Cabrera was often trying to locate the pitch low in the zone and it ended up hanging over the heart of the plate. In his first two big league starts, Cabrera gave up three home runs, all of which came on changeups. He was trying to use it as his out pitch, but it ended up catching too much of the plate. https://twitter.com/Nationals/status/1430701249985490945At other times, Cabrera was not able to get the pitch close enough to the plate. Finding this balance will be imperative in 2022; Cabrera needs the pitch to be competitive enough to entice hitters to chase, while also not catching too much of the zone. Only 44% of his changeups actually ended up in the strike zone. When hitters know that the pitch will often be a ball, they can hone in and look at it only in an ideal location. This led to some trouble for Cabrera with the long ball. This make sense; as a slightly slower version of his fastball, it will be hit hard if it is left right over the plate. Summary Cabrera clearly has a lot of trust in his off-speed pitches, as evidenced by how often he throws them. But, the sinking changeup and the devastating slider work better when paired with that tailing fastball at the bottom of the zone. Those are all pitches that work best low in the zone, so it makes sense to throw them off of each other. The classic "sinker-slider-changeup" type of pitcher does not describe Cabrera perfectly, as his fastball is still a 4-seamer that can be used up in the zone. However, because of it's typically tailing movement, Cabrera may be better off adjusting his own approach and trying to throw it lower in the zone to work more effectively with his other pitches. In Cabrera's final start of the season, in New York against the Mets, he made one notable change that could be a sign of things to come in 2022. He threw fastballs for over 50% of his pitches in that start, which was the first MLB start in which Cabrera had done that. Commanding that pitch is not easy for Cabrera; he walked several batters, and threw five consecutive fastballs out of the zone at one point. However, I think that it is a good sign in that he is trying to build his pitches off of one another. His breaking pitches will be much more effective against MLB hitters when they have to keep the 97 mph fastball at the top of their mind. Ultimately, it may not be the sexy approach, but I think it will lead to Cabrera having the most success in the Major Leagues. Embracing the strengths of his current arsenal will make Cabrera a ground ball pitcher with the ability to still get swings and misses with his breaking balls. This will all have to start with Cabrera gaining a better feel for when to throw his pitches, and not having quite as even of a distribution among the four pitches. Of course, as previously noted, the best thing that Cabrera can do for himself in 2022 is improve his command. That could include his control, as his BB% of 15.8 was far higher than any Major League pitcher will be able to have success with. In a limited sample size, that should not be too much to worry about. Many pitchers struggle throwing strikes early in their Major League careers, as they adjust to nerves, mechanical aspects, and throwing against the world's best hitters. But, if Cabrera can just gain a bit more confidence in getting his fastball over the plate, he will find that hitters will have a much harder time laying off his filthy secondary pitches.

As we grapple with the increasing probability that the lockout will cause, at the very least, a significant delay to the start of the 2022 season, some preseason baseball talk has at least reestablished the hope that Spring will truly arrive eventually. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus published their annual Top 100 Prospects lists this past week, giving all baseball fans something to distract themselves from the bitter relationship between the big leaguers and the owners. The Marlins featured prominently in those lists, with top prospects Max Meyer and Kahlil Watson among the players to appear. Those players have already cemented their status as top prospects due to amateur hype and minor league performance. The question being examined here is who shall follow their path this season and emerge one year from now as a Top 100 prospect from the Marlins system. For one who is not currently on the list to rise in the experts’ rankings, they will require a breakout season in 2022. Here are ten Marlins prospects who I could see rising to that status by this time next year, in advance of the 2023 season*: * Prospects recently signed during the International Free Agency Period were not included during this exercise. While it is possible that a few could emerge on these lists by next season, we have no idea when they will be debuting with the uncertainty of the pandemic, lockout, etc. Waiting for them to debut first will allow us to form a better judgement next year on players who are so young. Jose Salas, SS 2021 (Rk-A): .305/.391/.405, 14 2B, 2 HR, 51/22 K/BB, 14 SB The main concern for the young Venezuelan prospect entering last season was his ability to make contact consistently. Salas had never appeared in a professional game prior to this season, due to signing late in 2019 and then the pandemic wiping out the 2020 minor league season. So, scouts were eager to see how the hit tool would look with Salas finally in uniform. He put some of those concerns to rest by posting a K% in the low twenties, a reasonable figure at any level. If he can keep the rate below 30% as he jumps through the minors, then Salas should be able to reach the Majors as a power hitting shortstop. That package is always a valuable one, especially with the additionally interesting characteristic of Salas being a switch hitter. Salas also offers some speed, with 14 SB over two levels last season. At 6’2 and nearly 200 pounds, Salas is growing into more power, but there is some concern about his staying at shortstop over time. The Marlins auditioned him at second and third base, so the added versatility should only keep Salas’ stock trending upwards. Some scouts also think his profile would fit in center field. Either way, this is an athletic prospect who should keep getting better. Ian Lewis, 2B 2021 (Rk): .302/.354/.491, 10 2B, 5 3B, 24/11 K/BB The top Bahamian prospect in the 2019 International Free Agent Class, Lewis looked the part in his first professional action following the cancelled pandemic season. He impressed scouts with his ability to make contact, posting just a 14.9 K% in rookie ball. The approach at the plate will need polishing, as Lewis did not walk much and was very aggressive. But, the physical tools are there. The elite trait that Lewis possesses is speed, which is beneficial on the basepaths and in the field. He was playing second in the Florida Coast League mostly due to Salas getting the nod at shortstop, but held his own there and should be able to do the same at short. Lewis is not huge, at 5’10, but does possess some pop that will probably manifest in gap-to-gap power. Once again, Lewis being a switch hitter makes his profile even more appealing. Joe Mack, C 2021 (Rk): .132/.373/.208, 22/20 K/BB Mack passed up a scholarship to Clemson to sign with the Marlins after being drafted thirty-first overall in last year’s amateur draft. He possesses that aesthetically pleasing profile of a lefty hitting catcher, with a gorgeous swing to match. His slash line from a brief Rookie ball debut indicates that Mack has great plate discipline, which was known going into the draft. His struggles with the bat, especially with slugging, is not surprising considering Mack is from New York. Players from cold-weather states typically need to be given a little bit more leeway, as they are not used to playing year-round and typically take a little longer to develop. That should excite Marlins fans, as Mack should continue developing, while it is also clear that he already has the right approach at the plate. Moreover, Mack is expected to stay at catcher as he develops due to a strong arm and plenty of athleticism. Making solid contact this season should be all it takes to get Mack on prospect lists next season. Nasim Nunez, SS 2021 (A): .243/.366/.265, 46/35 K BB, 33 SB Nunez has played just over one hundred minor league games now and has racked up over sixty stolen bases in the process. Prospects with one elite tool can be easy to dream on, and Nunez has one of those tools in his speed. With a success rate over 80% on those stolen bases, Nunez has the potential to be a special base runner. That speed translates very well into the field, where Nunez may be the best fielding shortstop prospect in the system. Furthermore, his arm should be strong enough to stay at the position long-term. Like Mack, Nunez passed up a Clemson scholarship to enter the draft. He needs to keep working on making contact consistently in order to maximize his strength on the basepaths. This will never be a power profile, but one has to like the approach Nunez takes at the plate. He needs to be a bit more aggressive, btu he clearly recognizes speed as his strength and tries to get on-base as a result. If Nunez can just show a little more promise with the bat, then the defense and speed will easily make him a prospect to get excited about. Yiddi Cappe, SS 2021 (Rk): .270/.329/.402 While prospects like Nunez possess an elite trait that makes them projectable, others just physically appear to be future monsters. Cappe would fit into the latter category, with a 6’3, 175 lbs. frame that, at nineteen years old, has room for growth. Cappe already showed an ability to hit the ball hard to all fields in his 2021 professional debut, and scouts expect the power to continue to grow. He is such a promising athlete that Cappe does have the potential to stay at the position, despite his size. Few shortstops have played the position at that height, although Carlos Correa comes to mind. Cappe is that exciting as an athlete. Fangraphs described Cappe as “toolsy” before last season, which perfectly describes why scouts will be excited about him if the production starts to come in the lower levels. Jordan McCants, SS 2021 (Rk): .224/.286/.237 McCants passed up a scholarship to Mississippi State to sign with the Marlins after being drafted in the third round of last year’s draft. In a brief Rookie ball debut, McCants displayed an all-fields, line-drive approach that scouts saw in high school. He struck out more than expected, but scouts do like McCants ability to make contact consistently as he begins to climb up the minor league ladder. More power should also come, as McCants is over six feet tall and should keep adding on muscle. That may not manifest itself in huge homerun power, but hopefully McCants can play gap-to-gap with his speed and athleticism. McCants does have the range to play shortstop, but may move to second base due to a lack of arm strength. Similar to all the guys listed above him here, McCants’ abundance of athleticism will allow him some room for error though, as he could play any of the up-the-middle (SS, 2B, CF) positions well due to in-game speed. Yoelvis Sanchez, OF 2021 (Rk): .151/.311/.279 Sanchez finally saw the field for an extended time in 2021 and showed some of the tools that scouts are excited about. He has the speed to be an up the middle player that can stick in center field. There is a lot of swing and miss in his game right now, but