Ely Sussman

For the first time in franchise history, the Miami Marlins began the MLB Draft with four consecutive college picks: Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette, Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella, Arizona State outfielder Brandon Compton and Florida State outfielder Max Williams. The convenience of taking prospects who were everyday starters for power conference schools is we have a preponderance of data and video available to forecast with a high degree of confidence what their player profiles will be in the professional ranks. Forecasting whether or not they will be successful in the pros remains a crapshoot, however. I am in a good mood this morning, so I'd like to share 90th-percentile scenarios for the careers of the Day 1 picks. Taking into account their tools, size, handedness and position, I see similarities to the following big leaguers: Arquette = Kris Bryant Cannarella = Nyjer Morgan Compton = Jason Kubel Williams = Tyler Naquin Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 7-2. Jakob Marsee reached base safely four times, but none of his teammates could drive him in. Double-A Pensacola lost, 4-1. Kemp Alderman sat out the entire week, but Fish On First farm director Alex Carver reports that the unspecified issue "isn't serious." High-A Beloit won, 8-3. Big day offensively for Connor Caskenette (3-4, 2 RBI, 2 SB). Five more stolen bases for the Sky Carp, who continue to pace the entire minor leagues this season with 228 as a team. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 I'm very grateful for the massive live viewership that our annual draft countdown/reaction show received (embedded at the bottom page). Alex Carver hosted a Twitter Space here after that where we analyzed the Cannarella, Compton and Williams picks. 🔷 Connor Norby (left wrist inflammation) landed on the 10-day injured list. Per manager Clayton McCullough, he is scheduled to see a specialist in Arizona to determine next steps. Just from my experience, that suggests to me an absence far longer than the 10-day minimum regardless of what feedback Norby receives. Graham Pauley will serve as the club's primary third baseman in the meantime against right-handed pitching with Javier Sanoja as his platoon partner. 🔷 On the other hand, Edward Cabrera (right posterior elbow discomfort) dodged a bullet. McCullough believes he will be ready to go on the other side of the All-Star break with no IL stint needed. Assuming Cabrera doesn't start the very first game out of the break, the precious trade chip is lined up to make only two more starts prior to the July 31 deadline. 🔷 The Marlins matched their largest margin of victory of the season on Sunday, with Kyle Stowers (5-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI) driving in the majority of those runs himself. He broke the all-time franchise record for most total bases in a single game. Stowers bumped up his wRC+ to 151, which ranks 12th among all qualified MLB hitters this season. It's on pace to be the sixth-highest mark for any qualified season in Marlins history. 🔷 If not for Stowers, Eury Pérez would have gotten more attention for shoving seven scoreless innings, a career-long outing for him. He leaned on his fastball 64% of the time—the O's knew it was coming and it didn't matter. The combined line over his last three starts: 18.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 21 K. Pérez looks every bit as special as he did during the first half of his rookie season, and that shouldn't be taken for granted. 🔷 The Prediction Time leaderboard has been updated through the first 31 series. Become a SuperSub and we'll keep track of your predictions all season long! 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Boston Red Sox have won 10 games in a row, while the Milwaukee Brewers are riding a seven-game streak. The Detroit Tigers head into the break with an MLB-best 59-38 record despite just being swept at home by the Seattle Mariners. 🔷 Day 2 of the draft gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET. The Marlins are on the clock next with the 108th overall pick. They will be selecting 17 total players throughout the day (one each in Rounds 4-20). I'll be adding their bios and scouting reports to this page. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Relive the moments when Aiva Arquette (Oregon State), Cam Cannarella (Clemson), Brandon Compton (Arizona State) and Max Williams (Florida State) were officially announced as Miami Marlins MLB Draft selections. View full video

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's road series against the Baltimore Orioles. It's also the final game before the All-Star break. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Jesús Sánchez (L) DH Agustín Ramírez LF Kyle Stowers (L) SS Otto Lopez 1B Liam Hicks (L) CF Dane Myers 3B Graham Pauley (L) C Nick Fortes P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

