Ely Sussman

No deal is close as of Sunday morning, but according to Ken Rosenthal and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Miami Marlins and New York Yankees are currently in talks regarding a possible Edward Cabrera trade.

You know Cabrera's situation by now. In 2025, his fifth MLB season, he demonstrated a career-best combination of control and durability. The Dominican right-hander owns a lifetime 4.07 ERA and 25.9 K% in 431 ⅔ innings pitched as a big leaguer. Entering his age-28 season, Cabrera is still three years away from free agent eligibility.

On paper, the Yankees already have great starting rotation depth. However, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are each expected to begin the 2026 campaign on the injured list. Re-signing Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough are the only offseason moves they've made thus far to address that issue.

Talks have progressed to the point that Craig Mish of FanDuel Sports Network says several high-ceiling prospects are headed to Miami if a deal gets done. The Marlins reportedly asked for power-hitting outfield prospect Spencer Jones when they previously talked with the Yankees in late July. Although Jones has a very high ceiling, his vulnerability to strikeouts gives him a dangerously low floor as well. Infielder George Lombard Jr. is generally regarded as the No. 1 prospect in the Yankees system. In my opinion, he should be unavailable in any Cabrera deal.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald corroborates the Yankees negotiations and adds that the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have shown interest in Cabrera. The San Francisco Giants are another possible suitor, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

The timing of these rumors is unsurprising. Japanese star Tatsuya Imai reached an agreement with the Houston Astros earlier this weekend, which ought to open floodgates on what has generally been a slow-moving starting pitching market.

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1 hour ago, One Regend said:

I'm honestly shocked they were even able to get a return out of Eric Wagaman, given he was our least productive player by a landslide.

Honestly, even if Kade Bragg gets clobbered and flames out at AAA before reaching the majors, this is a W trade for us.

To recap, Wagaman was non-tendered by the Angels last offseason. This transaction indicates that his value somehow went up since then despite the thoroughly unproductive year.

I don't get what they see in him. He'll fit in nicely in the KBO in 2027, though.

As the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers are accustomed to packing Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. However, the crowd will be nearly doubled its usual size tonight at loanDepot park when they face the New York Rangers in the NHL Winter Classic.

"We can host a wide variety of events. And we’ve shown that,” Miami Marlins president of business Caroline O'Connor boasted to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The Winter Classic comes just a few weeks after the inaugural Miami Tennis Invitational was played at this venue. Among non-baseball events, Monster Jam is next on docket (February 21-22).

Although it has been an uneven 2025-26 season for the Panthers, they've been playing much better recently, winning nine of their previous 13 games.

For the past two-plus weeks, the LDP roof has remained closed with the air conditioning on full blast to allow workers to painstakingly build a sheet of ice and maintain it. But when the puck drops at 8 p.m. ET, they'll be playing under the night's sky. Watch the game on TNT.

Marlins Opening Day is only 84 days away.

🔷 Designated for assignment by the Marlins on Monday, Eric Wagaman remains in limbo.

🔷 Kevin Barral attended Pete Fairbanks' introductory press conference (via Zoom). Fairbanks discussed the free agent process, his comfort level with pitch calls coming from the dugout and the origin of his cutter. He also disclosed that he and his wife are expecting their third child in late March.

🔷 Both Kevin and Sean McCormack analyzed Miami's acquisition of Esteury Ruiz.

🔷 Congratulations to Liam Hicks and Kirsten Grimes on their engagement!

 

 

 

 

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🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai signed a three-year, $54 million deal with the Houston Astros that includes opt-outs after each season. Tyler Mahle signed a one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants. Despite being floated as potential Marlins trade partners earlier this offseason, it's now difficult to see either team making aggressive bids for Edward Cabrera or another major league starter.

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On Monday morning, I went out on a limb and assumed that the Miami Marlins wouldn't be making any more trades over the final three days of this calendar year. Whoops! This article has been updated accordingly. Although none of their individual moves in 2025 met the criteria of a blockbuster deal, the cumulative impact of these trades on the organization was substantial.

Technically, the Marlins made more than a dozen "trades" if you include Jonah Bride, Jhonny Pereda, Michael Petersen, Tyler Phillips, Austin Roberts, John Rooney and Joey Wiemer each being swapped for cash considerations. Well, I'm not—those amount to glorified waiver claims.

That leaves us with the following six transactions:

Acquired RHP William Kempner from San Francisco Giants for $250,000 in international bonus pool money (Jan. 15). Annual spending on the international market is restricted by a cap, so parting with this quarter-million dollars essentially transferred amateur talent to the Giants, qualifying as a trade in my book. A full year later, the Marlins ought to be feeling pretty good about their side of it. Kempner posted a 3.06 FIP in 67 ⅔ minor league innings pitched to earn a spot on their 40-man roster. With slight improvements to his control, the hefty right-hander can be an impactful piece of their 2026 bullpen.

Acquired RHP Colby Martin from Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Robinson Piña (Jun. 24). At the time of the deal, Martin barely had any experience above Low-A; by the end of the season, he was throwing gas at Triple-A. The 5'11" righty has an overpowering fastball and deceptive delivery. Turning 25 shortly after Opening Day, we should be seeing Martin at Marlins big league camp as a non-roster invitee. Piña is now a free agent after making just one low-leverage relief appearance in a Blue Jays uniform.

Acquired OF Matthew Etzel from Tampa Bay Rays for C Nick Fortes (Jul. 29). The Marlins bought low on Etzel coming off an injury. The early returns have been encouraging. In 36 minor league games following the trade, he slashed .280/.370/.390 with two home runs and 10 stolen bases. He's best suited to playing left field at the major league level. Fortes did well enough defensively to be tendered a contract by Tampa Bay for 2026. The imminent arrival of Joe Mack in Miami made him expendable.

Acquired RHP Ryan Gusto, INF Chase Jaworsky and OF Esmil Valencia from Houston Astros for OF Jesús Sánchez (Jul. 31). Gusto and Jaworsky were limited by injuries down the stretch, while Valencia thrived upon joining his new org (.327/.367/.510, 3 HR and 14 SB in 24 G). The toolsy 20-year-old should be batting near the top of High-A Beloit's lineup next season. The Astros have one more year of club control over Sánchez, who is being strictly platooned.