it is only concerning if it continues to happen for someone so young. For now, he is a projectible, athletic bat who is must-watch in 2022 to see if there have been improvements made at the plate. With a 6’2 frame, the lefty Sanchez has the sort of athleticism that can lead to breakouts and quick improvements. Dax Fulton, LHP 2021 (A-A+): 78.1 IP, 84 K, 38 BB, 4.60 ERA This pick feels a bit like cheating, as Fulton did appear on the Baseball Prospectus Top Prospects list this week. However, he has largely flown under the radar, and did not appear on the Baseball America version. He is clearly trending upwards, so it feels like a good bet that Fulton will be on more of these lists next season. Fulton was the Marlins’ second round pick in 2020, but was unable to debut until 2021 due to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery in his senior year of high school. That he showed so much promise in that debut is very exciting, considering Fulton had not been able to pitch in such a long period of time. At 6’7 and 225 lbs., Fulton has the look of an intimidating, monster left handed pitcher. He struck out batters at a high clip last year due to a fastball that sits in the mid-nineties, paired with a curveball that generates a lot of swings and misses. The fastball has a lot of downward movement, leading to an abundance of ground balls. The lack of a third pitch could lead to this being a reliever profile down the road, but Fulton did make progress with the changeup last year. If that keeps developing, he will be projected as a 2-3 starter and will be on all of these top prospect lists a year from now. Evan Fitterer, RHP 2021 (Rk-A): 30.1 IP, 33 K, 10 BB, 4.15 ERA Fitterer was one of the top high school arms in the 2019 draft, but fell to the 5th round due to a UCLA commitment. The Marlins had to give him the equivalent of second round money to entice him to sign. Fitterer is polished for his age, with a four-pitch mix that points to this being a starters profile. All four pitches project as average eventually, and the fastball has sinking action that results in a lot of ground balls. A little more velocity would make that pitch more interesting, and there is a chance for that considering Fitterer’s age and size. His control greatly improved in 2021, with a very low BB rate. That came in a small sample size, but it would be a great sign for Fitterer if that continued considering he lacks a truly dominant out pitch. He was described by MLB Pipeline as a potential Kyle Hendricks with better raw stuff, which is obviously high praise. Jake Eder, LHP 2021 (AA): 71.1 IP, 99 K, 27 BB, 1.77 ERA This is the biggest wild card on this list for a disappointing reason; Eder is not expected to pitch in 2022 after having Tommy John Surgery at the end of last season. If Eder was a Major League pitcher who could contribute to a pennant race, then he might be brought back towards the end of this summer. The knock against Eder going into 2021 was a lack of control, but he was incredibly effective in the Minors because he was able to limit the walks. A 9.4 BB% is not exceptional by any means, but with Eder’s stuff it is good enough to have success at the lower levels. Eder was a first round talent coming out of high school, but stuck to his Vanderbilt commitment instead after being drafted later by the Mets. He had an excellent college career, including closing out a CWS, and showed a fastball that could absolutely play at the next level. The slider is also a plus pitch, and there was some concern he’d be a reliever because the lack of a third pitch and control issues. Yet, Eder developed a decent changeup last year that was not easy on minor league hitters. 2021 was such a promising year for Eder that he should be on the radar for prospect experts the second he returns to the mound, with the hope that he maintains his velocity and the control has not slipped too much.

Much has been made of the focus the Marlins should have on improving their offense if they want to take the next step from promising young team to playoff contender. The seeds of such a plan were laid in 2019, when the Marlins swapped elite pitching prospect Zac Gallen for a similarly highly touted position player in Jazz Chisholm Jr. There is a chance that both teams could end up being satisfied with the results of that trade, which is rare in any scenario. Yet, two seasons later, the Marlins still have a clear organizational strength in pitching. On the MLB Pipeline Marlins Top Prospects List, five of the top seven Marlins prospects are pitchers. That list does not include young pitchers who have already made a notable impact in the Majors, such as Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Trevor Rogers. Compared to the position players, where only Chisholm has emerged as a truly promising young position player, the Marlins have a huge imbalance in their organization. This is not necessarily a problem, as great teams have been and will continue to be built on pitching. However, no Major League team is competing for a title when ranked in the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. That was the case for the 2021 Marlins, who ranked 13th in runs allowed, but 29th in runs scored. Truly, all runs are created equally though. A run saved is just as valuable as a run earned, and a ranking of thirteenth in runs allowed shows that the Marlins do have some room for improvement in that regard. The team ranked seventh in the Majors in Defensive Runs Saved, according to Fangraphs. However, out of those 55 runs saved, 24 came from four prominent Marlins who are no longer on the team (Adam Duvall, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra, and Sandy Leon). Small sample defensive stats are known for being untrustworthy as well, and it is worth noting that Miami only placed 18th in MLB in Statcast’s Outs Above Average measure. So, while the obvious fix may be to acquire big sluggers who can boost the Marlins offense, finding defensive improvements could be the better bargain. It seems like the Marlins front office could be thinking along these same lines based on their pre-lockout acquisitions. In a trade of organizational pitching depth for a position player, Miami managed to land Pittsburgh’s Jacob Stallings to be their new starting backstop in 2022. The 2021 Gold Glove winner was deserving of the award, with a +21 DRS and +8.8 in framing runs saved. Those are elite defensive statistics, and Marlins pitchers should love throwing to Stallings with all the extra strikes he can get for them. Moreover, Stallings represents a massive upgrade from last season when no Marlins catcher saved over 2.4 runs via framing. Stallings remains under team control for three more seasons, which makes him a valuable and cost-effective piece for the Marlins. A starting catcher who can hold his own with the bat, as shown by Stallings’ .246/.335/.369 and 95 wRC+ in 2021, has not been seen in Miami since JT Realmuto was traded. Don Mattingly should be able to pencil his name into the lineup and not think twice about it. Another defensive improvement was also made in the Avisail Garcia signing. While the acquisition is certainly being made with the hope that Garcia’s big bat will thump in the middle of the Miami lineup, his glove is also nothing to scoff at. Garcia was +8 in right field for Milwaukee last season. Defensive metrics have not always been as kind to Garcia, and he could have benefited from the great range of fellow Brewers Jackie Bradley Jr. and Lorenzo Cain. However, as long as Garcia can hold his own it should prevent the Marlins from playing less worthy outfielders out of position, as they were forced to do with Garrett Cooper and Jorge Alfaro in the past. So, come the end of this lockout, I will be looking to see if the Marlins can continue to make defensive improvements that will benefit the pitching staff. Statcast’s wOBA on contact measures the quality of contact that opponents generate against Marlins pitching. Their .361 wOBA on contact was a respectable ninth in the league, while their expected wOBA on contact of .365 shows that Marlins fielders did an adequate job of turning outs into runs. However, compare it to an elite defensive team in the Cardinals. The Cards defense turned an expected wOBA on contact of .365 into a .332 actual wOBA on contact. So, their pitchers were performing similarly to the Marlins squad, but the defense was making the difference. The Marlins and Cardinals would make a ton of sense as potential trade partners. St. Louis has great defenders all around the diamond, but still lacks starting pitching depth even after signing Steven Matz to a multi-year contract. The framework of a deal could include elite defensive centerfielder Harrison Bader and the recently benched Paul DeJong. Both are under team control for multiple seasons at reasonable rates, making them incredibly valuable. It would take a sizable package in return, but both Bader and DeJong would represent defensive upgrades that would also fortify Miami’s lineup. If a DH is added into the NL, then signing Kyle Schwarber or Nicholas Castellanos would make a ton of sense for Miami. It would provide a much-needed slugger without having to play a poor fielder. Ideally, that ends up being the scenario, and then the Marlins can focus on improving their defense instead of just looking for bats. One potential position to pursue could be up the middle defense. Statcast’s OAA measure did not view Jazz Chisholm or Miguel Rojas favorably, and the measurement factors in range considerably. Both rated better by DRS, which is worth noting, but an improvement could at least be made in finding an adequate backup for those middle infield positions. Isan Diaz cost the team -7 OAA, and was also dreadful with the bat. Miami could hope to let him develop further in AAA, while finding a stopgap to handle the position in 2021. Joey Wendle should be able to help in this area, although he played more at third base last season. All in all, when examining the Marlins roster as currently constructed, it is clear that they have already made some defensive upgrades. Garcia, Stallings, and Wendle will all be able to contribute and turn more balls in play into outs for their pitchers. This will be vital as the Marlins try to develop a run suppression machine through their plethora of elite pitching prospects. More can be done however, beyond just focusing on adding offense for the rest of the offseason. Giving Lewin Diaz more playing time would be another way to further improve the defense, although Mattingly will have to weigh that against keeping the big bats of Jesus Aguilar or Cooper in the lineup. Another area for defensive improvement the team has already considered is center field, where we know the Marlins were in the bidding for bringing back Starling Marte. Clearly a weak spot in the current depth chart, a solution may have to be found on the trade market. However, a monumental move for a star like the Orioles’ Cedric Mullins, or the aforementioned Bader, would be a great way to improve on both offense and defense. The Cardinals were carried by their great defense into the postseason in 2021, showing just how much a great defense can save runs for their pitchers. The Marlins should hope to do the same in 2022. With the highest ground ball percentage allowed in baseball last year, Miami will need infielders who have the range to make those plays.

