Ely Sussman

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins games. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Sánchez has come a long way over the last six months, but there are still clear differences between what we're seeing this spring and the pitch characteristics that made him the Marlins' top prospect prior to his health issues. The last time (and the only time) we saw Sixto Sánchez pitch in 2023, he was unrecognizable. On September 12 of that season, he threw one inning for the Miami Marlins' Double-A Pensacola affiliate. Sánchez finessed his way through a scoreless frame on 18 pitches. None of them topped 88 miles per hour. He was scratched from his next scheduled appearance and written off as a viable member of the Marlins pitching staff moving forward. Prior to his shoulder injury, I was bullish on Sánchez's long-term outlook. Beyond the elite fastball velocity, he flaunted a deep pitch mix, plus command and a knack for earning outs early in a plate appearance. That version of Sixto—the one who elicited Pedro Martínez comps, posted a 3.46 ERA/3.50 FIP as a rookie starter and was instrumental to the Marlins snapping their 17-year postseason drought—is never coming back. However, the portly right-hander who reported to this year's spring training with zero expectations has made substantial strides since last summer's ugly cameo. During his first live batting practice session of 2024, Sánchez sat 92-94 mph with his fastball. In his first Grapefruit League appearance, he topped out at 95. Then on Friday, 96. "He feels good, which is probably the biggest thing for him obviously and for us," manager Skip Schumaker said postgame on Friday. "For him to come back and feel like he's ready to go is good. The next step is, is it multiple innings? What do back-to-backs look like? All that stuff. He has to check some boxes still, but overall, pretty good." There isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to make between the old Sixto and the new Sixto due to his role switch. After multiple surgeries and countless setbacks, he's becoming a reliever to limit his workload. His attack plan will likely look different without having to prioritize efficiency to the same extent or worry about facing the same batters multiple times. That being said, via Statcast, we can analyze how Sánchez's quality of stuff has changed from his final 2021 pre-injury outing to his ongoing audition for a 2024 Opening Day roster spot. Here is Sánchez's Baseball Savant "pitcher report" from March 25, 2021. He encountered a close-to-full-strength Washington Nationals lineup at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium and threw 61 total pitches. He was relatively effective (3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) despite only inducing three swinging strikes. Sánchez's max velocity that day was 100.5 mph, more than four ticks above his fastest post-injury heater. He averaged 97.6 mph on sinkers/four-seamers with 16.8 inches of horizontal break on the sinker. Sánchez made heavy use of his cutter (37.7% usage) and changeup (27.9%). Both pitches averaged a shade below 91 mph. Fast-forward to the current spring training, Sánchez had 32 total pitches recorded by Statcast during his March 2 and March 8 appearances (both at Roger Dean vs. the New York Mets). His pitch types are being classified much differently as the system tries to recalibrate to his diminished stuff. Statcast does not know what to do with Sánchez's fastballs so far in 2024. Most of them are showing up as four-seamers (10 thrown)—on average, those are breaking only 7.2 inches horizontally at 94.5 mph. Two other pitches (91.0 mph and 92.2 mph) have been labeled "cutters" despite behaving nothing like his old cutter. There's also one "changeup" at 92.4 mph that is clearly out of place. Combining all of these, his fastball average dips below 94. Sánchez's slider, which was absent from the Nats game, was the fifth pitch in his repertoire during the 2020 season. That is now tracking as a curveball because its average velo has plummeted from 85.8 mph to 80.5 mph. This spring, Statcast has detected one "slider" from Sánchez at 88.7 mph, which I've embedded below. That is not a slider—it looks like a lousy cutter. It earned the desired result (a called strike), but Sánchez meant to throw it to the other side of the plate. See for yourself: vs0yeb.mp4 The signature Sixto changeup hasn't gone anywhere. He's at 40.7% usage with it once you manually omit the mislabeled fastball mentioned earlier and add a "curveball" that had obvious changeup spin. He has solid command of it and the armside run is still there. x0lvm1.mp4 What worries me about Sánchez is how little spin he's generating on his four-seamer and curveball. That was never a strength of his game to begin with and now he'll have even more trouble missing bats with them. Aided by Braxton Garrett's shoulder issues and Huascar Brazoban's unavailability, it is plausible that Sixto Sánchez cracks the initial Marlins active roster. I don't think he is a top-13 pitcher in Marlins camp, but he's out of minor league options, so the alternative is designating him for assignment. It's understandable to be curious about how much more velo he could potentially conjure as he continues shaking off the cobwebs. Like Schumaker said, Sánchez needs to show his ability to adapt to multi-inning and/or back-to-back situations. It's not practical to hold onto a single-inning reliever who operates on a starter's schedule, only contributing once every five days. Fish On First will closely monitor Sánchez's remaining Grapefruit League outings for further signs of improvement. As things currently stand, I'd advise you to continue holding off on placing any expectations on him. View full article