The Miami Marlins will begin assembling their 2025 MLB Draft class on Sunday night with the seventh overall pick ($7,149,900 slot value). Here is an aggregation of what draft insiders are predicting them to do in their latest mock drafts. Some of the mocks also include the club's Competitive Balance Round A pick (43rd overall) and second-rounder (46th overall). Carlos Collazo of Baseball America No. 7 pick: Ike Irish "Irish to the Marlins was another popular link in the last 48 hours or so. It sounds like he has a chance to go even higher than this, but Miami is the team I’ve heard on him the most. The Marlins have been tough to pin down because like many of the next few teams on the board, they’ve largely been tied to all of the top players available...Other Names We're Hearing: Eli Willits, Aiva Arquette, Billy Carlson, JoJo Parker." No. 43 pick: Charles Davalan "I’m tempted to tie the Marlins to one of the many prep shortstops I’ve heard them linked to, but Davalan could also be a good fit for them and might be more likely to come off the board sooner." Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline No. 7 pick: Billy Carlson "We’ve written repeatedly how much the Marlins like Willits, but with him gone, Carlson could be the top target, though they also are looking at Parker. This could be another landing spot for Irish, and Arizona outfielder Brendan Summerhill’s name has been mentioned. Arnold is the main arm brought up in this spot." No. 43 pick: Mason Neville Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline No. 7 pick: Aiva Arquette "The Marlins are hunting for hitters: Arquette and Irish from the college ranks, and Willits and Parker from the high school crop. If they somehow all go in the top six, Carlson would be the fallback." No. 43 pick: Charles Davalan Kiley McDaniel of ESPN No. 7 pick: JoJo Parker "I think this will come down to Parker, Irish, and Billy Carlson—and I think Parker has the edge." Keith Law of The Athletic No. 7 pick: Billy Carlson "The Marlins are one of the only teams in the top 10 I’ve heard primarily on high schoolers all spring, mostly the shortstop group with Eli Willits, Carlson and JoJo Parker, along with right-hander Seth Hernandez." Tyler Jennings and Jared Perkins of Just Baseball No. 7 pick: Billy Carlson "The buzz surrounding the Marlins is leaning heavily into the prep side, which certainly fits their approach. With Willits off the board, it comes down to Billy Carlson and JoJo Parker, with Carlson seeming more likely than Parker. "I wouldn’t discount Carlson’s high school teammate, Hernandez, either." View full article

Marlins top prospect Thomas White pitched the top of the third inning of the 2025 Futures Game at Truist Park. Watch all 30 pitches of his outing here. View full video

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's road series against the Baltimore Orioles. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) C Agustín Ramírez DH Heriberto Hernandez SS Otto Lopez 1B Eric Wagaman LF Dane Myers RF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Derek Hill 3B Javier Sanoja P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Baltimore Orioles. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) RF Jesús Sánchez (L) SS Otto Lopez C Agustín Ramírez LF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Eric Wagaman DH Liam Hicks (L) 3B Connor Norby CF Javier Sanoja P Edward Cabrera Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the fourth and final game of Miami's road series against the Cincinnati Reds. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) DH Agustín Ramírez SS Otto Lopez 1B Eric Wagaman 3B Connor Norby RF Dane Myers LF Heriberto Hernandez C Nick Fortes CF Derek Hill P Cal Quantrill Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

