Ely Sussman

The only multi-year deal I've really liked is Lourdes Gurriel staying with the D-backs (3/$42M). But there have been a bunch of 1-year signings that come at no risk and could cumulatively make a dramatic difference. Would be far easier to trade from the team's rotation depth if they had brought in an additional veteran like Martin Perez or Jack Flaherty. We'll see what he ultimately gets, but I'd be in favor of an Adam Duvall reunion. Then, take a flier on Tim Anderson.

Yeah, that's fair. Troy has struggled at 1B defensively even beyond the errors. It is still a relatively new position (began playing there in 2021), so there is a shred of hope that he makes progress this season thanks to simply building up reps. Easier to justify having him in the big leagues if he's adding any value with the glove.

Marlins news roundup for 2/19/24 Here's what you should know with 38 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins spring training workout. Follow Isaac Azout, Noah Berger and Alex Carver for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex and check out our staff's 2024 Spring Training Journal (new entries every day). 🔹 No word yet on whether there's an agreement between the Marlins and free agent Tim Anderson, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. seems to be in favor of signing him. 🔹 Today marks the start of live batting practice matchups at Marlins big league camp. The conventional wisdom is that "pitchers are ahead of hitters" at this stage of camp, so don't expect to see too many barreled balls. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, Jorge Soler's three-year contract with the Giants is finally official. 🔹 On The Offishial Show, I have the Marlins Opening Day payroll projected at $90.575M, which would be slightly lower than last year. 🔹 Nearly three years removed from his initial right shoulder injury, Sixto Sánchez is still "not the same" pitcher he used to be, Mel Stottlemyre Jr. says candidly. Even so, the former top prospect has thrown two bullpen sessions as scheduled. He's out of minor league options, so he will remain in big league camp for the foreseeable future. Are the Marlins really going to put him into Grapefruit League games with such diminished stuff? 🔹 Laura Georgia assesses how Christian Bethancourt fits with the Marlins and reflects on the winding road he took to get to Miami. 🔹 Christina De Nicola of MLB.com and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald both wrote about how Trevor Rogers used LEGO sets to keep himself occupied last summer while rehabbing from injury. 🔹 Enjoy our growing YouTube playlist of interviews and press conferences from Jupiter. (Please subscribe to the YouTube channel if you don't already do so!) Marlins Podcast Episodes View full article

Episode #213 With the 2024 season rapidly approaching, Ely questions why the Miami Marlins aren't re-investing more of their profits into building the best possible roster. Ely Sussman projects the Marlins' Opening Day payroll, then compares it to previous seasons and what other MLB teams are spending. The methodology used is very similar to this projection from mid-November. Last season, the Marlins sold 1,162,819 paid tickets to home games, by far their highest total of the Bruce Sherman ownership era. Earlier this month, they sold hundreds of thousands more while hosting the Caribbean Series at LoanDepot Park. Despite previous concerns that their lucrative local television deal could be in jeopardy due to Diamond Sports Group's bankruptcy proceedings, that situation has since calmed down (at least for the 2024 season). On top of that, they continue to be one of Major League Baseball's revenue-sharing recipients. So...where is all of this money going? Find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes Fish Unfiltered, Big Fish Small Pod, Swimming Upstream and more. Projecting 2024 Marlins Opening Day payroll Josh Bell—$16.5M Avisaíl García—$12M Luis Arraez—$10.6M Sandy Alcantara—$9.3M Tanner Scott—$5.7M Jesús Luzardo—$5.5M Jon Berti—$3.625M Matt Barnes—$2.75M (buyout) Jazz Chisholm Jr.—$2.625M Johnny Cueto—$2.5M (buyout) Jesús Sánchez—$2.1M Christian Bethancourt—$2.05M A.J. Puk—$1.8M Trevor Rogers—$1.53M JT Chargois—$1.285M Nick Gordon—$900k Anthony Bender—$770k Filling active roster with 12 pre-arb players at approx. $753.3k each—$9.04M That adds up to $90.575M. Per Cot's Contracts, that number was $92.575M entering the 2023 season. The Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates are spending significantly less on their projected rosters, but the Marlins could rank as low as 28th in MLB unless they make additions between now and Opening Day. How do you feel about this? Do you think the Marlins should be required to spend at a certain level, or do you not care as long as the team is competitive? Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article

On The Offishial Show, Ely Sussman takes us through his step-by-step projection of the Marlins' Opening Day payroll. View full video

Mel is too candid to ever be a manager 😅

I still insist that there are teams who will regret passing on him. Particularly for teams without a good incumbent 1B who don't have the urgency to contend for a World Series title in 2024, he was worth taking the flier on. While it's an unsexy profile, if he proves to be viable as a merely okay platoon bat, all of the years of club control you get would make it an extremely efficient investment. Outstanding makeup too, for what it's worth.