Acquired OF Ethan O'Donnell from Cincinnati Reds for OF Dane Myers (Dec. 27). Myers performed brilliantly through the first two-plus months of 2025, but his offensive production cratered from there. He still has impressive raw athleticism and the versatility to handle all three outfield spots. Beginning in 2027, the Marlins hope that O'Donnell become a left-handed-hitting version of Myers.

Acquired OF Esteury Ruiz from Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Adriano Marrero (Dec. 29).

On Sunday in Puerto Rican winter ball, Brian Navarreto went 2-for-4 and Orlando Ortiz-Mayr struggled with control in his final regular season start (1.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K).

Marlins Opening Day is only 88 days away.

🔷 I produced this Dane Myers highlight reel to commemorate his Marlins tenure.

🔷 Agustín Ramírez confirmed to Juanfrank Kranwinkel that he is on the Dominican Republic's preliminary 35-man roster for the World Baseball Classic. Ramírez's playing time would be very limited, so I wouldn't be surprised if he ultimately passes on the opportunity and remains in Marlins camp.

🔷 Declan Cronin spoke extensively about his injury-riddled 2025 season. After tearing his UCL, Cronin was under the impression that the Marlins would retain him throughout the rehab process, but it turns out they released him before his Tommy John surgery even took place. He has since signed a two-year minor league deal with the Texas Rangers.

🔷 With the NHL's Winter Classic approaching on Friday, George Richards of Florida Hockey Now shows us how the rink is set up in the middle of loanDepot park. Tickets are still available in most sections, though the get-in price is $235.

🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Tyler Soderstrom and the Athletics agreed on a seven-year, $86 million contract extension. The Baltimore Orioles re-signed Zach Eflin to a one-year, $10 million deal and the Chicago Cubs signed Hunter Harvey to a one-year, $6 million deal. Former Marlins first-round draft pick Andrew Heaney announced his retirement from baseball. Used primarily as a starter, Heaney posted a 4.57 ERA in 1,136 ⅔ innings pitched across parts of 12 MLB seasons. He won a World Series title with the Texas Rangers in 2023.

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There is a growing list of players who were designated for assignment by their previous MLB teams, only to very quickly experience newfound success with the Miami Marlins. That list includes Declan Cronin, who was Miami's most effective reliever for an extended stretch of the 2024 season. Cronin showed a lot of versatility as a rookie—he frequently went multiple innings, worked back-to-back days and inherited baserunners depending on what the club needed from him. He pitched a total of 70 ⅓ innings with a pedestrian 4.35 ERA, but a far more encouraging 2.58 FIP.

However, Cronin was unable to build upon that campaign in 2025 because of a series of injuries. Anything he achieves once he fully recovers will transpire in a different uniform.

Cronin's age-27 season got off to a delayed start. During spring training, he suffered what was publicly announced as a left hip strain. Cronin got much more specific in an interview with Ben Lindbergh on Friday's episode of Effectively Wild, explaining that incorporating a new drill into his workout routine caused damage to "delicate little muscles" in his hip. Rotating his hips while going through his pitching delivery aggravated the injury.

"What I probably should've done was taken some serious time off from throwing, just actually allowing the muscles and the tissue to fully heal before putting them through that stress again," Cronin said. "But I wanted to kind of 'go, go, go,' so we 'kept the arm moving,' kept throwing." He began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on April 10. While making back-to-back appearances on April 12-13, he had a setback and was "back to square one."

A hip specialist in Nashville provided Cronin with a different interpretation of his unique injury and his rehab plan changed accordingly. A month later, he was throwing pain-free and cleared to face live batters again. Although Cronin's velocity and pitch shapes weren't all the way back to his 2024 form, "I and everyone else kinda thought, 'Okay, you're just getting back into the swing of it. You gotta remember this is kinda like a second offseason/on-ramp for you.'" When the Marlins optioned Cronin to Jacksonville on May 31, he believed that he was only a week or two away from being major league-ready.

Unfortunately, "I just never got back to what I felt like before the hip injury," Cronin said. "My body had patterned—over months of low-intensity throwing and/or throwing with pain—certain kind of compensatory movement patterns that just totally compromised by ability to throw how I want to throw. Even though I was pain-free, I could not convince myself to throw normally and to use my lower half specifically normally." That led indirectly to shoulder pain. Even when that subsided and Cronin returned from another IL stint in early August, he still felt out of sync. "Something has to give here," he remembered thinking at the time.

Indeed, on August 16, his right UCL gave out. "I immediately knew," Cronin said. "I could feel the space in my elbow expand at ball release...I kinda felt that 'pop' and release of tension."

From his last appearance on August 16...Cronin knew right away that something was very wrong.

Now officially sidelined for the whole 2026 season. https://t.co/z0jgGhRUqW pic.twitter.com/WlCHp8hNxZ

— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) September 30, 2025

After consultation with renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, it was clear that Cronin would need Tommy John surgery. Cronin was under the impression that the Marlins would be retaining him for the 2026 season, placing him on the 60-day IL throughout the year-long rehab process. That's what they will be doing for Ronny Henriquez, who had his own elbow surgery earlier this month. 

Instead, before the procedure even took place, the Marlins released Cronin on September 6. "It was very surprising," he said. "Certainly not something that I anticipated or anybody close to me anticipated. It also kinda wasn't what we had been told and nothing I'd ever seen before, but check the rulebook, they're allowed to do it, so power to them to exercise their rights."

The Marlins apparently had doubts about Cronin reestablishing himself as an impactful pitcher in 2027. Even so, the timing of the release was callous. Rather than making him navigate the surgery and early rehab process on his own, they could have easily waited until the conventional 40-man roster cleanup period in November.

In free agency, Cronin signed a two-year minor league deal with the Texas Rangers. Many teams expressed interest in him, but the Rangers were the first to submit a written offer. "I'd play for Skip (Schumaker) any day, so I was really excited to see that he was over there," Cronin said about reuniting with his 2024 manager. His former Fish teammates Jake Burger, Jonah Bride and Anthony Veneziano are also in the Rangers organization.

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The Miami Marlins traded Dane Myers to the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday afternoon. In exchange, they picked up outfielder Ethan O'Donnell.