The Miami Marlins traded Nick Fortes to the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday morning. This season—his fifth at the major league level—Fortes was more or less performing to the standard that the Marlins have grown accustomed to. However, the 28-year-old catcher became expendable as younger alternatives at the catcher position with higher offensive ceilings come up behind him. That's a good problem to have. Acquired via the Rule 5 Draft, Liam Hicks has made a surprisingly positive impact. He's got a Fortes-like aptitude for blocking pitches in the dirt to go along with a sophisticated plate approach. The left-handed-hitting Canadian has accrued 0.7 fWAR in 72 games. Fellow rookie Agustín Ramírez received his initial call-up when Fortes was on the injured list and immediately demonstrated that he's a legitimate power threat. It left the Marlins no choice but to simultaneously roster all three catchers. Realistically, Ramírez's future is not behind the plate. Monday's game in St. Louis happened to be one of his sloppiest defensive efforts, including errors for an errant throw and catcher interference. A handful of replies to the Fish On First Twitter account fumed about it, pleading for Joe Mack to be called up. Even more so than Hicks or Ramírez, Mack's progression is most responsible for pushing Fortes out the door. Drafted by the Marlins in 2021, he enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2024, leading all Miami minor leaguers in home runs while winning the MiLB Gold Glove at his position. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Jacksonville in April of this year and continues to thrive on defense. Mack was a slam-dunk selection to represent the Marlins at the Futures Game in Atlanta. In 2025, Mack is slashing .258/.335/.436 with a 112 wRC+ through his first 78 games played. With only a handful of exceptions, he's younger than every pitcher he has faced. Fish On First ranks him second among Marlins prospects behind only Thomas White. With the Fortes trade now official, will we see Mack selected to the roster as the corresponding move? No, and here's why. The 22-year-old could have made it a tougher decision by going on a heater following the Futures Game. Instead, it's been the opposite—Mack is scuffling with the bat lately. In seven games post-All-Star break, he has posted a .115/.179/.192 slash line with an egregious 57.1% strikeout rate. Almost all of those strikeouts have been whiffs against non-fastballs. There's no sense in exposing him to the big leagues until he gets back to tracking balls more clearly out of the pitcher's hand. b0c1TFFfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1VBUlVWMVJSVTFFQUNsWlRVZ0FIVkE5ZUFGZ0FWRlFBQkZNQUNRWU1Cd05VQmdZRg==.mp4 As a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect, Mack is a prime candidate for MLB's Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI). The name is ironic because in this case, it actually behooves the Marlins to preserve his rookie eligibility for 2026 instead of calling him up now. If Mack spends a full year in the majors next season and wins National League Rookie of the Year, the Marlins would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2027 draft (plus the millions of dollars in bonus pool money associated with that pick). Mack will still be ROY-eligible next season if he spends 45 days or fewer on the Marlins active roster this season. Waiting until August 15 for a call-up would thread that needle. It isn't a lock that Mack debuts in 2025, to be clear. He must first bust out of his mini-slump. Then, the Marlins have to decide whether to abandon the Agustín Ramírez catching experiment, or zag the other way and maximize his reps down the stretch just in case something clicks. Mack is not yet on the club's 40-man roster. He will need to be selected by mid-November to protect him from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Perhaps the Marlins want to kick that can down the road as far as possible to give themselves flexibility for other transactions. Without being hyperbolic, Mack has the potential to be the best catcher to play for the Marlins since J.T. Realmuto. Just have a little patience with him. View full article

