Marlins Opening Day roundtable: Fish On First staff analysis, predictions for the 2025 season

A year ago, the Fish On First staff overestimated the Miami Marlins. Have we swung too much the other way entering 2025?

Well, we're about to find out.

Thanks to Ely Sussman, Louis Addeo-Weiss, Isaac Azout, Kevin Barral, Alex Krutchik, Sean McCormack, Daniel Rodriguez and Hector Rodriguez for participating in the following Opening Day roundtable.

1. What would you do with Sandy Alcantara: trade him this season for the best prospect package or hold onto him and re-evaluate things next year?

Ely: When your team is deep in a rebuild and you have an accomplished pitcher with premium stuff, you don't f*** around. Alcantara's trade value is doubtful to ever get higher than it will be this summer. The previous Marlins front office had the foresight to extend him before his career year. Another extension that covers the remainder of his prime years would be too inefficient for this frugal ownership group, unfortunately. Any path that leads to the Marlins fielding consistently great rosters involves having young, elite position players in place. Trading Alcantara gives them one more bite at acquiring somebody with that upside.

Hector Rodriguez: Depending on how well he pitches this season. He’s pitching like a top pitcher in the league, you move him immediately and get a haul of prospects.

Louis Addeo-Weiss: This really depends on how he’s pitching come the deadline. Even if he’s 70-80% of who he was pre-surgery, the affordability of his contract still makes him incredibly valuable to a team with playoff aspirations.

Sean McCormack: Trade Sandy for prospects.

Isaac S. Azout: Under different circumstances, it would be incomprehensible to consider trading a starting pitcher of Alcantara's caliber who also happens to be on such a team-friendly deal. There are few pitchers in the world as dependable as he is. That said, given the following: Miami team is at least two-three seasons away from contending, Alcantara has three years left of club control, and ownership has not shown the willingness to spend in free agency to expedite the building process, it would not make sense to hold onto him and re-evaluate things next year. Assuming Sandy pitches somewhere in between his 2022 and 2023 self, he will be one of the most valuable trade assets in recent memory. The return Bendix can get for Alcantara could be enough to catapult Miami's farm system from middle-of-the-pack to at the very least, top eight. In addition, all the injuries to starting pitchers across the league make him even that more valuable. It pains me to say it, but they have to trade him as soon as he shows any glimpse of his healthy self during the regular season. It won't be the popular move, but it'll be the correct move.

Kevin Barral: Personally, I would hold onto him. With what is going on with the grievance, it makes the most sense to hold on to him and let this season play out. If he has a big season and potentially wins comeback player of the year, the market will be wanting someone like Alcantara and then you can trade him. The only downside with keeping him is that a package that may be available at the trade deadline may not be there in the offseason.

Daniel Rodriguez: Trade him for a package that includes prospects from the Boston Red Sox's "Big 3."

Alex Krutchik: Hold on for next year. Sandy is a guy you build around: consistent pitcher with a Cy Young ceiling that can get you 200+ innings per year. Who would you trade him for? A guy that might turn into a great player like…Sandy? It also doesn’t hurt that the farm system, while not great, is already worlds better than it was last year. So you don’t absolutely need an overhaul.

2. Which Marlins offseason acquisition are you most excited to watch this year?

Ely: It's a tie between Starlyn Caba and Andrew Salas. We will get to watch Caba much more often considering he'll be playing full-season ball and a longer schedule. I look forward to his shortstop defense and swing decisions. Salas has the potential to be the best hitter acquired by the Marlins via international free agency in more than a decade. Low bar to clear, but intriguing nonetheless. 

Hector: Not many options, but Cal Quantrill. If he pitches like he did in his couple of seasons in Cleveland, Miami could move him at the deadline and gets some quality prospects.

Sean: Echedry Vargas.

Isaac: Miami's shortstop of the future, Starlyn Caba. The switch-hitting Caba has the chance to be one of the safer position player prospects Miami has had in a while and I am very intrigued to see what steps the bat takes this season. I'm also excited to watch the 80-grade defense up close over the course of a full minor league season.