Myers landed in Miami three years ago as a minor league Rule 5 draft pick and immediately surpassed expectations. The converted pitcher raked in the upper minors and made his MLB debut on July 4, 2023. Playing the game with an extremely high motor, he quickly became a fan favorite.

The 2025 season was a rollercoaster for Myers. At age 29, he looked to be emerging as the Marlins' everyday center fielder, slashing .333/.377/.481 in 44 games played through June 15. Coincidence or not, he was hit by a pitch on June 16, and from that point forward, Myers became a liability at the plate. His campaign ended prematurely after colliding with the outfield wall at Citizens Bank Park on September 23.

Overall across parts of three MLB seasons, Myers is merely a .245/.299/.354 hitter (81 wRC+). However, he's a weapon versus left-handed pitching (.297/.360/.456 and 126 wRC+).

O'Donnell was drafted by the Reds out of the University of Virginia in 2023. He spent this past season with Double-A Chattanooga, where he slashed .236/.327/.325 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases and a 90 wRC+ in 125 games. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs cautions that there is "a huge hole in his swing against fastballs up and away from him." MLB Pipeline had O'Donnell ranked 18th on their Reds top prospects list, while Longenhagen didn't rank him at all among the organization's top 39 prospects.

The left-handed hitter has gotten professional reps at all three outfield positions. He turns 24 years old in March and will be Rule 5-eligible after the 2026 season.

Fish On First's own Isaac Azout reported that the Reds also attempted to acquire Myers prior to the July 31 trade deadline. It's unclear if he had other suitors back then or during this offseason.

Myers' departure fully clears the runway for Heriberto Hernández to make his first career Opening Day roster coming off a productive rookie season. It seems as though the ultra-versatile Javier Sanoja will be utilized as Jakob Marsee's backup in center field. Christopher Morel and Connor Norby could contend for whatever right-handed corner outfield reps are left over. This also creates a temporary opening on the Marlins 40-man roster.

That opening should be filled in the coming days when the club's one-year, $13 million deal with reliever Pete Fairbanks is officially announced.

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The Miami Marlins are signing Pete Fairbanks to a one-year, $13 million deal. It includes a $12 million salary, $1 million signing bonus, $1 million in incentives based on total appearances and a $500,000 acquisition bonus if he is traded during the 2026 season. The deal is pending a physical. Will Sammon of The Athletic was first to report Tuesday afternoon that an agreement had been reached.

Fairbanks, who turned 32 earlier this month, has spent the vast majority of his MLB career with the Tampa Bay Rays. In 2025, he set career-highs with 60 ⅓ innings pitched and 27 saves, though his 3.61 FIP was the worst mark since his rookie season. The Rays could've retained him for 2026 on an $11 million club option, but declined it.

Fairbanks has generally utilized a two-pitch arsenal, consisting of a four-seam fastball and slider. However, he gradually increased his changeup usage last season to 4.9% and also introduced a cutter in September.

The Marlins upped their offer to Fairbanks recently, as Fish On First's Isaac Azout reported last week. Losing Ronny Henriquez to season-ending elbow surgery may have pushed them to sweeten the deal even more. Various other reports linked Fairbanks to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers during his free agent process.

Adding Fairbanks along with Christopher Morel (1-YR/$2M) means that the Marlins have signed multiple players to fully guaranteed major league free agent deals in the same offseason. The last time that happened was 2022-23 (Johnny Cueto and Jean Segura).

Miami's 40-man roster is full, so there will have to be a corresponding move for them to officially announce the signing of Fairbanks.

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The Ronny Henriquez news is a gut punch. After emerging as the most impactful Miami Marlins reliever in 2025, he has been ruled out for the entire 2026 MLB season following Tommy John surgery. Finding somebody to fill his shoes is a daunting task, particularly at this stage of the offseason with many of the most accomplished free agent relievers no longer available.

That being said, perhaps it instills confidence in the Marlins front office to remember they originally acquired Henriquez as a waiver claim. Browsing the 40-man rosters of every team, I have identified three arms with many of the same attributes. While we can't count on them getting designated for assignment like Henriquez did, they should be attainable at a very low cost.

The following pitchers each meet this criteria:

• Primarily used as a reliever by their current team
• Above-average fastball velocity
• Multiple secondary pitches with at least 10% usage
• Finished 2025 season healthy
• Out of minor league options
• Pre-arbitration eligible

RHP Colin Selby (Baltimore Orioles)

Major League Baseball made a rule change in recent years to prevent teams from constantly shuttling players back and forth between Triple-A and The Show. The Orioles pushed Colin Selby to the legal limit in 2025, optioning him on five separate occasions before we even reached the halfway mark of the season. A hamstring strain sidelined him throughout most of the second half.

Selby's arsenal consists of a sinker, curveball, slider and four-seam fastball. The curve is his most intriguing weapon with massive vertical drop from his high arm slot and an average spin rate of 2,840 rpm.

Selby is still under club control for six more years and landed 64.5% of his pitches for strikes in limited action with the O's, so it would almost certainly take a trade of some kind for the Marlins to pry him loose. Then again, Henriquez was in an identical situation last February when the Minnesota Twins surprisingly let him go.

RHP Chase Silseth (Los Angeles Angels)

Chase Silseth made the transition to full-time reliever last summer. From 2022-2024, his propensity for allowing home runs was a serious issue (19 HR in 89.0 IP). However, in 10 late-season appearances out of the Angels 'pen, the only batter to take him deep was Nick Kurtz. No shame in that.

Silseth used to throw as many as seven different pitch types. In 2025, he simplified his approach—four-seamers and splitters to lefties, with the addition of sweepers and sinkers to righties.

Although Silseth's upside is alluring, he had a lengthy IL stint for right elbow inflammation in 2024 and has only been tasked with pitching back-to-back days once in his professional career.

RHP Carlos Vargas (Seattle Mariners)

Carlos Vargas was already out of options entering 2025, so he spent the entire year on Seattle's active roster (excluding one series he missed while on the paternity list). He posted a 3.97 ERA with a 16.3% strikeout rate in 77 innings pitched. He stuck around during their postseason run, too.

Leaning heavily on a high-90s sinker, Vargas is a ground ball machine (95th percentile among MLB pitchers in GB%). There were 12 ground ball double plays turned behind him, tied for the second-highest total of any reliever.