Photo by A. Messerschmidt/Getty ImagesAfter the major league dream is realized, another takes its place: making it to Cooperstown as a Hall of Famer. Every year, the Baseball Writers Association of America holds those aspirations in their hands when they fill out their ballots. This year, they had their hands very full. Several candidates, specifically those connected to steroid usage, in or nearing their last year of eligibility were joined by a new class of potentially deserving players in their first year on the ballot.How should voting shake out? Who should be part of the class of 2022? Here is our vision.— Barry Bonds There are certain names that just simply synonyms with the game of baseball, names that everyone the world over is aware of whether they are an avid fan or a disinterested party. Names such as Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays… and Barry Bonds. But why is Bonds so well known and how many of those reasons are positive cases for him to receive a Cooperstown plaque? In my opinion, many. Bonds’ first known steroid offense was in 1998 which undoubtedly assisted Bonds during the second half of his career. But before his first known offense, Bonds was already on a path to Cooperstown. From 1986 through 1997, Bonds hit .288/.408/.551 with 374 homers, an absurd 1.28 walks to strikeouts ratio and 417 stolen bases along with a 13.3 dWAR. He was already the epitome of a five tool player. Though tainted by his PED use, the moments Bonds took part in during the late 1990s and early 2000s are part of baseball lore. The entire world looked on as he, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa battled to be the first player to break the single season home run record in ‘98 and the whole world was watching and following along as Bonds sent his record breaking 762nd career home run into the night at Oracle Park in 2006. Simply put, in those days, Barry Bonds was baseball. The name Barry Bonds is also synonymous with cheating. The pressing issues are unfortunately also part of baseball lore: his aforementioned steroid usage beginning in that unforgettable 1998 season, the fact that he was on trial for lying under oath as well as a number of other charges and the media tornado he was at the center of for many years. But inasmuch as Bonds’ usage created at least somewhat of an advantage, he played during an age where a good portion of the league was using alongside him, some of which graces the Hall today. For a very long time, both before, during and after the height of the steroid era, from spitballs to trash cans to science, baseball players have been looking for an advantage. In a recent interview, Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Gibson, speaking about steroids, said that if he was in the position in which he recognized the opposition gaining an advantage on him and he noticed a way to get it back, he may have made the same choice. Considering he could have made a case for the Hall if he retired after the 1997 season, those who omit Bonds for his steroid usage seems like punishment for getting caught and furthermore a failure to come forward. The same can be said for others on this exact ballot. It is high time for some of these omissions, Bonds’ included, to come to an end. There are other secondary factors which hurt Bonds’ case for Cooperstown. He was known as a subpar teammate and per David Samson, an equally subpar staff member during his tenure as hitting coach in 2016. But inasmuch as voters are tasked with taking an entire individual’s career into account, both on and off the field, they are also asked to consider an individual’s mark on the history of the game. Simply put, you cannot tell the story of baseball without Barry Bonds. He may not be a stand up guy, but his imprint on this game is just too deep. Barry Bonds needs to be a Hall of Famer. Roger Clemens Not too far removed from the shoes of Bonds is Roger Clemens. The other main culprit in the Mitchell Report and the other most predominant figure in a media and legal frenzy that spanned nearly an entire decade, Clemens’ name holds the same tarnish due to suspected PED usage. Like Bonds though, Clemens was well on his way to a plaque before his first suspected use case in the same year, 1998. After debuting in 1984, Clemens was 213-118. He held down a 2.97 ERA via a 1.147 WHIP and got very close to eclipsing the 3000 strikeout mark within his first 14 seasons. During that time frame, he walked just 924, giving him a strikeouts to walks ratio of 3.12. Accordingly, before ‘98, Clemens won an MVP and four of his seven Cy Young awards. More so than Bonds, Clemens, who last toed the rubber in 2007, was dominant without any known use of steroids for the bulk of his career and very likely would be there had he retired after the 1997 season. But also more than Bonds, Clemens holds some major character issues. His approach to pitching garnered him the moniker of ‘headhunter’. He’s also well known for a complaint about having to carry his own baggage, having a clause in his contract that did not require he join his club (the Yankees) on road trips he wasn’t pitching in later in his career and multiple run ins with media. But, again, a Hall of Fame vote has not and should not and has not required the tag ‘nice guy’. The best storyteller could not possibly depict baseball without Clemens who was Hall of Fame caliber while sober for much of his career. And for that reason, Roger Clemens is a Hall of Famer. Andruw Jones One of the more polarizing figures on the ballot, Jones coupled immense power with absolutely astounding defense. A .254/.337/.486 career hitter, Jones was the equivalent of Giancarlo Stanton (so far) at the plate for 17 seasons but his defense sets him apart. In addition to ranking within the top 40 on the all time career home run list with 434 and the fact that he hit at least 30 in seven of his 16 full seasons, Jones supplanted his lack of batting average with a 24.4 dWAR, a mark which ranks 22nd all time in MLB history. In 2007, Jones won a 10th consecutive Gold Glove tying him with the likes of Al Kaline, Ichiro Suzuki and Ken Griffey Jr. Jones declined very suddenly late in his career which apparently wears heavy on the mind of voters as he only garnered a minuscule percent of the vote during his early years on the ballot but voters were kinder to Jones in 2021 when he garnered 43% of the vote. Based on his prodigal power and wizardry on defense, Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer. David Ortiz Big Papi is a .286/.380/.552 hitter, Ortiz is responsible for invigorating one of the most iconic teams in baseball and propelling them out of their curse and to three World Series titles. And he did not not stop until the day he retired. In his age 40 season in 2016, Ortiz had one of his best seasons as a pro, leading the MLB in doubles with 48, slugging percentage at .620 and OPS at 1.021. One of the most prolific home run threats in recent history, Ortiz slammed 30+ long balls in five straight seasons from 2002-2007. He hit 20+ homers in 15 straight seasons from ‘02-2016. While some may blame the lefty hitter’s success on Fenway Park, he actually hit more homers away from Boston (319) than at it (222). On top of his on field success, David Ortiz was a leader and a community steward. And he should be a Hall of Famer. Scott Rolen Rolen is one of the best third basemen to ever play baseball. His 70.4 WAR ranks him 10th all time in that category behind all but one player (Adrian Beltre) who is not in the Hall. Included in that is a 21.2 career dWAR which allowed Rolen to do things like this at the hot corner: Rolen was considered one of the best players in baseball for the first eight years of his career, including his rookie season in which he won Rookie of the Year. From 1997-2004, he slashed .287/.379/.524 with 222 homers, a 917/587 K/BB and a 10.8 dWAR. After being derailed by injury in 2005, he was the second best position player on the 2006 St Louis Cardinals. He hit .296/.369/.518, propelling them to the World Series title. He was also still a force up until his age 35 season when he made his sixth of seven All-Star games and hit .285/.358/.497. Off the field and in the clubhouse, Rolen had an overall good rapport and continues to stay involved in it to this day. In 2010, he was awarded the Reds’ Good Guy Award. Despite some friction between he and his first team, the Phillies, his former teammate Curt Schilling has been campaigning for Rolen on social media. In 2018, Rolen became a coach at the University of Indiana, a post he still holds. One of six only third basemen to hit 300+ homers with an OPS+ of at least 120 (four of the other five are in the Hall) and the 10th best guy to ever man the hot corner man per JAWS, Scott Rolen belongs in the Hall of Fame. Curt Schilling Schilling is a very polarizing case. One of the most outspoken figures in the world of baseball and other arenas since his retirement particularly on social media, he enters his last year on the ballot. But he didn’t want to be on it. After coming 16 votes shy of election in 2021, Schilling requested that his name be removed from the ballot this year. However, Schilling’s