Injuries happen, especially to pitchers. It would be frustrating if recurring elbow problems or another physical setback interrupted Sandy Alcantara's comeback from Tommy John surgery or clearly diminished the quality of his stuff. Frustrating, but understandable. In Alcantara's case, he has seemingly dealt with zero health issues, making every scheduled start and only leaving the mound when the game situation dictated he should. That's what makes his historically poor results so sad. From a distance, he resembles the ace that Marlins fans once adored—the way opposing hitters are pummeling him tells a different story. Alcantara starts used to be special attractions worth paying for; more often than not this season, they've been momentum-killers. A bunch of Marlins players have exceeded expectations in 2025 en route to the club being 10 games ahead of their 2024 pace. The starting rotation has turned a corner over the last month or so...with the exception of Alcantara, who has shown glimpses of being a reliable starter, but nothing more than that. Miami's longtime rotation leader is now holding them back. We have run out of excuses to make on his behalf, especially when his pupil and fellow TJ survivor, Eury Pérez, has already authored two truly dominant outings in a smaller sample. Trading Alcantara at this upcoming July 31 deadline would be selling low and ending his Marlins tenure on a bitter note. His luck should turn around with enough second-half reps, but how can we be sure when the player himself is lacking confidence? It's an extremely uncomfortable situation for all involved. Down on the farm, Double-A Pensacola won, 16-9. The Blue Wahoos piled on eight of those runs in the top of the ninth inning. Three extra-base hits and four runs batted in for Nathan Martorella (both of those being season-highs for him). High-A Beloit won, 5-1. Nice work by Will Schomberg (5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 72 pitches/47 strikes). Gage Miller had a crucial bases-clearing double. Low-A Jupiter lost, 6-4. FCL Marlins lost, 5-2. Nearly a full year removed from being drafted, Aiden May (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K) made his long-awaited professional debut. Miami's Competitive Balance Round B pick, May underwent right elbow arthroscopic surgery in March. If all goes smoothly, the 22-year-old should be joining Jupiter's rotation at the end of the month following the conclusion of the complex league season. Fabian Lopez, who had just three hits over his previous 10 games combined, went 4-for-4 to finish a home run shy of the cycle. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 The Marlins claimed right-handed Tyler Zuber off waivers from the New York Mets. Zuber made 54 relief appearances with the 2020-21 Kansas City Royals, but he has accrued only 5 ⅓ innings pitched in The Show since then. In 28 innings with the Syracuse Mets this season, he posted a 6.11 ERA, 4.70 FIP and .278 BAA. He's been using a four-seam fastball/sweeper/changeup pitch mix. The 30-year-old Arkansas native has been optioned to Jacksonville. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, Nick Nastrini was designated for assignment. Solid chance that Nastrini clears waivers and remains with the organization, in my opinion. 🔷 Baseball insider Francys Romero hears that the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are pursuing an Edward Cabrera trade. 🔷 I made the case that Jakob Marsee is ready to step into Jesús Sánchez's role as the Marlins' primary right fielder. 🔷 Isaac Azout checked in with each of the 2020 Marlins draft class, five years later. 🔷 Projections by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs remain bullish on Alcantara, and Szymborski cites the lack of solid starting pitching alternatives who are believed to be available on the trade market. 🔷 Kevin Defrank is one of the prospects "making noise" with his performance in the Dominican Summer League, per Josh Norris of Baseball America. "The Marlins have a host of arms lurking on their pair of DSL teams, and Defrank might be at the top of the food chain. The righthander was one of the most celebrated arms in the most recent international signing class, praise which came in part because of a fastball that can already touch triple-digits. He backs his outstanding heater with a hard slider and a changeup that has flashed solid potential as well." 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Baltimore Orioles traded Bryan Baker to the Tampa Bay Rays for a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick (the 37th overall pick). My mind went immediately to Anthony Bender, who is the same age as Baker and has had roughly the same amount of MLB experience and production. Bender is performing better in 2025, but he's also slightly more expensive and a year closer to free agency. 🔷 Also, the New York Yankees released infielder DJ LeMahieu. A 15-year MLB veteran, LeMahieu is owed nearly $22 million through the end of next season. The Boston Red Sox have won six in a row and the Los Angeles Dodgers have lost six in a row. Zach McKinstry (Detroit Tigers), Trevor Megill (Milwaukee Brewers), Isaac Paredes (Houston Astros) and Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) have been added to the All-Star Game rosters, replacing players at their respective positions who are unavailable to participate. 🔷 Today's MLB game: it's the series finale between the Marlins and Cincinnati Reds (probable starters RHP Cal Quantrill and LHP Nick Lodolo). Quantrill last faced the Reds at Great American Ball Park almost exactly one year ago (7/9/24) and had one of the shortest starts of his MLB career (2.0 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). The Marlins have a 39.4% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 5:10 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