Vargas had jarring reverse platoon splits during his age-25 campaign—lefties slashed .205/.248/.341 while righties slashed .327/.404/.485. He could benefit a lot from learning a sweeper, much like Henriquez did upon being acquired by the Fish.

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Ely Sussman explains why the recent trade of Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles gives us a clear idea of what Edward Cabrera is currently worth. Then, Matt Goudreau, president and general manager of the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, discusses all aspects of his role with the Marlins Triple-A affiliate.

You can find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more.

Although Cabrera's major league career has been more successful than Baz's to this point, these right-handed starters have more in common than you might realize at first glance. Both have three remaining years of club control, similar projected salaries for the 2026 season and plus fastball velocity. The quality of contact they've allowed has been comparable as well.

Traditionally, a player's last season is weighted heavily when determining their current value. However, this particular MLB offseason has been rife with examples of pitchers who were coveted despite run prevention struggles. All things considered, I estimate that Cabrera's value is only 5-10% higher than Baz's.

Matt Goudreau joined the Jumbo Shrimp in June 2021 as assistant general manager after stints at the University of Memphis, San Francisco 49ers, San Jose State University and Pittsburgh Pirates. Goudreau was at the forefront of the multi-year VyStar Ballpark renovations ("Project NEXT"), which included the complete remodel of both home and visiting clubhouses, new video board and ribbon boards, new right field building which includes the team’s new administrative offices, street level team store and the Right Field Hall/Power Alley, the PNC Home Plate Club, and a new main gate. Additionally, he has managed the stadium operations team, been the primary liaison to the Jumbo Shrimp coaching staff and Marlins player development department, and has also helped oversee gameday staff working events at VyStar Ballpark.

Earlier this month, Goudreau was promoted to his current role. Shortly after, the Jumbo Shrimp were sold by longtime owner Ken Babby to the Prospector Baseball Group.

Swim Around the Diamond

At the end of every episode of The Offishial Show, I will be highlighting and recommending Marlins-related content that was posted recently outside of FOF. Here's what I picked this time:

• Graduates: Welcome to the big leagues (East Carolina University) 
• Edwards' youth camp growing in size, support (MLB.com)
• Miami Marlins Best to Wear Jersey Number Series (Marlin Maniac)
• Edward Cabrera exclusive interview (El Primer Out)

Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com.

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Dismissed by the Miami Marlins at the end of the 2024 season, Jeff Schwarz filed a civil complaint against his former employer in Palm Beach County Circuit Court on Thursday. Schwarz, who was 60 years old when the Marlins dismissed him, alleges that he was the victim of age discrimination. He's seeking "in excess of $50,000" through this lawsuit.

It's unclear exactly when Schwarz was originally hired by the Marlins, but the photo above is from 2004. Across several different stints with the organization, his various roles included Triple-A pitching coach, Gulf Coast League pitching coach, pitching coordinator and (most recently) rehabilitation pitching coach. Quite frankly, I wasn't aware of his existence until learning of this legal action and therefore don't have any insight into the quality of his coaching.

Schwarz's lawsuit references both president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and director of player development Rachel Balkovec, both of whom are in their 30s. Balkovec delivered the news of his termination, allegedly attributing the decision to "cleaning house" rather than job performance.

Schwarz attempts to establish that there was a pattern of discrimination on the basis of age in violation of the Florida Civil Rights Act. In total, 11 Marlins coaches who were at least 46 years old got canned in October 2024 despite being "eminently qualified for their position," he claims. That group included Triple-A Jacksonville manager Daren Brown, High-A Beloit manager Billy Gardner and minor league pitching coordinator Scott Aldred.

Schwarz feels that he is entitled to compensation for "extreme emotional distress, mental pain and suffering, past and future pecuniary losses, inconvenience, mental anguish, loss of the capacity for the enjoyment of life and other non-pecuniary losses, along with the loss of back and front pay, interest on pay, bonus, and other fringe benefits."

You may download the full lawsuit here (Jeffrey Schwarz v. Marlins Teamco LLC).

I'm not a lawyer, but this situation seems highly likely to be settled out of court.

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East Carolina University selected Miami Marlins manager Clayton McCullough to be their fall 2025 commencement speaker. True to his nature, McCullough was self-deprecating while delivering his 11-minute address at ECU's Minges Coliseum on Friday.

“ECU took a chance on me—mostly because the baseball team needed a catcher,” he said. “Coach Keith LeClair believed in me when honestly I didn’t believe much in myself.” He brought up his poor grades and the fact that he didn't finish his degree until age 26 after his professional playing career ended.

"One of (the Marlins') core philosophies is simple: Development doesn’t stop in the major leagues,” McCullough explained. “Every Marlins player, no matter how experienced or talented, is on an individual path to be their best version.”

“Today, you close one chapter. Tomorrow, a new one begins. You won’t have it all figured out. That’s OK— I certainly didn’t,” he added. “But if you commit to growth, find people who can show you the way, and keep showing up and getting better, I promise you this: Your future can exceed even your own expectations. Class of 2025, welcome to the big leagues.”

You can watch McCullough's full speech below beginning at the 50-minute mark.

On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4 with a walk. His team, Gigantes del Cibao, needs one more win to clinch a LIDOM postseason berth. In Puerto Rico, Jacob Berry went 1-for-4 with a walk and Chris Arroyo went 0-for-2. Berry's 18-game on-base streak is the longest active streak in the league. In Venezuela, Jesús Bastidas went 3-for-6 and Riskiel Tineo had his 11th consecutive scoreless relief appearance.

Marlins Opening Day is only 95 days away.

🔷 The Marlins released outfielder Danny González. The right-handed hitter signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2022 for $150,000. He never advanced beyond rookie ball despite half-decent offensive numbers. In 101 career minor league games, González slashed .223/.335/.348 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases.

🔷 Sean McCormack explained how Robby Snelling has closed the gap with Thomas White for the distinction of Marlins top pitching prospect.

🔷 Former Marlins rehabilitation pitching coach Jeff Schwarz has sued the Marlins for age discrimination.

🔷 Xavier Edwards hosted his eighth annual XE9 baseball skills camp. Through the years, the event has grown from 18 to more than 200 campers. Marlins teammates Anthony Bender, Griffin Conine, Tyler Phillips and Braxton Garrett were among the many guest instructors with MLB experience.

🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, to everybody's surprise, Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. When he was posted for MLB teams earlier this offseason, Murakami was widely projected to receive at least twice as much guaranteed money. Instead, the lefty slugger has positioned himself to re-enter free agency entering his age-28 season. The St. Louis Cardinals traded Willson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita.

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In most cases, players spend merely a "chapter" of their careers with the Marlins. It's hard for a franchise to retain quality contributors without the willingness to pay them market value nor the allure of winning on a consistent basis. Thankfully, there have been a few exceptions.

I am defining the length of a player's tenure as starting with their first major league regular season appearance with the Marlins and ending on the day that they were officially acquired by another organization via trade or free agency. Time spent developing with minor league affiliates prior to debuting was ignored—otherwise, the likes of Isaac Galloway would be featured prominently, and that isn't the spirit of this exercise.

Here are the players who had the distinction of being Marlins big leaguers for longer than anybody else.

8. Jeff Conine

Marlins debut: April 5, 1993

First Marlins departure: November 20, 1997

Marlins return: August 31, 2003

Final Marlins departure: January 11, 2006

We begin with a complicated case because Conine had two separate stints as a Marlin. Put together, he played a total of six years, 11 months and 26 days with the Fish. Every player featured below exceeded seven calendar years.

Conine was remarkably durable, which allowed him to accumulate 1,014 games played—that ranks second in franchise history.

"Mr. Marlin" has remained involved with the Marlins for most of his post-playing life. He's currently a special advisor to principal owner Bruce Sherman.

7. Josh Johnson

Marlins debut: September 10, 2005

Marlins departure: November 19, 2012

On the other hand, it doesn't feel like Johnson's tenure was especially long because a large chunk of it was spent on the injured list (it was known as the "disabled list" back then). He pitched the necessary innings to be a qualified MLB starter only three times, earning National League All-Star selections in two of those campaigns.

Despite being frequently sidelined, JJ is the most productive pitcher that the Marlins have ever employed in terms of both bWAR (25.8) and fWAR (21.4).

6. Ricky Nolasco

Marlins debut: April 5, 2006

Marlins departure: July 6, 2013

Ricky Nolasco was a statistical anomaly. No pitcher during MLB's modern era with a minimum of 1,500 career innings had more of an "unlucky" gap between their ERA and FIP. That gap was even more pronounced as a Marlin (4.44 ERA/3.80 FIP) than it was with the other clubs we later pitched for.

Nolasco overcame a chronically inflated batting average on balls in play to become the all-time Marlins wins leader in 2012 and nobody has come close to catching him since then.

5. Álex González 

Marlins debut: August 25, 1998

Marlins departure: February 6, 2006

His individual numbers were unimpressive, but González provided the Marlins with seven-plus seasons of continuity at the shortstop position.

One of his ugliest slumps as a hitter coincided with the 2003 postseason—González entered the World Series with a .100/.122/.150 slash line. The Marlins' patience was rewarded when he launched a walk-off home run to win Game 4. He also scored the go-ahead run in Florida's Game 6 clincher.

4. Giancarlo Stanton 

Marlins debut: June 8, 2010

Marlins departure: December 11, 2017

Stanton is the only player who has ever signed a "lifetime" contract with the Marlins. Just days after celebrating his 25th birthday, he received a record-breaking extension covering the next 13 years.

However, new ownership took over three years later and their top priority was reducing payroll. Fresh off the greatest season of his career, Stanton was put on the trade block. He exercised his right to veto agreed-upon deals with several other teams before eventually landing with the New York Yankees.

Although the relationship ended awkwardly and Stanton's tenure did not result in any team success, hopefully the Marlins will shower him with the affection he deserves once his career concludes.

3. Miguel Rojas

Marlins debut: June 27, 2015

Marlins departure: January 11, 2023

What a journey. The acquisition of Rojas was an afterthought, but eventually, he emerged as the leader of the Marlins clubhouse. He was one of the only holdovers from the Jeffrey Loria era who was wholeheartedly embraced by Sherman's front office (his contract was extended twice).

Alas, outside of South Florida, there won't be many fans associating Rojas with the Marlins moving forward. The first paragraph of his baseball epitaph will describe him as the perfect "glue guy" who helped the Los Angeles Dodgers to back-to-back championships. He'll be finishing his playing career with the Dodgers in 2026.

2. Sandy Alcantara 

Marlins debut: June 29, 2018

Alcantara just began the final guaranteed year of his contract, which the Marlins astutely signed him to before his Cy Young campaign. He was made available to contending teams at the 2025 trade deadline, but reportedly at a steep price that none of them were willing to meet. As a result, he has become the longest-tenured Marlins pitcher ever.

A durable 2026 season spent entirely with the Fish would allow him to become the franchise leader in career innings pitched, career strikeouts and wins at loanDepot park.

1. Luis Castillo

Marlins debut: August 8, 1996

Marlins departure: December 2, 2005

Like Conine, Castillo has already been inducted into the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. An excerpt from his plaque will suffice:

"A three-time National League All-Star and three-time Gold Glove recipient (2003-05), the switch-hitting infielder also led the NL in stolen bases twice (2000 and 2002). The San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, native played 10 seasons with the Marlins, and upon his induction, he ranked as the franchise leader in hits (1,273), at-bats (4,347), plate appearances (4,966), games played (1,128), singles (1,081), triples (42), walks (533), and stolen bases (281).

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If you want to be pedantic about it, the next step for the Miami Marlins is to actually announce their signing of Christopher Morel—the one-year, $2 million deal is still pending a physical as of early Monday morning. Assuming no complications with that, then what?

As has been widely reported, the Marlins are searching for bullpen upgrades via free agency while entertaining trade offers for their starting pitchers, with most of the focus on Edward Cabrera. Contract extensions for Miami's top pre-arb players are also in play.

I expect the bullpen signing to come first. Most of the relievers on the market who merited multi-year deals have already gotten them, and the Marlins insist on keeping their books clean beyond next season. Kirby Yates feels like the realistic best-case scenario. He was in the conversation for most dominant 'pen arm in MLB from the beginning of 2024 through the first quarter of 2025 before various injuries derailed him.

Prized Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai has until January 2 to strike a deal with a major league club. Many of the suitors who fall short of acquiring the 27-year-old right-hander figure to be interested in Cabrera, himself being a 27-year-old right-hander. The Marlins might as well wait until then to intensify their negotiations.