The veteran corner infielder is available on the waiver wire and could add considerable value in a part-time role. The Miami Marlins aren't quite done shopping for bats to bolster their 2024 offense. Although their interest level in newly waived San Francisco Giants infielder J.D. Davis is unknown, you better believe they are at least analyzing how he'd potentially fit. Davis slashed .248/.325/.413 last season with a 104 wRC+, producing 2.2 fWAR in 144 games played at age 30. Throughout his career, his rate stats have been practically identical against right-handed and left-handed pitching. His batted ball profile has generally lended itself to a very high batting average on balls in play, though that wasn't the case following the All-Star break (.264 BABIP compared to his lifetime .337 BABIP). In six Cactus League games with the Giants this spring, Davis slashed .400/.471/.800 with two home runs. He also registered an eye-popping exit velocity of 112.2 mph on a base hit (a number he's only touched twice in MLB regular season contests). Defensive metrics had mixed interpretations on Davis' work as a third baseman in 2023. He accrued minus-11 defensive runs saved, which explains the major discrepancy between his fWAR and 0.9 bWAR. Meanwhile, he provided plus-4 run value there according to Statcast. e14adf6f-90b9b747-6305fe8a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4 San Francisco's signings of free agents Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler made Davis expendable entering his final year of club control. He's due $6.9M in 2024—by placing him on waivers, the Giants are conceding he doesn't carry any surplus value at that price. They also appear to be gambling that some team will claim him and take full responsibility for Davis' salary, otherwise you figure they would've eaten a percentage of the money to facilitate a trade already. If the Marlins were to claim Davis, he could find semi-regular at-bats at third base, first base and designated hitter. There is redundancy between his skill set and Jake Burger's, but they could co-exist to lengthen the lineup. In emergency situations, Davis could also play the corner outfield spots. The hang-up here—the same one that applies to the club's pursuit of free agent J.D. Martinez—is determining which hitter currently projected to make the Opening Day roster is being replaced by Davis. Avisaíl García is the weakest link, but the Marlins are reluctant to swallow the $29M remaining on his contract. All of the other hitters in the mix have some kind of trade value and little else to prove in the minors. I'm actually predicting Davis to clear waivers. We have seen somewhat comparable players like Garrett Cooper and Eddie Rosario sign minor league free agent deals that don't come close to reaching $6.9M even if performance bonuses are achieved. If that happens, the Giants would be on the hook for nearly 90% of his salary, with whoever signs him paying the league minimum of $740k. Davis' market would be robust in free agency as a league-minimum player. Would he select the Marlins' offer over others that may come from teams with more hitter-friendly home ballparks and higher postseason odds? Although inefficient financially, claiming Davis off waivers takes that choice away from him. To reiterate, it is a moot point unless the Marlins have a plan to trade/option/release one of their position players to accommodate him. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Marlins news roundup for 3/8/24 Fish On First is providing extensive coverage on location throughout Marlins spring training. Click here to keep up with our latest updates. 🔷 The inaugural Spring Breakout prospect showcase is one week away and the full Marlins roster was announced on Thursday. The group includes a player with MLB experience, a couple who haven't even played affiliated ball in the U.S. yet and every level in between. 🔷 Inspired by the World Baseball Classic and Caribbean Series, the Marlins are encouraging fans to recreate that atmosphere this season by bringing flags and musical instruments to LoanDepot Park and participate in new chants/sing-alongs. Other baseball leagues have set a precedent for how to do lively in-game chants, but I don't foresee this having staying power. With so many MLB regular season games, the stakes just aren't high enough to persuade typical attendees to expend their energy throughout the game. Doesn't help that the stands will be half-empty for most of those games. 🔷 Amerant Bank announced a multi-year partnership with the Marlins to be their official "Hometown Bank." You'll see Amerant signage at the ballpark and they'll be making donations to the Miami Marlins Foundation for every save the team records at home. 🔷 Our 2024 bold Marlins predictions are here. I'm forecasting some slippage from Luis Arraez and Braxton Garrett, a significant role for Victor Mesa Jr., big production from Josh Bell and immediate success for A.J. Puk in the club's starting rotation. 🔷 Kevin Barral looks at the fascinating background of Elvis Alvarado and the nice first impression he's made at Marlins camp. 🔷 Today's game: Mets (RHP Luis Severino) vs. Marlins (RHP Eury Pérez) at 6:40 p.m. No television coverage. 🔷 Happy 28th birthday to Dane Myers. FOF's 13th-ranked Marlins prospect, Myers clobbered Double-A pitching (132 wRC+) and Triple-A pitching (137 wRC+) during his first season in the Marlins org en route to The Show. Should any of the established outfielders on Miami's roster suffer an injury in the coming weeks, he could potentially squeeze onto the 26-man. 🔷 Christina De Nicola of MLB.com details the longtime friendship between Tristan Gray and Myers, who were previously travel ball and college teammates. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

The total silence on the extension front is most concerning. For low-revenue teams, it is essential to make long-term gambles on young players before they are fully formed. The math doesn't work in your favor if you take it one year at a time with everybody. Still a few weeks left to get something done with a core player (rare to see those negotiations during the season).