request was denied and he will be up for election for the 10th and final time in 2022. With 3,116, Schilling ranks 15th on the all time strikeouts leaderboard. Every player ahead of him has a plaque in Cooperstown. Amongst those 15 players, Schilling has the best walks to strikeouts ratio at 4.38. Those command figures rank him second all time amongst players with at least 1,000 IP. Despite somehow never winning a Cy Young award, Schilling placed twice three times. He is one of only six players of all time to post three 300+ strikeout seasons. Since the start of his career in 1988 to the present day, Schilling ranks third all time in complete games with 83 behind only Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson. Furthermore, Schilling was a crutch in the postseason, going 11-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 19 games. He pitched into the 6th inning in all but two of those games, tossed four complete games and allowed one run or less in 12 of them. Schilling was relied upon in elimination games four times. His squad won each of those contests. He was named the NLCS MVP in 1993 and co-MVP of the 2001 World Series. Schilling’s provocativeness since his retirement has caused some writers to leave his name unchecked in his nine years on the ballot and his recent denouncement of the BBWAA may cause more writers to do the same in his final year of eligibility. He has many character issues that have haunted him since his retirement and his reputation as a teammate was not the greatest. The BBWAA would be risking quite a bit giving Schilling a free microphone at his potential induction ceremony. The question is did Schilling do enough negative off the field to take his vote away? In my opinion, he did not and as one of the best pitchers in baseball for the bulk of two decades, he gets a check mark. Gary Sheffield A shoe in for 20+ homers every season, Sheffield was one of the best power hitters in baseball for much of his 22 year career. The offensive metrics speak for themselves: .292/.393/.514, 509 HR, 1676 RBI. Sheffiled was a 1997 World Series champion with the Marlins, a nine time All-Star and placed within the top three in MVP voting three times. Possibly the most staggering statistic Sheffield posted was his supremely low strikeout rate of 10.7%, rare to find in a pure slugger. Amongst the members of the 500 home run club, Sheffield’s is the third lowest. These numbers are certainly becoming of a Hall of Fame plaque. But there is a lot of evidence which has caused Sheff to fall well short of election his first six years on the ballot. Firstly, he was a defensive liability, posting a -27.7 dWAR. Secondly, he was mentioned in the Mitchell Report and admitted taking part in the BALCO scandal in sworn testimony. And thirdly, Sheffield didn’t make many friends among the media during his career. He was also in legal trouble at a very young age and is known for several negative instances with team management and fans which brought questions regarding his professionalism and character to the surface, questions that swirled around Sheff for much of his career. The ultimatum: do Sheffield’s offensive metrics hold enough weight to propel him to Cooperstown or not? I believe they do. Like Bonds, while he may not have been the best guy, Sheffield was an indomitable offensive force whenever he stepped to the plate for two decades. His signature bat waggle and incredible strength and bat speed was known all around the baseball world and is still often imitated to this day. Sheffield is one of 22 players of all time to hit 500+ home runs and post a 140 OPS+. 15 of those players are current Hall of Fame members. Though Sheffield has trended upward in recent years, it is in doubt that he will make it before his years of eligibility are up, but in our mind, he’s a Hall of Famer. And he’s wearing a Florida Marlins hat. Billy Wagner As a one inning specialist who doesn’t see much action, you need to be pretty special to warrant a Hall of Fame case. Wagner was that good. Wagner debuted in 1995 and took over the Astros’ closer role almost immediately. After posting nine saves in 1996, he posted at least 20 in 10 of his next 11 campaigns, the only omission being an injury hampered 1998 season. Wagner’s control numbers were absolutely ridiculous. His 11.9 K/9 is the highest in major league history for anyone who threw at least 800 IP. He contrasted that with a 2.99 BB/9. In addition, he Wagner was a master at limiting damage. His 0.998 WHIP, the second lowest WHIP in MLB history, proves that he was nearly untouchable and one of the best shutdown arms to ever toe the rubber. Looking at Wagner next to Trevor Hoffman who got his plaque in 2018, the similarities are pretty glaring. StandardRkNameFromToAgeWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFERA+FIPWHIPH9HR9BB9SO9SO/W1Trevor Hoffman1993201025-426175.4492.8710350856006011089.1846378347100307581133904943881413.081.0587.00.82.59.43.692Billy Wagner1995201023-384740.5402.31853070300422903.0601262232823002611963314336001872.730.9986.00.83.011.93.99Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used Wagner’s case when compared to Hoffman produces either support or the ability to leave him off depending on which point of view you share. On the plus side for Wagner, he struck out 63 more hitters than Hoffman in less innings while posting a very comparable WAR of 27.81 (Hoffman’s was 28.1). On the other side, is the argument about workload. Hoffman held down a 2.87 ERA in 1089.1 IP while Wagner held down his 2.31 ERA in 903 IP. Did Wagner do enough to warrant the Hall of Fame selection? It seems to be a split vote as Wagner garnered 46.4% of the vote last year. I am of the opinion that as one of the stingiest arms of all time in high leverage situations for nearly two decades, Billy Wagner belongs in Cooperstown. Just Missed Manny Ramirez A lot like Sheffield, Ramirez struggled defensively but he could certainly make it on his offensive metrics alone. Over 19 seasons, he was a .312/.411/.585 hitter with 555 home runs which ranks 15th on the all time list. A triple crown threat in many of his seasons, a 12 time All-Star, a nine time Silver Slugger and a two time World Series champion, Manny is undoubtedly one of the greatest offensive threats the game has ever seen. But there is a big problem: Manny spent too much time being Manny. Ramirez did not appeal or make any sort of public statement; he just left. Before that, there were frequent moments of controversy that tarnish Ramirez’s name beyond repair. In 2008, Ramirez, one of the most beloved figures among Red Sox fans, was traded to the Dodgers after he assaulted a 64-year-old traveling secretary. In 2011, Ramirez arrested charged with domestic battery in an altercation with his wife. Beyond those instances, Manny Ramirez was a selfish player. And it goes past the time he take a coffee break inside the Green Monster during a game or made an inexplicable dive to cut off an outfield relay throw. During his time in Cleveland, he was known for regularly showing up late to team events and he regularly skipped fan friendly events and All-Star Games for unexplained reasons and phantom injuries that miraculously cleared up right afterward. In our opinion, Ramirez just had far too many character issues, which voters are encouraged to take into account. Although you don’t have to be mother Theresa to make Cooperstown, you need to be better than this. I simply cannot in good confidence put his face next to ultimate sportsmen and stewards such as Derek Jeter, Ken Griffey Jr, Cal Ripken Jr and others. Alex Rodriguez A-Rod’s on field merits are the stuff of legend. Over 500 home runs, over 3,000 hits, three MVPs, 14 All-Star selections, a World Series and the 16th best WAR of all time. On the field, he was one of the best baseball players of all time. But every single one of his accomplishments is marked with an asterisk due to his infamous use of steroids. After breaking into the MLB at the height of the steroid era where many of his role models were using, it is doubtful we ever saw who A-Rod, the natural specimen, truly was. Two suspensions, a web of lies and deceit, a hand in spreading the word about South Florida based biogenesis to players around the league and not enough evidence as to who he was without PEDs. A-Rod’s legacy is simply too tarnished to warrant election. Todd Helton When Larry Walker made the Hall last year and broke the barrier of players who called Coors Field home for much of their career, Helton backers hoped it would open the Hall doors for him. While Helton gets very close as a career .316/.414/.539 career hitter, there are some striking differences between he and Walker. Firstly, Walker played in and was good in other home parks. Helton spent his entire career with Colorado, taking advantage of the altitude and small dimensions of the most hitter friendly stadium in baseball. Secondly, Walker was a good defender, posting a plus 2 dWAR in the outfield. Helton, playing the least demanding defensive position on the diamond, first base, was the opposite. He posted a dWAR of -5. Along with the typical Coors-influenced skewed home/road splits, Helton’s BABIP