Extensions almost certainly will come last. Those can wait until spring training (once the Marlins have the comfort of knowing their extension candidates are fully healthy entering year one of a potential long-term deal).

On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4 with a walk. Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 1-for-4, extending his on-base streak to 12 games.

Only 102 days away from Marlins Opening Day.

🔷 After 10 seasons as owner of the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Ken Babby sold the team to the Prospector Baseball Group. One of PBG's co-founders vows to continue running the Triple-A affiliate with "a distinctively local touch, with fans coming first."

🔷 The Marlins contributed 20 items to the MLB Winter Meetings Charity Auction, which combined to raise $18,165 for the Little League Disaster Relief Fund. A game-used Ichiro Suzuki jersey from 2016 did a lot of the heavy lifting ($7,030 winning bid).

🔷 Congratulations to Marle and Otto Lopez, who had their wedding last weekend in the Dominican Republic. Agustín Ramírez and Xavier Edwards were among the Marlins teammates who attended.

 

 

 

 

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🔷 Today marks the final day of the 2025 signing period for international amateur free agents. The Marlins have officially signed 26 players this year, as shown here. That table will be updated if any stragglers join the organization today. The 2026 signing period will open on January 15.

🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the following players signed major league free agent deals: Jorge Polanco with the New York Mets (2-YR/$40M), Merrill Kelly with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2-YR/$40M), Tyler Rogers with the Toronto Blue Jays (3-YR/$37M), Danny Jansen (2-YR/$14.5M), Alexis Díaz and Tyler Alexander with the Texas Rangers, Kenley Jansen with the Detroit Tigers (1-YR/$11M), Amed Rosario with the New York Yankees (1-YR/$2.5M) and Dustin May with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Kansas City Royals traded Angel Zerpa to the Milwaukee Brewers for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, and they signed Maikel Garcia to a contract extension (5-YR/$57.5M).

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Back on October 1, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that the Miami Marlins payroll was "expected to rise" from its 2025 level, "but the extent of the increase remains to be determined." Jackson provided an update on Friday in the aftermath of the club agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with free agent Christopher Morel: "a source said last week that while the payroll will increase some, a significant payroll increase would not happen."

While it's unclear what "significant" means, the 2025 Marlins had a year-end 40-man roster payroll of $67.7 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Their luxury-tax payroll estimate was $84.9 million. Since Bruce Sherman took over as the franchise's principal owner during the 2017-18 offseason, the Marlins have perennially ranked in the bottom third of MLB team spending, but they had never been dead last in either category until now.

For context, from 2022-24, the Marlins averaged a 40-man payroll of $97.1 million and a luxury-tax payroll of $123.6 million.

Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic previously theorized that "the Marlins might be operating with an additional motivation" because they did not come close to spending 150% of their league revenue-sharing intake on player payroll—approximately $105 million for luxury-tax purposes. "When a club fails to hit the specified number, the burden of proof shifts from the (Major League Baseball Players Association) to the club," encouraging the union to file a greivance against them. The Athletics found themselves in a similar predicament last winter and their payroll spiked accordingly.

Jackson disputes the notion that the Marlins are concerned about this. If challenged by the MLBPA, they will argue that an ample amount of money is being spent to bolster the organization's infrastructure ("things you don't see," to quote Sherman himself).

President of baseball operations Peter Bendix has been clear that the Marlins' overarching goal is to qualify for the postseason as frequently as possible. Coming off a 79-win season, they are only a few effective moves away from genuinely contending for an October berth. Yet the budget is apparently so tight that Bendix had to address the team's biggest weakness—first base—by rolling the dice on Morel, who's coming off a sub-replacement-level season and has zero experience at the position?

As currently constituted, the 40-man roster payroll for the 2026 Marlins would already be in the $70 million range (though that is based on my rough estimates of Morel's compensation and not-yet-determined salaries for arbitration-eligible players).

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My timing is impeccable, isn't it? As of early Friday morning when this article was originally published, the Marlins had widespread "interest" in players capable of improving their lineup and late-inning relief, but had been unable to close any deals. That changed on Friday afternoon with the signing of Christopher Morel to a one-year deal.

More than two months since Isaac Azout's pre-offseason roster projection, at least something has changed.

On top of that, Fish On First's recent reporting from the Winter Meetings has added some clarity to how Miami's internal options would be utilized if the 2026 season started today.

Position players

Default starting lineup: C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Christopher Morel, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Griffin Conine, DH Heriberto Hernández

Bench: C/1B Liam Hicks, UTIL Javier Sanoja, INF/OF Connor Norby, OF Dane Myers 

Ten of these 13 names finished the 2025 season on the Marlins active roster. The only exceptions to that outside of Morel are Stowers (oblique strain) and Myers (knee laceration), both of whom have since fully recovered from their injuries.

I was debating whether to squeeze Eric Wagaman or Myers off the club to make room for Morel. Wagaman was the much more productive hitter throughout the second half of last year, but Myers can greatly impact games with his defense and baserunning. I'll give Myers the edge in that roster battle for now.

Just missed: 1B Eric Wagaman, C Joe Mack

Historically, most prospects with Mack's pedigree have been excluded from the Marlins Opening Day roster for service-time manipulation purposes—assigning them to the minor leagues for two weeks delays their free agent eligibility by a full year. Particularly during Bruce Sherman's ownership tenure, cost-efficiency has taken priority over winning ballgames. I have to assume that approach will continue until proven otherwise.

Similar to Ramírez last year, Mack will likely debut in mid-to-late April.

Pitchers

Starting rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Max Meyer

Bullpen: RHP Ronny Henriquez, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Calvin Faucher, RHP Tyler Phillips, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Lake Bachar, LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Janson Junk

It feels like an eternity ago, but there was legitimate excitement around Meyer as a starter in spring training. He looked to be justifying the hype with a 2.10 ERA and 33.9% strikeout rate through his first five regular season starts. Regression hit him hard after that and his struggles were exacerbated by a hip injury. Although he ought to be on a short leash given the Marlins' abundance of rotation candidates, the former top draft pick will probably break camp with a starting job.