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Marlins news roundup for 3/7/24 Fish On First is providing extensive coverage on location throughout Marlins spring training. Click here to keep up with our latest updates. 🔷 On Wednesday, Jesús Luzardo (3.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 3 HR) became the first Marlins starting pitcher of the spring to genuinely struggle on the mound. The original Marlins lineup looked like an Opening Day dress rehearsal, but the entire starting outfield was scratched as a precaution to avoid dealing with the messy weather conditions. The Nationals won, 9-3. 🔷 During the first of several planned interviews with Skip Schumaker, he told the Marlins Radio Network that "we made it a point of emphasis to control the running game" entering spring training. That's coming off a season where Miami allowed 130 stolen bases (seventh-most in MLB) at a 85.0% success rate (third-highest in MLB). Schumaker noted that the Marlins lead the Grapefruit League with four pickoffs through 11 games and he singled out Edward Cabrera for quickening his delivery to the plate. The full conversation is embedded at the bottom of this page. 🔷 Releasing Avisaíl García would open the door for internal candidates to compete for an active roster spot, make Miami a better fit for remaining OF/DH free agents, and expand the universe of possible pitcher-for-hitter trades, as I wrote earlier today. I highly doubt it will happen before the regular season begins, but I felt it was worth acknowledging that this route is available. 🔷 Jazz Chisholm Jr. recognizes that "I don’t have to go max effort every single play" to be the best (and healthiest) version of himself, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. 🔷 Michael Baumann of FanGraphs observed that Max Meyer gets minimal velocity separation between his pitches. "I would venture that in addition to generating great movement, Meyer is going to have to learn to change speeds if he’s going to stick in the rotation," Baumann concludes. 🔷 On the latest episode of Fish On First LIVE, we did segments on a bunch of Marlins pitchers and projected which of them will make the Opening Day rotation. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks! If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Nationals signed Eddie Rosario to a minor league deal. 🔷 The Marlins' Spring Breakout roster will be announced today at 11:00 a.m. ET on MLB Network. 🔷 Next spring game for the Marlins is Friday night's home matchup against the Mets with probable starters Eury Pérez and Luis Severino. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Imagining a scenario where the Marlins cut their losses with García to make way for a more complementary and more productive player. I have said/written very little about Miami Marlins outfielder Avisaíl García during the brief existence of Fish On First. The site went live in May 2023, and by then, what more was there to add? It was already apparent that his $53M contract was a sunk cost. García was absent for the vast majority of last season's fun due to back and hamstring injuries. When he was on the field, his production was somehow even worse than it had been in 2022. Across 135 total games played as a Marlin, Avi has slashed .215/.260/.316 (59 wRC+) and accrued -1.1 fWAR. Had he been healthier and continued on that same pace, hindering a team with postseason ambitions, he might've been released many months ago despite the financial ramifications. García is probably going to be on the 2024 Marlins Opening Day roster. During his first offseason as Miami's president of baseball operations, Peter Bendix had several opportunities to designate the struggling 32-year-old for assignment to create openings on the 40-man for new acquisitions—every time, Bendix DFA'd (and subsequently lost control of) other players instead. Entering Thursday, García ranks second on the Marlins with 18 Grapefruit League plate appearances, repeatedly getting chances to put what he learned from training alongside Luis Arraez into practice (he has not capitalized on those chances thus far). All indications are that he will be evaluated in regular season games before facing the risk of unemployment. But let's spend a few minutes exploring an alternate universe where the painful, appropriate decision has been made. What else could the team do with that valuable roster spot? Regardless of García's presence, these 12 hitters seem to be locked into active roster spots: Catchers Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes Infielders Tim Anderson, Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jon Berti and Jake Burger Outfielders Vidal Bruján, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Nick Gordon and Jesús Sánchez It's a malleable group. Fortes and Bell are limited to catcher and first base, respectively, but every other player could be utilized at multiple positions depending on what the team needs. Looking inside the organization first, the other hitters on the 40-man roster are INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jonah