was equally skewed in his favor. He had good fortune wherever he went, BABIPing .342 at home and .319 on the road. Helton’s offensive numbers are impressive but with the Coors factor, good luck and bad defense, he just misses our ballot. Sammy Sosa Sosa was one of three players involved in the baseball spectacle of the 90s, the race to 62 home runs. He is reknowned as one of the greatest power hitters of all time, ranking ninth on the all time home runs list with 609 and the final member of the 600 home run club. But he had a lot of help. Before his first suspected use of steroids in that 1998 season, Sosa was not anywhere close to being on the Hall of Fame track. From 1989 to 1997, Sosa hit .257/.308/.469 with 207 homers. After his first suspected use, he hit .287/.372/.588 with 402 homers over the course of his last nine seasons, including at least 40 in each season between ‘98 and 2003. On top of steroid usage, Sosa had other performance enhancing issues, namely the discovery that he was inserting corks into his bats in 2003. Unlike Bonds, Sheffield and Clemens who were on a Hall of Fame track before their first suspected use case, steroids and other performance enhancing measures made Sosa a completely different specimen. Without them, it is arguable he would have gotten close to the accolades he managed. And for that reason, he is not a Hall of Famer. — Presenting my 2022 mock ballot:

Jacob Stallings (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) Derek Jeter is used to winning. So when the fourth year of his ownership reign of the Miami Marlins ended with 67-95 record, he and Bruce Sherman were determined to become competitive. The club took a big step in that direction pre-lockout, making multiple moves to improve the major league roster for 2022. The biggest of these moves happened last week. Back in 2019, the Marlins believed they had JT Realmuto’s heir apparent in Jorge Alfaro, especially after he hit .262/.312/.425 while tossing out 33% of his runners. But after hitting a combined .240/.282/.343 over the COVID-stricken 2020 season and an injury hampered 2021 while being a bottom of the barrel framer and far and away the league leader in passed balls in his age 27-28 seasons and with no prospects close to a major league ready berth, catcher clearly became the biggest gaping hole on the Marlins’ 40-man roster. In a thin market that is only getting thinner as baseball evolves around the catching position, the Marlins hit a home run by acquiring Jacob Stallings, a 31-year-old Gold Glove winner with three years of control remaining on his contract. Headed to the Pittsburgh Pirates are RHP Zach Thompson, OF Connor Scott (Fish on the Farm’s #13 prospect) and RHP Kyle Nicolas (#18). Stallings comes to the Marlins less than a month away from his 32nd birthday. Drafted by the Pirates in the seventh round in 2012 out of the University of North Carolina where he hit .293/.396/.437 over two seasons, Stallings’ MiLB career was a rags-to-riches story. Never ranked a top 30 prospect by MLB Pipeline, Stallings was still grinding it out in AAA into his age 28 season and he successfully passed through waivers twice. But in 2019, things started clicking for Stallings. Serving as the Pirates backup catcher, he stuck with the MLB team the entire year and performed well above his career MiLB numbers. In 71 games, Stallings hit .262/.325/.382 with six homers and held his K rate under 20%. Above his offense though, the backstop begun proving his defensive prowess at the big league level, posting a 1.4 dWAR. This season, after the shortened 2020, Stallings got the starting nod and played in by far the most baseball games he has ever played in a single season. At the back end of the lineup, Stallings was frustrating for opposing pitchers whom he made earn their outs and stretched their arms out. His 11.5% walk rate ranked 13th among 68 qualified catchers and was a primary factor for his respectable .335 OBP. On defense, Stallings was otherworldly; the best catcher in the NL and one of the best defenders in all of baseball. From behind the plate, Stallings saved a total of 21 runs, second to only Rockies’ infielder Ryan McMahon. In addition, he did not allow a single passed ball , the only catcher that played over 500 innings to accomplish that feat an extending a streak that spans nearly two calendar years. Per Statcast, he ranked 17th out of 59 catchers in pitch framing efficiency. In Stallings, the Marlins get an experienced player who is an absolute wizard behind the plate, who knows how to handle a young pitching staff and who does more at the plate than the league average catcher. He will be under team control until 2026. So, in addition to Zach Thompson who came up in one of the Marlins’ multiple moments of rotational need and impressed, what did a Gold Glove backstop cost in terms of prospects? RHP Kyle Nicolas 2021 Stats (A+-AA): 99 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 136/49 K/BB Nicolas, a soon-to-be 23 year old, is a product of the shortened 2020 Draft from Ball State University. After beginning the 2021 season with the A+ Beloit Snappers, the 6’4”, 223 specimen got his call up to AA at a pretty precarious time: right after his worst career start. While he was thought to be joining the Blue Wahoos to fill in for Jake Eder and Max Meyer who were participating in the MLB Futures Game at All-Star Weekend, Nicolas stuck with the AA team for the rest of the season and performed well by overall metrics. In five starts and 25.2 IP with the Wahoos, Nicolas tossed to a 2.10 ERA via a 31/13 K/BB and 50/25 K/BB. Nicolas is prized for his heavy fastball velocity that is capable of triple digits but he also has a nasty primary breaker. He also owns a decent budding changeup. So what still needs to be done? Nicolas and his big frame and levers did show he is prone to losing the zone from start to start. He also showed that his velo can dip as he gets later into innings and the changeup, although usable, has some ground to make up on his other two offerings. Nicolas ended the year on a very strong note, tossing his longest career outing of 6.2 IP on August 24th. With size, heat and a good mix, Nicolas is a few adjustments away from proving he can stick as a big league rotational piece. At the very least, his high floor is that of a dominant high leverage reliever. OF Connor Scott 2021 Stats (A+): .276/.333/.446, 10 HR, 41 XBH, 92/31 K/BB Since being in the organization since 2017 through a down year in 2019 and a lost 2020, people have forgotten the name Connor Scott. In 2021, the Florida native and Plant High School alum proved he is just getting started. Connor Scott is still just a recently turned 22 year old. People forget that. Playing against competition nearly a year and a half older than him on average in the High A ranks, Scott had an impressive season. He began making impressions by showing up to camp quite a bit visibly larger than his 6’3”, 187 listed size. He also looked like he knew how to use the added mass with a stronger swing that had a more straight through line drive inducing action. The improved size and swing were a major catalyst for Scott that he carried through the entire season. Scott began 2021 with the A+ Snappers. After missing two weeks beginning at the end of May with a foot injury, Scott struggled through June and most of July. Starting late in July though, Scott’s numbers began to spike. From July 25th through the end of the season, he hit .322/.356/.557 with a 144 wRC+ while keeping his strikeout rate at a manageable 22%. After playing in just 27 games in 2019 and of course missing all of 2020, Scott is a guy who’s career has been very disjointed. To see him come back in the best physical shape of his career, remain healthy for most of the season and play his best baseball at the highest level he’s ever played at while still facing off against hitters nearly a year and a half older than him on average was very encouraging and a potential turning point in his minor league career. Scott joins a Pirates organization in the midst of a rebuild but also a system that holds a cornerstone center fielder at the big league level in Bryan Reynolds as well as several near major league ready outfield prospects in Travis Swaggerty and Scott clone, Calvin Mitchell. With Scott still at least a year away from the majors, the Pirates have the freedom to take their time was Scott and assure carry over from his strong finish at A+ last year to the upper minors beginning in 2022. If he can, Scott, who holds elite sprint speed and a plus glove, still has the potential for all five tools and could stick as a starting center fielder at the next level. As the old adage goes, you need to give up value to get value and both clubs did both of those things in this trade. The Marlins filled the biggest hole on their roster, not just at the big league level but throughout the entire organization with one of the best backstops in baseball and the rebuilding Pirates bolstered their outfield with a youthful potential five tool prospect. Sometimes, trades are mutually beneficial for both sides. The Pirates and Marlins matched up perfectly and executed a very reciprocal deal.