Completely fair to bring those two up, though the circumstances were different. Gallen's stock had risen dramatically over a matter of months and they wanted to capitalize on that, while the team's cheapness was largely responsible for shopping López (they were unwilling to extend him at anything close to his market rate). The cautionary tale who comes to mind for me is Brad Hand. He was at a very similar stage of his career. At least in Cabrera's case, they would be getting something in return (Hand departed as a waiver claim).

It's gotta be extremely frustrating for him to produce at an elite level yet still get overlooked. Last season, he focused on adding agility (which translated as a baserunner), so I figured that could help him in the corner OF spots as well and create another route to be called up, but the organization didn't give him any reps there to find out. To force his way onto the roster early in the season, he'll need to decisively outplay Mancini this spring to propel himself ahead on the depth chart (and convince Mancini to opt out of his contract to sign elsewhere). Assuming that doesn't happen, Troy just needs to stay patient.

Berti definitely has some trade value. I don't have a great feel for how much exactly. A decent chunk of his value is tied to his baserunning and that element of his game mostly went away during the 2nd half of last season. It's hard to bet on it fully coming back given his age. That may scare off some contenders from dealing significant prospects for him.

My expectations for him would be low, but it's still the appropriate way to go if the risk is so minimal. I'm grateful they didn't desperately trade for him last summer. Now, he'd be coming in with so much to prove and is hopefully motivated to re-establish himself.

There have been some bold challenge trades across the league, but nothing quite like this with both sides sacrificing guys with that combination of talent, youth and immediate MLB production. Too bold to ever come to fruition considering that it would be a fireable offense if you wind up with the inferior player.

The terms of the offer aren't yet known, but Anderson would be the team's first major league free agent signing of the 2023-24 offseason if they can agree on a deal. Even with Spring Training officially underway, the Miami Marlins continue to pursue new players. During a slow-moving offseason, they've moved the slowest of any MLB club, entering Friday as the only one of the 30 that hasn't signed a player to a major league free agent contract. As first reported by The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (and confirmed by the Miami Herald), the Marlins have offered a deal to free agent Tim Anderson, presumably to be their primary shortstop this season. The 30-year-old Anderson owns a career .282/.312/.422 slash line (98 wRC+) across his eight previous MLB seasons (all with the Chicago White Sox). The two-time All-Star produced 4.6 fWAR as recently as the 2021 season. However, TA has been awful since returning from a groin injury on June 20, 2022. In exactly 162 games since then, he has been sub-replacement level with a .246/.286/.295 slash line (61 wRC+). That led the White Sox to decline what had previously been viewed as a team-friendly $14M club option for the 2024 season. Safe to assume, whether the best offer comes from the Marlins or somebody else, he'll have to settle for a smaller guarantee than that. Rosenthal also reports that the Marlins remain engaged with Gio Urshela "about a role in which he mostly would play first base, third and DH." It is unclear if there is a scenario that involves signing both Anderson and Urshela. Barring injuries, I don't see the fit given all of the Marlins position players who are currently penciled into Opening Day roster spots. View full article

It is frustrating to think about how much more effective he would be with decent fastball command and the additional swing-and-miss potential his changeup would have if he slowed it down to create a wider contrast in velo.

Well GIVING Cabrera away would certainly be a mistake. If the Pirates are only willing to part with fringy utility types and rookie-ball lottery tickets but nothing in between, then that would be selling too low. I would expect some team to step up with a better offer if the Marlins were widely shopping him.

Marlins news roundup for 2/16/24 Here's what you should know with 41 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Fish On First will have boots on the ground for today's Marlins Spring Training workout. Follow Alex Carver and Noah Berger for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex. 🔹 The Marlins held their first workout for pitchers and catchers on Thursday. Check out this YouTube playlist of Spring Training interviews and press conferences! We will continue adding to it throughout the next month-plus. 🔹 Our Marlins injury/rehab tracker is back in business on a near-daily basis. Keep it bookmarked to stay informed on both major leaguers and minor leaguers. 🔹 Fish On First's Noah Berger reports that Huascar Brazoban hasn't made it to Jupiter yet due to visa issues. Brazoban was also delayed last Spring Training and couldn't report until March 1, though he still had enough of a runway to make himself available for the Opening Day roster. Non-roster invitees RHP Elvis Alvarado and C Jhonny Pereda are behind schedule for the same reason. 🔹 Elsewhere around baseball, Rob Manfred announced that this will be his final term as MLB commissioner. It's a five-year term that recently began, so he'll stick around for five more seasons until January 2029, but at least the end is in sight. MLB franchise values have risen substantially under Manfred's oversight as have player salaries, and he's been aggressive with implementing rule changes to "modernize" the game. However, the sport's overall popularity is gradually declining, especially among younger fans. 🔹 On Fish Unfiltered, Kevin Barral, Isaac Azout and I discussed the Edward Cabrera trade rumors and other prominent storylines from camp. 🔹 Deviating from the rest of the industry, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs ranked Max Meyer (No. 56 overall) ahead of Noble Meyer (No. 78) on their updated Top 100 prospects list. 🔹 Ethan Budowsky of Just Baseball writes about the Marlins missing out on a huge opportunity this offseason. 🔹 Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers wants fans to fill out a series of 10 polls regarding the Marlins' offseason and expectations for 2024. Marlins Podcast Episodes View full article