Bride, INF Xavier Edwards, OF Victor Mesa Jr. and OF Dane Myers. Amaya would contribute the best possible shortstop defense. Edwards went 37-for-41 on MLB/MiLB stolen base attempts last season and looks to be the best bunter in Jupiter. Still relatively new to full-time hitting, Myers is an impressive athlete with the potential to be a good run producer if he elevates the ball more. Notable non-roster invitees at Marlins big league camp include Jonathan Davis, Tristan Gray, Troy Johnston and Trey Mancini. Do you dare to dream about the Marlins making a last-minute free agent signing? There aren't any candidates left for a García-esque long-term deal, but available veterans like J.D. Martinez, Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham could help. On the cheaper side, what about betting on the intangibles of future Hall of Famer Joey Votto? Yes, he's still out there. The Marlins starting rotation looks terrific this spring, even beyond the projected top five starters. An extra roster spot on the position player side would lend itself to a wider variety of trade possibilities, such as swapping one of Miami's arms for a controllable bat. Think Christopher Morel of the Cubs or Ezequiel Duran of the Rangers. What would you do to fill Avi García's shoes? Let us know in the comments. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Marlins news roundup for 3/6/24 Fish On First is providing extensive coverage on location throughout Marlins spring training. Click here to keep up with our latest updates. 🔷 On Monday, Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers combined to toss six scoreless innings against an Opening Day-caliber Astros lineup. Nick Gordon's diving catch in center field certainly helped. Jonah Bride delivered the go-ahead home run in the eighth. The Marlins won, 2-0. Prior to the game, the first round of cuts from big league camp were announced: INF Jacob Berry, LHP Kent Emanuel, C Bennett Hostetler, RHP Jeff Lindgren, RHP Darren McCaughan and LHP Patrick Monteverde. 🔷 Braxton Garrett has been ruled out of the Marlins Opening Day rotation, per Skip Schumaker. Garrett says his left shoulder feels "much better" than it did when he reported to camp, but he isn't even facing live batters yet. Barring setbacks, he should be fully stretched out by the middle of April. 🔷 Renovations to Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium have been pushed back an additional year, as Joe Capozzi explains. The bulk of the work will begin at the end of 2025 spring training and they're aiming to complete the project in time for 2026 spring training. Here's a look at the new two-story "Fan Zone" that will replace Roger Dean's old-school bleacher seats: 🔷 In minor league news, INF Cobie Fletcher-Vance retired. During his two seasons in the Marlins organization, Fletcher-Vance slashed .244/.307/.338 (72 wRC+) in 164 games, primarily playing third base. The 26-year-old briefly tasted Triple-A, but spent the vast majority of that time with Double-A Pensacola. Best of luck to Cobie on whatever comes next. A 2019 Marlins draft pick and Air Force officer, INF Nic Ready has been activated after nearly two full years on the military leave list. 🔷 Join us tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks! If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Today's game: Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin) vs. Marlins (LHP Jesús Luzardo) at 1:10 p.m. No television coverage. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Lucas Giolito (who signed with the Red Sox in free agency) could miss the entire season with a right elbow injury. The Athletics unveiled renderings of their proposed 33,000-seat Las Vegas ballpark. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs... View full article

Marlins big league camp has been trimmed from 65 players to 59 following this initial round of cuts. In advance of the team's 10th Grapefruit League game, the Miami Marlins announced their first round of spring training cuts on Tuesday morning. All of these players remain with the Marlins organization—they just weren't serious candidates to earn Opening Day roster spots. They'll appear in spring games less frequently moving forward as the established big leaguers gradually increase their workloads. In alphabetical order: INF Jacob Berry (.375 BA, .944 OPS in 9 PA during Grapefruit League play) reassigned to minor league camp LHP Kent Emanuel (22.50 ERA, 5.00 WHIP in 2.0 IP) reassigned to minor league camp C Bennett Hostetler (.000 BA, .000 OPS in 3 PA) reassigned to minor league camp RHP Jeff Lindgren (3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 3.0 IP) reassigned to minor league camp RHP Darren McCaughan (0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 2.0 IP) optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville LHP Patrick Monteverde (0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP in 4.0 IP) reassigned to minor league camp Berry ranked 14th and Monteverde ranked 15th on our newly updated Fish On First Top 30 prospects list. View full article