Photo by Beloit Sky CarpAhead of their first full season in their brand new ballpark, the Beloit baseball club has been renamed to honor long-time residents of the city that have now become the team’s newest and closest neighbors along the Rock River. Introducing the Beloit Sky Carp. On Monday afternoon, the club debuted its new moniker that was selected by fans out of five possible choices. The new name was one of over 1,000 submitted by fans and won the fan vote among five finalists by a small margin. Coming in second by a small margin of less than 50 total votes was the Supper Clubbers. Cheeseballs, Polka Pike and Moo rounded out the fan vote in that order. The on field product features four jerseys and caps designed by Brandiose, the same minds behind the creative branding of clubs such as the Amarillo Sod Poodles, Hartford Yard Goats and Rocket City Trash Pandas. At the unveiling on Monday which was done by elementary school scholars, in place of players modeling the team’s new colors, community leaders were given the honor of being the first individuals to publicly don Sky Carp uniforms. The unveiling this week was the last step in the process. But from the very beginning of the two year long process, Studer assured the team would be remade for the city of Beloit by the city of Beloit. The term sky carp is slang for a goose — but not just any goose. Indigenous to lower Wisconsin, the sky carp, unlike many other breeds of waterfowl, do not migrate from the region during the winter months. Like the good majority of their season ticket holders, sky carp are full-time Beloit residents. Two of the four jerseys that will be worn by the Sky Carp have an uncommon characteristic: they both are emblazoned with the name of the home city. One of these is the traditional road gray; the other is an alternate jersey that can be worn either at home or on the road. Giving the Sky Carp the ability to honor their home city at ABC Supply Stadium was an important inclusion aspect for ownership. Another sign of Quint Studer and his team’s commitment to the city of Beloit appears in the Sky Carp’s primary and third cap logo. One of the most aesthetically striking aspects of the rebrand, the wrench lends itself to the history of Beloit. The logo outlined in ‘Rock River Blue’ features the wrench being both clutched and bitten by the goose, figuratively paying homage to Beloit, a city that was made by blue collar workers and a city that is still building towards a more prosperous future. The wrench is modeled after one made by a local area manufacturer, Fairbanks Morse. Within the Sky Carp’s third cap logo, their underwater goose emblem, the Sky Carp promote inclusion and honor one of the most prolific moments in Beloit history. The goose can be seen wearing aviator style goggles which honor a local icon, Bessica Raiche, the first woman to pilot an airplane on a solo mission in 1907. Raiche’s story is also becoming of the industrial background of Beloit: Raiche and her husband built her craft in their living room, utilizing a piano bench as a workspace. In order to get the craft, made out of bamboo, silk and wire to launch, the couple removed the front of their home. As big as Monday was and as pleased as the team is to adopt a new name, there is still work to do in terms of adopting a new mascot. For that, the Beloit branding team will once turn once again to the same people responsible for bringing the Sky Carp name to Beloit: fans. Over the course of the next several weeks, Rock County schools will be asked to draw their version of the Sky Carp mascot, complete with a new name the club hopes to finalize before Opening Day 2022. Although the club will be replacing a long-time stalwart in the Beloit community, Snappy the Turtle will not be completely gone. As Studer told us at the beginning of the season, the Beloit club will maintain the trademark to the Snappers allowing them to utilize the name on special occasions. As a bonus to their hopeful connection to their home city, the new color scheme for the Sky Carp which was put in motion well before Beloit’s affiliation with the Miami Marlins should allow the club to connect with fans of the parent club’s popular 2019 rebrand. This is a breaking story that will be updated shortly

Sloan Park (Photo by VisitMesa.com) With the return of MiLB in 2021 comes the return of the fall and winter leagues this offseason. The pinnacle of these leagues is the Arizona Fall League where clubs traditionally send older prospects for a longer look after the regular season and for more reps and experience in order to fill holes in different areas of need. After five years of playing for the Salt River Rafters, this season, Marlins’ prospects will once again join the Mesa Solar Sox who play their home games at Sloan Park. They will share the dugout with prospects from Orioles, Cubs, Athletics and Blue Jays systems. Miami’s participants will be: RHP Justin Evans RHP Evan Fitterer LHP Josh Simpson LHP Jefry Yan C Will Banfield INF Troy Johnston OF JJ Bleday OF Kameron Misner Here is a closer look at each of these players and the ‘why’ behind their assignment. RHP Justin Evans 2021 Stats (A-AA) - 34 G, 45 IP, 6.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 53/24 K/BB Evans is a Marlins’ 2018 19th round pick out of Columbus State University. As a collegiate player, Evans both pitched and played the infield. He hit .281/.382/.445 in 474 ABs but Miami took stock in his future as a reliever where he had a 3.27 ERA in 22 IP, including 11.2 IP of one run ball (0.77 ERA) in which he posted a 14/2 K/BB in his junior year. Since his selection, Evans’ pro career has been marred by injury. He did not pitch in the pros in his draft year and did not pitch in 2019. 2021 was the first time he saw an affiliated mound. During his time with Jupiter, he showed some flashes including a heater up to 96 and a curveball with spin above 2600 RPMs. The Marlins are using the AZFL to allow Evans to make up for lost time and to gauge where to assign this victor of three levels going in to 2022. RHP Evan Fitterer 2021 Stats (Rk-A) - 18 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 52/22 K/BB Fitterer is a 2019 fifth round prep pick out of Aliso Niguel High School in Southern California who broke into pro ball by tossing 22.2 innings worth of 2.38 ERA, 1.41 ERA, 19/12 K/BB ball in the GCL. After the missed 2020 season, Fitterer began the 2021 season on the extended spring training injured list. After two rehab outings, Fitterer received his call up to A Jupiter on July 24th. Appearing in seven games (six starts) for the Hammerheads, the 21-year-old righty tossed 25.2 IP worth of 4.56 ERA, 1.40 ERA ball. His K/BB stood out (27/6) as did his impressive pitch repertoire. A tosser of four pitches, Fitterer showed a fastball up to 96 (sitting 92-94). with a curveball in the high 70s-low 80s capable of a 3000 RPM spin rate. He also showed a usable slider. Fitterer, a 6’3”, 192 pound righty, joins the AZFL as the youngest member of the Marlins’ invitees (21) with the intention of making up for lost reps and the hope of building his arsenal and showing he can compete against older competitors. LHP Josh Simpson 2021 Stats (Rk/A+) - 45.2 IP, 5.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 62/19 K/BB Simpson, the Marlins’ final pick of the 2019 draft, impressed in his first showing in pro ball that season. Assigned to short season Batavia after just a single inning in the GCL, the lefty tossed 23 innings worth of six run ball by way of a 1.08 WHIP and 26/6 K/BB, earning himself a spot in the New York Penn League’s postseason All-Star Game. This season, Simpson was assigned to A+ Beloit where he started the season strong out of the Snappers’ pen, giving up just two runs in his first 15.1 IP. After allotting 15 earned runs in four less innings in June though, Simpson was placed on the IL with an injury that would cost him nearly two full months. The 6’2”, 190 pound southpaw made it back up to Beloit after a rehab stint in the FCL and the Snappers put him in the rotation for four starts. On September 14, he finished the season strong by totaling single game career highs in innings pitched with five and strikeouts with nine while allowing three runs. Simpson has a two pitch combo. His mostly straight fastball that sits 93-95 but he can add a bit more to if needed. His overwhelming issue with that pitch has been its command. When placing it on the lower half, it can help contribute to his great 30% K rate and good 54% ground ball rate but it also had its part in his allotment of six homers and 20% line drive rate. Simpson’s best pitch is a mid-80s slider with late tilt that he can use on both sides of the zone and get in on the back foot of opposite side hitters with wipeout dive. He owns a high 70s curveball as well that he uses as a mix in. Simpson, who just turned 24 last month, heads to Arizona to take on the most advanced hitters he’s ever faced in his pro career with the intent of gauging his talent level against upper minors competition and making up for time lost to injury in 2021. His velo and ability to spin the slider from the left side make him an intriguing arm. The lack of a third pitch and his limited size will likely relegate his big league ceiling to the bullpen but he could make a good living there as a guy who can provide multiple innings if needed. LHP Jefry Yan 2021 Stats (A/AA) - 31 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 51/25 K/BB The oldest Marlin invited to Arizona, Yan is a 25-year-old lefty who has had quite the interesting career path. Selected by the Angels as a 17-year-old in 2014, Yan threw in two Dominican Summer League seasons including an impressive 34.