Ely Sussman

Drafted by the Marlins in 2024 (Round 2, $2.8M signing bonus) October 2024 update: Johnson predictably struggled with the transition to Low-A as an 18-year-old. He already does damage against fastballs in the strike zone and should get much stronger in the coming years. He'll enter 2025 with ample opportunities to play shortstop, but the long-term expectation is that Johnson will slide down the defensive spectrum. FOF Top 30 history July 2024: #5 August 2024: #6 October 2024: #7 December 2024: #7 January 2025: #9 March 2025: #12 May 2025: #16 June 2025: #15 August 2025: #30 September 2025: #29

The 1998 Marlins season was uniquely miserable. Before the champagne could dry following the franchise's first World Series title celebration, most of the key contributors vanished via free agency or trade in a financially motivated fire sale. From the get-go, there wasn't the faintest possibility of contending for a postseason berth despite having accomplished so much the year before. A bevy of embarrassing Marlins records that have stood for more than a quarter-century are in peril of changing hands. I wrote about the trajectory of the 2024 Fish after their abysmal April performance. They followed that up with a brief stretch of competent play, but beset by starting pitching injuries and ineffective hitters, they've fallen into another extended rut. The Marlins posted a 33-63 record prior to the All-Star break, accumulating the most first-half losses in franchise history. If they keep this up throughout the remaining 2.5 months, they'll finish with similar totals to the '98 squad. 1998 Marlins: 54-108 record, minus-256 run differential 2024 Marlins: on pace for 56-106 record, minus-257 run differential Offensively, the 2024 Marlins have no answer for 1998 Cliff Floyd. He was a very rich man's version of Jazz Chisholm Jr., entering that year's All-Star break with 14 home runs and 17 stolen bases while slashing .278/.355/.491 (122 wRC+). He would wind up playing in 153 of 162 Marlins games, whereas Chisholm is increasingly likely to be traded by the end of July. Even with Jazz, the current Marlins are far and away Major League Baseball's least-patient team. Their hitters have only 205 walks; in 1998, they had 316 walks before the break while playing nine fewer games! The front office has already cut bait with several undisciplined veterans—Tim Anderson, Avisaíl García and Christian Bethancourt—but they're still in danger of posting the lowest walk rate that any Marlins team ever has. Back at the start of May, I was optimistic that starting pitching quality would distinguish 2024 from 1998. "If we are to conservatively pencil in Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer for 45 more combined starts between now and season's end, there will be meaningful improvement," I wrote. Well, that conservative estimate is mathematically impossible at this point. Luzardo is sidelined again with an injury more severe than his original one. Ditto for Garrett. I was naive regarding Meyer—he's finally on the cusp of being recalled, but the Marlins waited more than half a season in the interest of service time manipulation. The fill-ins for them have been roughly replacement-level. Just like in 1998, these arms own the National League's second-worst ERA at the break. The aforementioned rotation absences have left closer Tanner Scott as Miami's most valuable pitcher by default. Here's a depressing/fascinating 2024 stat: Scott has twice as many wins this season (six) as any other Marlin. With the All-Star and pending free agent certain to change teams prior to the deadline, he's running out of opportunities to add to that. Different era of pitcher usage, I know, but at least the 1998 Fish had two guys reach double digits (11 wins for Brian Meadows and 10 wins for Liván Hernández). In large part due to Scott, the current Marlins are 16-13 in one-run games. Presumably, A.J. Puk is next in line for save opportunities...unless he gets traded as well. The strength of this team is its bullpen, but that could change drastically two weeks from now. It will take some combination of rookie surprises and strong August/September finishes from injured starters Luzardo, Garrett and Ryan Weathers to edge out the 1998 Marlins in the standings. Remaining Marlins schedule Are you going over or under 108.5 losses for the Marlins this season?