The Marlins tendered Nardi a contract coming off a completely lost season. That doesn't mean his nagging back issue has been resolved. Even if available to take the mound, perhaps the quality of stuff will have diminished too much for him to reprise his 2023-24 role.

Just missed: LHP Braxton Garrett, RHP Josh White

Garrett would be the biggest beneficiary of a potential Cabrera trade. Barring that, he may have to bide his time in Jacksonville until a rotation spot opens up.

White should be a welcome reinforcement for a bullpen that lacked swing-and-miss in 2025. It's just hard to squeeze him onto the roster if everybody's healthy and the Marlins decide to carry multiple lefty relievers. 

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The Miami Marlins are "progressing in their efforts" to trade right-hander Edward Cabrera, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported Tuesday night. They identify the Baltimore Orioles as one of Cabrera's suitors, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post adding that "numerous teams" are involved in the bidding.

Cabrera enjoyed the best season of his career in 2025. The 27-year-old posted a 3.53 ERA, 3.99 xERA with 150 strikeouts and 2.8 bWAR in 137 ⅔ innings pitched. As always, though, his workload was limited by injury—he suffered a right middle finger blister in spring training and a right elbow sprain in late August. He's under club control for three more seasons via arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a $3.7 million salary in 2026.

The Orioles' reported interest is unsurprising considering that these teams collaborated on a win-win trade at the 2024 trade deadline when the Fish exchanged Trevor Rogers for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby. Rogers was Baltimore's best starter last season, but he will be eligible for free agency next winter, and regardless, the O's need more rotation depth behind him to realistically contend during this upcoming campaign. 

With the Marlins in need of upgrades at the corner infield spots, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo are among the names they could be seeking in return. Catcher Samuel Basallo is Baltimore's top-ranked prospect, but he has already been signed to an eight-year contract extension, making it highly unlikely that he'd be available.

"Some teams believe (Cabrera) will not be traded" due to an exorbitantly high asking price, Rosenthal and Sammon noted.

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Using a built-in off-day from their original 2026 regular season schedule, the Miami Marlins announced on Tuesday that their Opening Day matchup against the Colorado Rockies has been moved from March 26 to March 27. Just like all of the club's other Friday home games, first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. The dates and start times for the other two games of the series remain the same.

This news comes nearly a month after the Marlins began selling single-game tickets. They had to wait for approval from Major League Baseball before finalizing the change.

Opening Day always draws one of the Marlins' largest crowds of the season. The team anticipates less congestion around loanDepot park for a 7:10 p.m. game compared to a 4:10 p.m. game; each of the past three years, they have hosted 4:10 p.m. openers. Another byproduct of the later start time is the game will end long after the sun sets, allowing for a postgame fireworks show.

The biggest benefit to the Marlins is maximizing attendance and local television viewership. Needless to say, a higher percentage of people will be available for a Friday night game than a Thursday afternoon game.

The Marlins have an awful 2-9 record over their last 11 Opening Day games, though they defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates in walk-off fashion on March 27, 2025. Perhaps superstitious folks can appreciate that this date change perfectly aligns the 2026 opener with that fond memory.

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In separate MLB Network interviews, Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and manager Clayton McCullough addressed some frequently asked questions about why the team wants coaches to make pitch-calling decisions instead of catchers.

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On Sunday, the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee voted Jeff Kent into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. An extraordinary offensive second baseman best remembered for his tenure with the San Francisco Giants, Kent was a late-bloomer—each of the top nine seasons of his career in terms of fWAR came between ages 29 and 37. This was his first opportunity to be evaluated by the committee after having fallen off the writers' ballot three years earlier.

Prior to the announcement, there had been rumblings from the baseball media that former Miami Marlins manger Don Mattingly was well-positioned to get the nod. Mattingly was the best first baseman in Major League Baseball during his first four full seasons (1985-1988). Unfortunately, back problems shortened his peak and he retired at the relatively young age of 34. In parts of 14 MLB seasons, "Donnie Baseball" slashed .307/.358/.471 with 222 home runs, 14 stolen bases and 40.7 fWAR. The six-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove Award winner spent his entire career with the New York Yankees.

Alas, Mattingly ultimately received only half of the votes needed for election. Another former Fish, first baseman Carlos Delgado, actually came closer to garnering the necessary support.

The other candidates who had their cases reviewed were Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Dale Murphy, Gary Sheffield and Fernando Valenzuela.

In winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4 with his fourth home run of the season. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-4. During a doubleheader, Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 3-for-6 with a walk while Orlando Ortiz-Mayr pitched solidly en route to a no-decision (4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). Berry's .452 on-base percentage would rank second in the Puerto Rican Winter League if he had enough playing time to qualify.

Only 108 days away from Marlins Opening Day.

🔷 The Winter Meetings are underway and Fish On First has two credentialed reporters there this year: Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral. They'll have thorough coverage today as Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and Marlins manager Clayton McCullough are each scheduled to speak with the media.

🔷 While making his trip north, Kevin stopped at the Marlins' spring training facility to provide updates on the ongoing construction.

🔷 Insiders from The Athletic, ESPN and USA Today each have different interpretations of Sandy Alcantara's availability on the trade market. Personally, I would be shocked if he's moved this offseason. 

🔷 Now that the Marlins have reduced their 40-man roster count to 39, here is another plug for last month's list of notable Rule 5 draft possibilities for the Marlins. The draft takes place on Wednesday.

🔷 Last week, Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida launched a sponsorship of the FOF podcast! They offer Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. With Christmas and New Year’s around the corner, boats fill up fast—everyone wants that view of the fireworks from the water. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online.

🔷 Speaking of podcasts, congratulations to Jeremiah Geiger on surpassing 200 episodes as host of Locked On Marlins.

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We have reached that stage of the MLB offseason where you can believe whichever version of reality you want. There have been a handful of major moves, but the dam hasn't fully burst yet. In the meantime, league sources are attempting to manipulate insiders to steer negotiations toward whichever outcome will ultimately benefit their team/client.

At the end of the 2025 season, Miami Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was non-committal about whether the organization would be retaining veteran rotation leader Sandy Alcantara. That has opened the door for rampant speculation.

According to reporting from Jeff Passan of ESPN, "teams aren't clamoring to give Miami the return it would need to give him up." He added in a separate article later in the week that "Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest."

Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic did not distinguish between the availability of the Dominican right-handers: "There’s a strong possibility that the Marlins end up moving one of their starters, league sources said. Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera have continued to attract serious attention from other teams."

Most recently, we have this from Bob Nightengale of USA Today as of early Sunday morning: "The Marlins have told teams that ace Sandy Alcantara is staying, but starter Edward Cabrera is available."

The general consensus is that Cabrera—who's two and a half years younger than Alcantara, coming off a much more consistent season and considerably cheaper—would bring back more talent in return if traded this winter.

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The Miami Marlins front office operates very deliberately. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but in two-plus years under the direction of Peter Bendix, the pattern is undeniable. They wait and wait and wait to extract what they deem to be appropriate value—this was exemplified most clearly at the 2024 MLB trade deadline, when the Marlins made six separate trades on deadline day itself.

Covering a deliberate front office during the offseason is, frankly, not fun. So I'm going to make it fun by inviting you to an alternate universe in which the Marlins' approach is flipped upside down.

What if all of Miami's significant 2025-26 offseason moves were already completed? This exercise does not require too much imagination because the activity of other MLB teams lets us know approximately what it would've cost the Marlins in terms of money and talent to upgrade their roster.

Let's say that the Marlins did the following:

• Signed Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal
• Signed Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28 million deal
• Traded Ryan Weathers, William Kempner and Chris Arroyo to the Boston Red Sox for Jhostynxon García and Jesús Travieso
• Traded Joe Mack to the Washington Nationals for Jose A. Ferrer and Hunter Hines
• Signed Will Banfield to a minor league deal

Each of these hypothetical moves is based on an official transaction that we have seen around the league over the past month. Naylor, Helsley and Banfield received identical contracts from the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds, respectively. The Weathers/Kempner/Arroyo package is meant to mimic the package of Johan Oviedo, Tyler Samaniego and Adonys Guzman that the Pittsburgh Pirates sent to Boston for García and Travieso.

Mack is taking the place of Harry Ford. In addition to Ford, the Mariners gave up their 2025 10th-round draft pick, right-hander Isaac Lyon, in the Ferrer trade. Seattle lacked leverage in negotiations because of the universal understanding that Ford was being "blocked" by the top catcher on the planet, Cal Raleigh, for the foreseeable future. Without that variable influencing the Marlins, I strongly believe Mack's current value is slightly higher than Ford's and it would be the Nationals including their 10th-rounder to balance the scales.

Would you have been satisfied if this was what the Marlins had actually done? All-Star-caliber first baseman in the prime of his career, two high-leverage relievers (one of whom is not even arbitration-eligible yet) and a powerful rookie outfielder. In exchange, however, they'd be parting with a controllable starting pitcher who has mid-rotation upside and a major league-ready catcher with brilliant defensive ability.

Here is an Opening Day roster projection to demonstrate how the pieces might've fit together:

• Projected starting lineup—C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Jhostynxon García, DH Heriberto Hernández
• Projected bench—Liam Hicks, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Javier Sanoja
• Projected starting rotation—RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, RHP Janson Junk, LHP Braxton Garrett
• Projected bullpen—RHP Ryan Helsley, RHP Ronny Henriquez, LHP Jose A. Ferrer, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Tyler Phillips, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Calvin Faucher, LHP Andrew Nardi

I think these Marlins would probably surpass the club's 79-83 record from last season, but their odds of earning a postseason berth would be a coin flip at best.

A few months from now once the dust settles, I'll be circling back to this as well as my original offseason blueprint and compare them to Bendix's real-life maneuvers.

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Any player left unprotected for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft is an extreme longshot. It means they are at least four years into their professional career, yet still don't occupy a spot on their team's 40-man roster or Triple-A roster. There is something—usually, multiple things—holding them back from being viable major league contributors.

Following the third Rule 5 draft of the Peter Bendix era, I have spotted a trend: the Miami Marlins like to roll the dice on pitchers with control issues. 

In 2023, it was Julio Dilone, who they selected from the Seattle Mariners organization. In 2024, it was Texas Rangers farmhand Ricky DeVito. Then this past Wednesday, the Marlins double-dipped with this player profile by picking right-handers Jake Smith (Los Angeles Angels) and Livan Reinoso (Los Angeles Dodgers).

I'm talking about pitchers who often don't have a clue where the ball is going—at best 30-grade control on the 20-80 scale. During his pre-draft season, Dilone walked 20.2% of opposing batters compared to the Arizona Complex League average of 13.1%. DeVito was issuing free passes at more than doubled his league's average (21.5% vs. 10.0% for all Texas League pitchers).

Smith and Reinoso were both in that neighborhood in 2025 and had the same deficiency in previous campaigns, as documented below:

The Dilone and DeVito projects were unsuccessful—both of them were released less than a year after joining the Marlins org.

Why might this new erratic duo be any different?

Smith's arsenal consists of a sinker, slider, curveball and changeup. Locating the sinker is his primary problem with frequent horizontal misses to both the glove side and arm side.

The 26-year-old's walk rate was particularly high toward the end of last season following a promotion to Double-A (23.5 BB% in 15.1 IP). However, there were still some impressive sequences from him at that level. Check out these paint jobs:

The low-hanging fruit with Smith is his wiry frame—he packs only 189 pounds onto his 6'4" frame. Adding strength to his lower body could help with repeating his delivery more consistently. He pretty reliably lands his breaking balls for strikes. If the Marlins can help him reshape those pitches to miss more bats, then he can utilize them to put away batters rather than relying so much on his volatile heater.

Reinoso, 27, is still relatively raw as a pitcher considering that most of his focus was devoted to being a position player prior to entering pro ball in 2022. The Dodgers moved him to the mound on a full-time basis.

Reinoso's appeal to the Marlins is obvious. He throws gas, sitting 97-99 mph with his four-seam fastball (he touched 100 in the clip below), complemented by a sweeper. His most common mistakes are four-seamers that sail high for easy takes.

Only 53.8% of Reinoso's pitches last season were strikes. For context, the worst strike rate by a qualified MLB reliever was Brendon Little at 56.8%. The likelihood of him sticking at the highest level is lower than Smith, but I can see why the Marlins deemed him worthy of the $24,500 draft fee as they dream on his upside.

Expect Smith and Reinoso to begin the 2026 season in the Double-A Pensacola bullpen.

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