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, campaign as an 18 year old in 2015 before getting assigned stateside. According to Francys Romero, Yan suffered an injury in extended spring training that year and was placed on the restricted list when he refused to go back to the DR to rehab. The injury also forced him to miss all of 2017 and he was released a year later. The Marlins took a flier on Yan after watching him throw in semi-pro ball. Already up to the high 80s when he was signed by LA seven years ago, Yan grew advantageously into his then lanky frame and is now able to hit the mid-upper 90s regularly with his moving four seamer which sits 93-95 and can touch 97. He also throws a low 90s two seamer that he uses for tunnel and to change eye levels. Yan’s secondary is a big sweeping slider in the mid-80s that shows spin rates in the upper 2200 RPM range with wipe out action. Yan spent the summer making hitters look silly with that pitch, both in A ball and in his first taste of the upper minors AA. Yan is also quite the showman. A guy who has come a very long way all after missing extended time to start his career, Yan is an intriguing lefty to watch. While he still owns quirky mechanics and an explosive delivery that has levers exploding at hitters, it looks much cleaner when compared to reports when he was signed and he is transformed physically. Yan has a high leverage ceiling. And, going on 25, it may not be that far away. He joins the Solar Sox in a similar capacity as Simpson and Evans: more innings to make up for lost time. Keep an eye on how he performs against these top tier prospects. If he shows well and starts his 2022 season similarly to how 2021 ended, he will be a phone call away. A spring training invite also isn’t out of the question. C Will Banfield 2021 Stats (A+) - .180/.258/.308, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 95 K, 25 BB Unfortunately, Banfield is becoming another prime example of how extremely volatile prep catchers are. The Marlins’ competitive balance round B pick from 2018 came into the league with his MLB Pipeline report reading this way: “Banfield’s signature tool is his well-above-average arm strength—though it has been down a tick at times this year—and he gets the most out of it with a quick transfer and fine accuracy on his throws. His receiving and framing skills are solid, and he’s agile behind the plate. He also exhibits the desired leadership skills for his position. While his defense overshadows his offense and he struggled at times on the showcase circuit last summer when he tried to do too much, Banfield offers some upside with the bat as well. With his strong build, solid bat speed and loft in his right-handed swing, he has at least above-average raw power. He hasn’t shown as much feel for the barrel this spring as he has with the past, so it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to tap into his pop.” Three years (minus the lost season) into his pro career, that same report can be used to describe Banfield now. This season, while he showed off his defensive prowess receiving well and throwing out 30% of potential base stealers, it came at the expense of — there is no getting around it — porous offensive stats. Among all players at the A+ level with at least 250 ABs, Banfield had the seventh lowest batting average, the fifth lowest OBP and the eighth lowest wRC+ (57). Banfield’s only slight saving grace a the plate was his infrequently shown power potential. Though very sporadically, Banfield did show off 55 grade raw strength, managing a .128 ISO, in the 33rd percentile in all of A+ and in the 38th percentile in the A+ Central. In order to tap into that more, Banfield has a lot of simplification to do to in terms of approach and swing path. With just average bat speed, Banfield’s lack of ability to shorten up and get hands to the ball as well as his susceptibility to chase bad pitches makes him, at current, nothing more than a career backup. There is hope, though: Banfield is still just 21 and offensive prowess is always the last thing to come from any catcher, let alone a prep pick. Banfield also missed the final month of the minor league season with a minor injury. While by now, we would have liked to see it come out more, Banfield heads to Arizona as the Marlins’ eighth man. He will start the season on the taxi squad but should be able to be added to the roster at any time and continue to garner needed reps and experience. Based on his defensive prowess, there is a floor big league future here as a backup catcher but, day by day, the ceiling is growing lower. INF Troy Johnston 2021 Stats (A-A+) - .300./.399/.468, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 103 K, 68 BB, 140 wRC+ Earlier this year, during an interview on Swimming Upstream, Johnston self-proclaimed himself a “cage rat” that would spend nearly every available moment of his high school and collegiate days with a bat in his hands. That mindset and hours spent perfecting his craft paid off in full this season. After breaking in to pro ball with a .277/.373/.399 59 game campaign in Batavia in 2019, this season, Johnston was able to add the only missing link to his bat: power. While maintaining the same great patience he showed at Gonzaga and the same simple mechanics which allotted him a great average and OBP both in college and in his that pro showing, the 6’, 210 lefty hitter was the third best slugging player in the Marlins’ system. While playing a full schedule of 120 games, most in the organization between two levels, he led the system in wRC+. Among 984 qualified MiLB players, he ranked 90th in that same metric. From a split stance, Johnston approaches from the back of the box and uses his best tools, vision and bat speed, to get his bat on the baseball. The simplistic, shortened approach which he has held his entire career coupled with his magnificent hitter’s eye gave him the build of a plus average and OBP guy. But how did he come by more power without sacrificing either one of those across two levels this year? Here is what Troy said back in June: “I always had to work against leaking and sliding forward a little bit. That “a-ha” moment for me was when I realized how much I can kind of preset my back hip and just get into my legs a little bit more. And then just have a nice easy swing where I could just explode off of that back hip a little bit more.” Adding power to his already advanced and balanced approach and ability to work at bats has us placing Troy is looking an awful lot like Carlos Gonzalez, a .285/.343/.500 career hitter. Another comparison: former Marlin Cliff Floyd, a .278/.358/.482 career bat while playing both outfield and first base. Like Cliff, Troy started his career as an outfielder before making the shift to first base. Johnston’s invite to the AZFL is for two reasons: allotting him more reps at first while also garnering him looks against upper minors talent for the first time before he likely begins 2022 at the AA level. With a good showing this fall and during his first stint in the upper minors to start next season, Troy’s big league debut is visible on the horizon, especially upon the likely institution of the DH in the National League. OF JJ Bleday 2021 Stats (AA) - .212/.323/.373, 12 HR, 22 2B, 54 RBI, 101/64 K/BB Up until this season, it was pretty good being JJ Bleday. Then 2021 happened. After a .326/.449/.553 collegiate career including 2019 in which he led the Vanderbilt Commodores to the College World Series title, Bleday had a decent .257/.311/.379 38-game showing in A+ Jupiter to begin his career. After the washed out 2020 campaign, this season in AA Pensacola, Bleday hit his first true and extensive bump in the road, one that lasted for most of the season. While there were a few positives to his 2021 tenure including the posting of a walk rate near 14% tied for 15th highest among all qualified AA hitters, and the fact that he looked capable of playing all three outfield spots, Bleday’s overall offensive production was very inconsistent. Per his own admission from back in July, Bleday had been working on his mechanics constantly. “I’ve been trying to overdo it, be someone I’m not. I’m trying to take a step back, relax, and try to put together some good ABs. I’ve been tinkering all year long. Over these past several weeks, I’ve been able to make some adjustments. I’ve got to go back to what’s natural to me as a player.” Though there were pockets of production in which he looked to be putting it all together, it never stuck. Clearly, per his walk rate, the issue does not lie in pitch recognition. About halfway through the year, Bleday was showing a much different setup at the plate in terms of the distance of his arms from his body, the placement of his hands on the bat and the distance in his stance. He was also using much more weight on his back leg, making the stance pre-loaded. The mechanically transformed Bleday was better in the second half of the season (.200/.304/.344, 84 wRC+ vs .223/.340/.401, 108 wRC+). This included a .311/.382/.444 month of September. The changes allowed him to avoid getting jammed while also allowing him to step to the ball and get extended on pitches on the outer half. Bleday heads to Arizona to continue to feel out the new utilization of his levers and to get more reps against upper minors pitching before likely heading to his third spring training and then being assigned presumably to AAA in 2022. OF Kameron Misner 2021 Stats (A+-AA) - .253/.355/.433, 12 HR, 29 2B, 59 RBI, 136/57 K/BB Out of the same draft as Bleday whom he played against in the SEC, Misner has put himself very close to or possibly even past Bleday in terms of prospect pedigree. Misner, 24, started the season in A+ Beloit and, after an overall slow first month and a half of the year, Misner began to find it, going 16 for 55 from June 15th through 30th. A little over a month later, Kam reached base via a single against the Peoria Chiefs. It was the start of what would become a 16 game hit streak and 30 game on base streak. Over that span, he hit .322/.403/.570. The final four games of Kam’s remarkable streak came after his promotion to the AA level. His first taste of the upper minors didn’t seem to phase him. In 14 games with Pensacola, Misner hit .309/.387/.491. Speaking during our interview with him on Swimming Upstream, Misner described the jump in competition level. “It’s not that the pitches are nastier or anything like that; it’s the location. The pitchers are able to spot up whatever pitches they want. In high A, there would be guys with good stuff but not always can they throw where they want. It seems like the last couple weeks I’ve up here, these guys have had good stuff and they’ve been able to place it where they want to place it. That’s one of the biggest changes I’ve seen is the overall control of the pitching staffs. They all put it where they want and you just have to capitalize on their mistakes.” Looking at Misner mechanically, he draws comparisons to a Marlins All-Star mortgaged during the Jeter era rebuild. On top of the capability for 20+ doubles and 20+ homers, Misner is also a threat on the bases. While he doesn’t have the most blazing speed in the world, he has a strategy. “When you’re stealing bases, you don’t steal off the catcher, you steal off the pitcher. I got told that in college and I’ve really honed into it. There’s ways of stealing off the pitcher,” Misner said. “If I get to the 13 foot mark number which is usually around the cutoff, if I get there before the pitcher releases the ball, it’s mathematically impossible for any catcher to throw me out.” Above all, Misner is a scientific player who has a mind made for baseball in every facet. Where Yelich held a .782 OPS at age 23 at the MLB level, Misner held down a .788 OPS in his first full season pro. Kam heads to Arizona for more reps against upper minors pitching. Discussions will be and are being had amongst who from the outfield minor league outfield depth the Marlins will/should trade in exchange for established talent. Misner would be at the bottom of our list because he could become a 4/5 tool big league talent. And soon.