Right-hander Hunter Harvey has been the most impactful relief pitcher to change teams so far this trade season. Ely Sussman explains why the Miami Marlins should expect an even stronger return if they decide to move A.J. Puk. Find Big Fish Small Pod on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. The Fish On First podcast is now being presented by MPT College Consulting! They pride themselves on helping clients navigate the college application process. This includes preparation for standardized testing, guidance through high school, assistance with essays and applications, and choosing the right college. Visit them today at mptcollegeconsulting.com to learn more about their services and schedule a free consultation. As Marlins fans surely remember, Puk broke camp in the Marlins starting rotation after a great spring training. It was a worthwhile experiment, but failed miserably. The tall lefty's velocity plummeted in an expanded role as did his control. Puk landed on the injured list after four sloppy outings and re-emerged as a reliever in mid-May. Rather than looking at Puk's overall 2024 stats, I'd say combining his last two seasons while filtering out his short-lived starter audition is more relevant to how he's being viewed on the trade market. When you do that (via FanGraphs), he and Harvey are eerily similar: Both are hard-throwing 29-year-olds with lots of high-leverage experience, including some in save situations. Harvey's salary is slightly higher this season and Puk comes with an additional year of club control (arbitration-eligible through 2026). Puk's injury history is more worrisome, but his left-handedness is in shorter supply and his performance is peaking at the perfect time (0.00 ERA and 0.98 FIP in last 10 appearances). All things considered, the Harvey return that Washington received—3B Cayden Wallace and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (39th overall pick)—should not be enough to pry Puk away prior to the July 30 MLB trade deadline. The Marlins are justified in setting a steep asking price. Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com.

Down on the farm, FCL Marlins lost, 8-5. 1B Julio Henriquez had a good day at the plate (2-4, BB), but a bad one on the bases (3 CS). DSL Marlins won, 10-5. RHP Eiver Espinoza allowed his first run of the season. However, his overall stats are still otherworldly (14.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 15 K). DSL Miami lost, 8-7. OF Kemp Alderman was named the Florida State League Player of the Week. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 The Marlins made the following selections on Day 2 of the MLB Draft (Rounds 3-10): 2B Gage Miller, OF Fenwick Trimble, RHP Grant Shepardson, SS Payton Green, RHP Nick Brink, OF Jacob Jenkins-Cowart, 3B Dub Gleed and 3B Michael Snyder. Director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere singled out Shepardson as a potential "steal" in the fifth round ("We think this guy really has as much upside as a lot of pitchers available beyond the first round"). Ten more selections coming today, with Round 11 getting underway at 2:00 p.m. ET. 🔷 Get familiar with each Marlins selection through our 2024 draft pick tracker. The blurbs will be updated as players agree to contracts leading up to the July 30 signing deadline. 🔷 Still time to enter to win this signed 2024 Jupiter Hammerheads Mega Bash hat. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Teoscar Hernández won the Home Run Derby, becoming the first Los Angeles Dodger to ever do so. He totaled 49 homers across the three rounds. Prior to the contest, Ingrid Andress butchered the national anthem. I made the following edit of Marlins players "reacting" to it. 🔷 The MLB All-Star Game is tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET. Hopefully, Marlins representative Tanner Scott gets called upon to pitch in a high-leverage situation. A reminder that the Marlins 2024 All-Star Bobbles on Parade bobblehead from FOCO is available for pre-order. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: FCL Marlins vs. FCL Nationals, 10:00 a.m. ET DSL Marlins at DSL Twins, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami vs. DSL Mets Orange, 11:00 a.m. ET

The Miami Marlins caught just about everybody by surprise when selecting PJ Morlando with the 16th overall pick of the 2024 MLB Draft. Shortly after making the pick, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere held a virtual press conference detailing why they believe the 19-year-old outfielder was deserving of being first-rounder. Fish on First SuperSubs can access an audio recording of the presser below.