Marlins news roundup for 2/15/24 Here's what you should know with 42 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... It's time for the first full pitchers and catchers workout of Marlins Spring Training! Follow Kevin Barral and Alex Krutchik for live updates from the Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium complex. 🔹 All of the recently DFA'd Marlins players have now found new homes, with Peyton Burdick going to the Orioles on Wednesday in exchange for cash considerations. Burdick's inability to make contact will likely preclude him from finding sustained major league success, but I still think the Marlins pulled the plug on him too soon given his power, athleticism and baseball instincts. 🔹 An article draft by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was accidentally published overnight saying that the Marlins had agreed to trade Edward Cabrera to the Pirates for UTIL Ji Hwan Bae, RHP Braxton Ashcraft and RHP Jun-Seok Shim. Mackey clarified that he had prewritten it in anticipation of a possible trade and that there's no agreement in place yet. Even so, this misfire suggests the negotiations are still active. 🔹 From Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald: infielders Amed Rosario and Gio Urshela have drawn the most interest from the Marlins among the players still available at their positions. In Jesús Luzardo trade talks with Baltimore, the Marlins wanted catching prospect Samuel Basallo, but "Baltimore wasn’t willing to include him in any deal." Mish and Jackson confirms that the Marlins "never got close to a deal" with Jorge Soler, though they did speak with him in the weeks prior to him signing with the Giants. They also report a brief discussion took place with the Royals last season (while Kim Ng was still GM) that would swapped burgeoning young stars Eury Pérez and Bobby Witt Jr. 🔹 The Marlins won their arbitration case against Luis Arraez. He'll earn a $10.6M salary this season instead of the $12M he was seeking. 🔹 Congrats to OF Victor Mesa Jr. on earning his United States citizenship. He spoke with Kevin Barral this morning about learning from his more experienced teammates this spring. 🔹 On the latest episode of Fish On First LIVE, Marlins radio announcer Kyle Sielaff expressed confidence in the Marlins' new direction and wrapped up the show with some amusing dating advice (in the spirit of Valentine's Day). FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks! If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔹 Keith Law of The Athletic ranked his top 20 Marlins prospects. Law is particularly high on 1B Brock Vradenburg (No. 7), INF Yoffry Solano (No. 11) and RHP Nigel Belgrave (No. 19). When initially published, Law ranked INF Erick Lara ninth on the list...the same Erick Lara who was traded to the Rays three months ago. Lara was removed only after I commented on the article about the error. 🔹 Three major storylines that Christina De Nicola of MLB.com will be following this spring: previously injured players being ready to contribute, the playing time split at shortstop and catcher, and what impact the new-look front office will have on camp. 🔹 Louis Addeo-Weiss analyzed six pitch types used by individual Marlins pitchers that we should be monitoring closely in 2024. 🔹 Isaac Azout has created the ultimate guide to Marlins Spring Training! It'll be updated and expanded annually to provide fans with all the pertinent info they need to make the most out of their visit to Jupiter. View full article

The Marlins don't have much leverage, unfortunately. Everybody knows that they were shopping Cabrera last year. Took a step back with his control and now he's out of options, so it is a make-or-break season for him. I'd rather take a chance on a prospect deeper down in the Pirates system with more upside rather than the fringy role players that this Pirates writer mentions.

According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates are "actively" discussing potential trades, with the Pirates focused on acquiring immediate starting rotation help. Mackey singles out Edward Cabrera as the arm that the Marlins would be most willing to move and whose combination of upside and club control would appeal to the Pirates. Last season, Cabrera established new career bests in innings pitched (99 ⅔), FIP (4.43) and strikeout rate (27.2%). However, his control issues were as bad as ever. He led the Marlins with 66 walks allowed despite appearing in only 22 MLB games and he was demoted to Triple-A in August even when the team was thin on rotation alternatives. The Dominican right-hander also missed part of the season with a shoulder impingement. He turns 26 in April and has no minor league options remaining. Mackey believes that one of the Pirates' infielders, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae, would "likely" go to Miami as the headliner of the return package. Of that trio, Peguero has the most big league shortstop experience. They each could be optioned to the minors if there isn't a fit on the Opening Day active roster. Personally, I'm skeptical of Cabrera's future as a starter and would be amenable to trading him now if the return is appropriate (with Pittsburgh including another asset on top of Peguero/Gonzalez/Bae). Mackey writes that the Pirates are also seriously considering free agent starters, so they could pivot in that direction if unable to compromise with the Marlins. View full rumor