I still don't know what happened to Jakob Marsee last season. Our Fish On First staff had tabbed Marsee as a high-probability future fourth outfielder when the Miami Marlins acquired him, but besides drawing walks and hit-by-pitches, he did very little at the plate against Double-A competition. Marsee finished 2024 on a relative high note coinciding with his promotion to Triple-A. Spending all of 2025 at that level, he has fully gotten back on track. At this point, the left-handed hitter is merely biding his time until room opens up for him to play in MLB. That opportunity could be coming in a matter of weeks. Marsee's counting stats are gaudy. Entering Thursday, the 24-year-old leads the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in hits (71), home runs (12), total bases (128), runs scored (45), walks (53) and games played (82). He has even accounted for a majority of the club's sacrifice bunts. Most notably, he paces the entire International League with 40 stolen bases. Marsee is a plus runner. His 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed this season would rank second among all Marlins big leaguers behind only Derek Hill. About half of Marsee's defensive reps in 2025 have come in right field. He doesn't possess prototypical arm strength for the position, but he compensates for that with accuracy and composure—you won't see him airmailing his target out of desperation and gifting extra bases to opponents. 253p6v_1.mp4 At the very least, Marsee would be more impactful than Hill. The bolder question is, would he provide comparable or superior value to longtime Marlin Jesús Sánchez? Pairing his consistently good plate approach with a recent uptick in power makes it plausible. There is significantly less raw power to harness, to be clear. While the 6'4" Sánchez has shown the ability to go deep to all fields, the 6'0" Marsee is only a threat to do so to his pull side. Thankfully, he recognizes that—Marsee has been hitting balls to right field more frequently than he did during any of his previous minor league campaigns. All 12 of his homers this season have been hit to right or right-center. As Marlins fans are well aware, Sánchez's glaring flaw is production against left-handed pitching. He is a lifetime .180/.229/.290 MLB hitter with the platoon disadvantage and even worse so far in 2025. Marsee comes with that same red flag—since arriving at AAA, there is a 205-point gap in his OPS depending on pitcher handedness (.834 OPS vs. RHP, .629 OPS vs. LHP). That means hot-hitting, right-handed rookie Heriberto Hernandez would still be getting ample opportunities against southpaws. Sánchez amassed 1.4 fWAR in 2023 and 1.5 fWAR in 2024. He's on pace for a similar number yet again at age 27. That should not be taken for granted, but Marsee has the potential to match, if not exceed his overall output. The Marlins would save close to $1.5 million by trading Sánchez at the July 31 deadline. The far greater motivation, however, should be the combo of receiving prospect capital in return and finding out how Marsee's skill set translates to the majors. View full article

No other pitcher who is realistically going to be available at the upcoming MLB trade deadline can match Edward Cabrera's combination of recent production, pure stuff and multiple years of cost-efficient club control. According to Francys Romero of Beisbol FR, the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are two of the contenders already expressing interest in him. It's been suspected that the Cubs would aggressively shop for starting pitching help ever since Justin Steele underwent season-ending elbow surgery. Additionally, they just lost veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon to a right calf strain last week, though he's likely to return later in the year. Chicago enters Wednesday night with a two-game lead atop the National League Central division. The Cubs and Marlins hooked up on a tiny trade last offseason, swapping Vidal Bruján for Matt Mervis. More notably, they had talks regarding a Jesús Luzardo deal prior to Luzardo going to the Philadelphia Phillies, sources confirmed to Fish On First. Similar story for the Mets. They are just a half-game back of the Phillies for the NL East lead and strongly motivated to chase a championship in 2025. They've done business with Peter Bendix's front office before, but nothing that involved an asset of Cabrera's magnitude. Beyond those teams, the New York Yankees presumably would be a logical landing spot, as Alex Carver detailed here recently. In 15 starts this season, the 27-year-old Cabrera has a 3.33 ERA and career-best 3.88 FIP in 78 ⅓ innings pitched. After allowing three earned runs against the Cubs at loanDepot park on May 19, he has held eight straight opponents to two earned runs or fewer. Cabrera is projected to make three more starts between now and the deadline. View full rumor

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third game of Miami's road series against the Cincinnati Reds. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) DH Agustín Ramírez LF Heriberto Hernandez SS Otto Lopez 1B Eric Wagaman RF Dane Myers 3B Connor Norby CF Derek Hill C Nick Fortes P Sandy Alcantara Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Hard to remember the last Marlins team that had SEVERAL hitters who are brand new to the majors producing so well. Ramirez, Hicks and Hernandez all fit that description. Especially impressive considering that Hicks and Hernandez were acquired for nothing.