On Sunday, Trevor Rogers no-hit the Reds through 5 ⅓ innings, but once again received limited offensive support—the Marlins have scored three runs or fewer in 15 of his 19 starts this season. Jonah Bride drove in two and Xavier Edwards went 2-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases, including the go-ahead RBI single in the top of the eighth. Tanner Scott recorded a four-out save and enters the All-Star break riding a month-long scoreless streak. The Marlins won, 3-2. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 2-1. RHP Max Meyer (5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 66 pitches/41 strikes) finally earned his first Triple-A win of 2024. His changeup was particularly effective, inducing six whiffs on eight swings. Very good chance that Meyer makes his long-awaited return to the Marlins rotation during the first homestand following the break. Double-A Pensacola lost, 4-3. In his 38th game of the year, utility man Dalvy Rosario hit his first home run. High-A Beloit won, 3-2. The Sky Carp went with a bullpen game and held Cedar Rapids without an extra-base hit. Low-A Jupiter lost, 6-5. The Hammerheads went 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position. Through nine rehab games (Jupiter/FCL combined), OF Shane Sasaki has slashed .345/.525/.414 with three steals. He should be rejoining the Blue Wahoos next weekend. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Following his ejection on Saturday, Dane Myers fractured his left ankle when kicking the door of the Marlins clubhouse in frustration. The injury is likely to keep him out until September, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid, who reports it'll take an estimated 6-8 weeks to recover. It's no exaggeration to say this could be a career-altering mistake for Myers. Slashing .265/.337/.422 (113 wRC+) in 40 games this season, he would've been on track to start the majority of remaining Marlins games, particularly if the team trades away Jazz Chisholm Jr. This was a crucial window for the 28-year-old to prove himself. 413885.mp4 🔷 With their first pick in the 2024 MLB Draft (16th overall), the Marlins selected CF PJ Morlando from Summerville High School in South Carolina. It was an absolutely shocking choice, as you can tell from our Fish On First LIVE reactions. Morlando's standout tool is his power, but even that did not translate to game action during his senior season. Marlins director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere raved about Morlando's athleticism and explained how he had been scouting him closely dating back to last summer when Piliere was still working for the Mariners. It's a longshot that Morlando sticks in center field, though he'll get the opportunity to play there initially. Relatively old for his high school class—he turned 19 in May—Morlando will receive substantially less than his $4.7M slot value, sources tell Fish On First. 🔷 With their second pick (56th overall), they selected SS Carter Johnson from Oxford High School in Alabama. This one was less surprising as the Marlins had been linked to Johnson via several reports leading up to the draft. Another big-framed, left-handed hitter, the 18-year-old likely winds up as a second baseman long term. Expect the University of Alabama commit to sign for more than his $1.6M slot value. 🔷 With their third pick (70th overall), they selected Oregon State RHP Aiden May. May posted a 3.05 ERA in 14 starts during his junior season. His collegiate career included previous stops at Pima Community College and the University of Arizona. He possesses a plus slider. The key to him remaining an effective starting pitcher in pro ball will be whether he can develop the rest of his pitch mix to contain lefty opponents. 🔷 The MLB Draft resumes today at 2:00 p.m. ET with Rounds 3-10. The Marlins hold the 92nd, 122nd, 155th, 184th, 215th, 245th, 275th and 305th overall picks. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Blake Snell carried a perfect game through six innings in what was easily his best start as a member of the Giants. There was an insane finish to the Yankees/Orioles game. Both teams scored three times in the ninth inning and the O's secured a walk-off win on back-to-back defensive miscues. The Athletics routed the MLB-best Phillies, 18-3. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: FCL Marlins at FCL Mets, 12:00 p.m. ET DSL Marlins at DSL Rangers Blue, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami vs. DSL Phillies White, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's road series against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Miami Marlins are almost on the clock. The 2024 MLB Draft will be their first with Peter Bendix as president of baseball operations and Frankie Piliere as director of amateur scouting. How to watch the MLB Draft Sunday (Rounds 1-2): televised on MLB Network and ESPN and streaming on MLB.com at 7:00 p.m. ET; Fish On First LIVE Miami Marlins Draft Reaction show streaming on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook at 8:00 p.m. ET counting down to the Marlins' first-round pick Monday (Rounds 3-10): streaming on MLB.com at 2:00 p.m. ET Tuesday (Rounds 11-20): streaming on MLB.com at 2:00 p.m. ET (audio only) Marlins draft picks & slot values The Marlins have an overall bonus pool of $10,438,500. They can go up to 5% above that ($10,960,425) without losing future picks. This pool only applies to players signed during the first 10 rounds and those beyond the 10th round who cost more than $150k. Round 1, 16th overall pick ($4,704,700 slot value) Round 2, 56th overall pick ($1,603,400) CBA Round B, 70th overall pick ($1,139,100) Round 3, 92nd overall pick ($800,800) Round 4, 122nd overall pick ($589,000) Round 5, 155th overall pick ($427,000) Round 6, 184th overall pick ($331,300) Round 7, 215th overall pick ($259,600) Round 8, 245th overall pick ($211,600) Round 9, 275th overall pick ($191,300) Round 10, 305th overall pick ($180,700) Marlins select 19th in each of Rounds 11-20 The deadline to sign draft picks is July 30 at 5:00 p.m. ET. Hector Rodriguez's draft board As detailed here, Fish On First draft analyst Hector Rodriguez recommends that the Marlins target the following players with the No. 16 overall pick: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State Mock drafts These will be frequently updated between now and Sunday night... Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State Essentially all of the college hitters who are tied to Seattle are also tied to the Marlins. Smith, Seaver King, Caleb Lomavita and Ryan Waldschmidt all seem to make a lot of sense. Dart throw names for later picks: 1B Blake Burke, OF Dylan Dreiling, OF Griffin Burkholder MLB Pipeline (Jim Callis): Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State If Tibbs and Christian Moore are gone, the Marlins likely would turn to Smith over King. MLB Pipeline (Jonathan Mayo): Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State This continues to feel like the best landing spot for the third baseman, though the Marlins are also looking at other college hitters like Benge and Ryan Waldschmidt. Sloan could enter the equation if they switch gears to the mound. ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest I think the Marlins are looking for a college bat here with King being the last one left. Carter Johnson (or possibly PJ Morlando) are rumored underslot options here if they don't like what's left. FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen): Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State This would be a great value pick at this spot, and unlike a lot of other “safe” college hitters, Smith has some swing optimization stuff to work on. His timeline also fits better with the Marlins’ window of contention than the super polished college bats. The Athletic (Keith Law): Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest I’ve heard the Marlins mostly with college bats, including King, Cam Smith and Tibbs, although supposedly they have at least one high school hitter in their mix (maybe Theo Gillen). Just Baseball (Aram Leighton): Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest Big tools with the ability to play all over the diamond, King proved that he can handle ACC pitching after transferring from Division II Wingate. An organization desperate for reinforcement up the middle would likely be thrilled to nab King and would probably give him every opportunity to prove he can stick at shortstop. CBS Sports (R.J. Anderson & Mike Axisa): Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State All signs point to the new front office regime in Miami grabbing a college bat here. Smith offers tremendous power but will need to fine tune his swing and approach to fully tap into it. Others like Oklahoma State's Carson Benge, Wake Forest's Seaver King, and Kentucky's Ryan Waldschmidt make sense here as well.

From the "around the basepaths" section in Bob Nightengale's weekly USA Today column: "The Miami Marlins have been hoping they could trade center fielder Jazz Chisholm all season, with the Seattle Mariners emerging as the favorites to land him." It's a timely report considering that Chisholm played second base for the Marlins on Saturday, snapping a two-year drought since he last occupied the position. Julio Rodríguez has center field covered in Seattle, so 2B is the logical fit for Chisholm there. Mariners second basemen are collectively slashing .199/.294/.307 (80 wRC+) this season with a hideous 29.8 K%. The Mariners are seeking their first AL West title since 2001. Less than a month ago, they held a 10-game lead in the division, but that has rapidly shrunk to one game as the Houston Astros continue to surge. With a farm system that's led by young, toolsy hitters—Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Cole Young, Jonny Farmelo and Harry Ford—the Mariners match up well with what the Marlins are reportedly seeking to jumpstart their rebuild.