In his second season pro, Peyton Burdick has made it to the top of the minor league ranks. On September 21st, it was announced the 24-year-old outfielder was selected from the Marlins' Double-A affiliate, the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, to head east on I-10 to join the Triple-A Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. This season in Double-A, Burdick made waves by knocking out a total of 23 home runs setting a franchise record for the Blue Wahoos. While in Pensacola, Burdick slashed .231/.376/.472. At first glance he may appear to hold an average line, but his game reveals flashes of greatness-- flashed present even in his budding Triple-A career. As a Blue Wahoo, Burdick made up part of an outfield brigade consisting of JJ Bleday, Griffin Conine, and Kameron Misner. Each of those names garnered plenty of media attention between the MLB Draft and prospect reporting of the past couple years. However, over the course of the 2021 Minor League season Bleday has cooled down offensively (.212/.323/.373). Meanwhile, Misner and Conine have spent this season getting reps in Double-A since both advanced this midseason from High-A Beloit. So what is it that makes Burdick standout? In a recent interview conducted by Fish Stripes, Baseball America editor-in-chief JJ Cooper provided some insights on the up-and-coming outfielder. Cooper candidly admitted to being "a fan" of Burdick since he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB Draft by the Marlins. He continued by commenting, "he's most confident in Burdick['s]" development as a more well-rounded player. There is much to be impressed by with the 24-year old outfielder. His athletic build and composure in play provide him the traits of a quintessential ball player. Burdick has at least one naysayer. In a September 28 article published by the Miami Herald, Barry Jackson interviewed an anonymous baseball scout who offered some dubious observations on various Marlins' prospects. The assertions made by the veteran scout were glib and curt. In regards to Burdick's performance, the comments pointed mostly at the outfielder's strikeout rate (currently averaging around ~30%K) and base running awareness. What should be considered is the source from which these impressions came— exclusively from Double-A games in Pensacola. A week prior to Jackson's report, another article in the Herald by Jordan McPherson offered a more pragmatic analysis of the Marlins' prospects throughout the 2021 Minor League season. McPherson noted how Burdick struggled early in the season "with his batting average dipping to .077 in the first two weeks." Despite the initial slump Burdick was able to turn it around to .249 by the time of his advance to Triple-A. On September 21, Burdick made his Triple-A debut for Jacksonville against the Memphis Redbirds. In his first at bat of his first game, a strikeout swinging; his second at bat, a walk that allowed him to come in and earn a run. He had to ardently wait until his second game to earn his first Triple-A hit— a double to the wall in right-center field. Burdick played eight games splitting his time between left and center field. Overall in his cup of coffee at the AAA level, he went 4-28 with three of those hits being doubles. The 6' outfielder appeared poised ready to field every ball that came his way and attentive in every at bat (though always swinging for power). Burdick may have his doubter(s), but it will be easy for him to block them out with all of the bling he took home on Sunday afternoon at loanDepot park. The .257/.382/.490, 130 wRC+ hitter who led the organization in walks and set a Blue Wahoos' franchise record in homers with 23, was named both the Double-A MVP and Minor League Player of the Year, an award previously won by the likes of JT Realmuto, Brian Anderson and others. According to Marlins’ general manager Kim Ng, the plan is for Burdick to begin 2022 back in Jacksonville. If he continues to develop his tools and persevere as well as he did while playing Double-A with Pensacola, a bright future awaits for him on the horizon, possibly as soon as late next season.

Nick Fortes (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)This preseason, manager Don Mattingly said the Miami Marlins are through handing opportunities to players who haven’t earned them. It took the franchise the entire season, but on Thursday, the club made roster moves becoming of that mindset. Before their series opener against the Pirates at loanDepot park, the Marlins officially sent infielder Isan Diaz to AAA, placed catcher (and new left fielder/first baseman) Jorge Alfaro on the IL and promoted catchers Payton Henry and Nick Fortes from Jacksonville. Henry, who was acquired at the deadline for John Curtiss and Fortes, a 2018 fourth round pick, will now both be protected from the rule 5 draft this winter. The additions of Henry and Fortes give the Marlins four catchers on their 28 man roster. After the moves, Mattingly told the media at loanDepot park that Miami will go with a catcher rotation for the rest of the season. That format proved to be true during the Marlins’ most recent series against the Pirates as the team started a different backstop in each game. The first game went to Henry, a Brewers’ 2016 sixth round pick out of Pleasant Grove High School in Utah. He is the second overall player and first position player from that school to make an MLB appearance. He also became the first player ever from the state of Utah to play for the Marlins’ organization. Henry had an interesting upbringing in athletics. While many players grow up within or at least around the game, he grew up in another world: the world of competitive wrestling. Through his upbringing, raw strength was always a foregone conclusion for Henry and it has parlayed into 60 grade raw power, an attribute rarely found in backstops. Henry has put his muscle on display often in his minor league career, slugging 37 homers and 70 doubles in 369 career minor league games. The power potential showed up again on Thursday night in Miami when Henry drilled a pitch off the center field wall for his first MLB hit. In addition to the power, Henry also sees pitching pretty well and works quality at bats. In his tenure with the Shrimp, the batting average was down but he walked at a 12.5% clip. On the year as a whole between AA and two AAA squads, the figure is still in double digits. He also has held slightly high but manageable K rates under 30%, on average. On the other side of the ball, Henry had a lot less raw tools and therefore a lot of growing to do when he began his career. The main focal point was his lack of agility and ability to move laterally and block pitches. In his first four seasons pro, Henry allowed 29 passed balls. However, he’s done a ton of work on that area of his game and the stats this year have proven it. In 61 games, he allowed just four passed balls. His arm has come along as well. After only catching 7 of 34 runners in 2016 and 16 of 58 in 2017, Henry has thrown out 113 of his last 286 potential base stealers (39.5%). " Definitely still have room to grow and room to improve just like anybody, but I've been seeing the ball well," Henry said of his recent production. "Just trying to stay in the middle of the field and keep it simple. I give myself queues like "hit it forward," things like that. Just keep baseball simple. That's been my main focus and my main goal." The kind of thump Henry can provide is not often found at the catcher position. If his receiver skills and pitch blocking can persist while handing big league stuff, Henry is a viable and powerful backup catcher off the bench with the ability to slot in as a DH or, given the Marlins’ front office’s liking for making players multi-faceted, perhaps a first baseman. Also recalled was Friday’s starter at catcher, Nick Fortes. Fortes was a Marlins fourth round pick in 2018 out of Mississippi. Where Henry has been known for his offensive prowess and had to develop his defense, Fortes is the polar opposite. Since his time with the Hammerheads, Fortes’ teammates have raved about his game calling abilities. They were echoed by Edward Cabrera after Cabrera was partnered with Fortes on Saturday night. "He's a good catcher. He managed the game very well," Cabrera said. "I feel very comfortable with him behind the plate." Due to injuries limiting his 2019 season to 76 games and the pandemic wiping out the 2020 MiLB season, 2021 has been Fortes’ first full year of on field participation. During it, Fortes has shown some stark improvement on the offensive side of the ball, particularly in the second month of the season. He started the year in AA Pensacola and after a .224 month of May, broke out for a .299/.365/.442 June. Fortes was promoted to AAA Jacksonville in late July and recorded three hits in his debut with the Jumbo Shrimp. In his MLB debut, Fortes recorded a single for his first pro hit and followed it up by belting his first homer. According to Fortes, he has advantageously transformed his skillset this season. "It's been a lot of work, that's for sure. Looking back to 2018 when I was drafted to now, I'm a completely different player. in my opinion. Different swing, different defensive abilities and mechanics," Fortes said. "Seeing to where I've grown to now from where I've been it's kind of crazy but that's just a credit to all the coaches I've met along the way and anybody who has had an input on my game. It's been a crazy ride so far but I'm just going to keep working hard." It is extremely encouraging to see Fortes handle upper minors pitching with more consistency especially after such an interrupted career in the lower minors. His game calling and receiving skills, the most important trait in a backup catcher, are what set him apart. As he proved on Saturday when he threw out the only runner that challenged him, he also has a strong arm and good vertical pop that should play better as he handles MLB stuff. If the bat can continue to prove prove it is capable of handling major league pitching, he should be able to fill that role very sufficiently. It took them longer to do so than expected, but the Marlins have finally proven they are willing to at least start following a mantra that was set forth in spring training: stop handing out opportunities, move on from experiments and begin to gauge what they have in fringe MLB ready prospects at the back end of the roster. When it comes to the backup catcher position in particular, both Henry and Fortes are in a great position to make a good first impression and give themselves a leg up in what should be a roster battle this coming spring.