Kevin: On the big league side, I'm looking forward to watching Matt Mervis in an everyday role. I know his spring ended on a sour note, but let's see what he's able to do in the regular season on an everyday basis. I would be crazy to not mention Starlyn Caba on the prospect side. Acquired in the Jesús Luzardo trade, having him about an hour and 30 minutes away from Miami will be perfect to get some in person looks and just see how his bat develops.

Daniel: Starlyn Caba.

Alex: Liam Hicks. It’s been a while since the Marlins had a catcher who could hit. According to previous scouting reports, he’s not great defensively, but I saw otherwise in spring. He’s not elite, but certainly a guy that I trust behind the dish. And in speaking with a couple of pitchers, they liked throwing to him.

3. Any players returning from the 2024 Marlins who you believe will be significantly improved in 2025?

Ely: Even before 2024 ended, I was cautiously optimistic about an upcoming Max Meyer breakout. Performance during the first season back from Tommy John surgery can be very misleading. He enters this season with an improved fastball and expanded array of secondary pitches. If he figures out how to fit those puzzle pieces together, he's capable of turning into a legitimate No. 3 starter.

Hector: Even though he’s currently injured, I’m a believer in Ryan Weathers. I think he could be a frontline starter in Miami’s rotation for years to come.

Sean: Ryan Weathers.

Isaac: Otto Lopez is going to have a much-improved offensive season for Miami. This is someone who has hit .300 over his seven minor league seasons and won't go through the type of slumps he did last year.

Kevin: Although Xavier Edwards was awesome in 2024, it was in a limited sample size. He's someone who I am looking forward to watching in 2025 for a full season and see if the defense has truly improved. He's also someone who can contend for the NL batting title.

Daniel: Max Meyer (will lead team in innings pitched) and Jonah Bride (will lead team in home runs).

Alex: It’s just spring training, but Griffin Conine having a 26% strikeout rate is intriguing. If he can be merely below average in that department—rather than downright terrible—he can put up some big numbers this year.

4. Predict the Marlins' win-loss record and most valuable player

Ely: 66-96 and Sandy Alcantara.

Hector: 60-102 and Xavier Edwards.

Louis: 60-102 and Connor Norby.

Sean: 67-95 and Otto Lopez.

Isaac: I predict they finish 62-100 for the third time in franchise history. Their most valuable player will be Xavier Edwards.

Kevin: 68-94. I think that the pitching will keep the Marlins afloat enough to avoid an 100-loss season and with certain prospects who are close to reaching The Show, the team will be young and hungry to win some games. MVP Xavier Edwards.

Daniel: 59-103 and Xavier Edwards.

Alex: 65-97 and Xavier Edwards.

5a. Your American League award picks (AL MVP, AL Cy Young, AL Rookie of the Year & AL Manager of the Year)

Ely: MVP Bo Bichette. Cy Young Garrett Crochet. ROY Cam Smith. Manager John Schneider.

Hector: MVP Bobby Witt Jr. Cy Young Logan Gilbert. ROY Jackson Jobe. Manager Alex Cora.

Louis: MVP Bobby Witt Jr. Cy Young Jacob deGrom. ROY Jackson Jobe. Manager Dan Wilson.

Sean: MVP Corey Seager. Cy Young Garrett Crochet. ROY Jacob Wilson. Manager Joe Espada.

Isaac: MVP Bobby Witt Jr. Cy Young Tarik Skubal. ROY Kristian Campbell. Manager Aaron Boone.

Kevin: MVP Bobby Witt Jr. Cy Young Tarik Skubal. ROY Kristian Campbell. Manager Mark Kotsay.

Daniel: MVP Bobby Witt Jr. Cy Young Cole Ragans. ROY Jacob Wilson. Manager Mark Kotsay.

5b. Your National League award picks (NL MVP, NL Cy Young, NL Rookie of the Year & NL Manager of the Year)

Ely: MVP Elly De La Cruz. Cy Young Paul Skenes. ROY Drake Baldwin. Manager Torey Lovullo.

Hector: MVP Shohei Ohtani. Cy Young Zack Wheeler. ROY Matt Shaw. Manager Torey Lovullo.

Louis: MVP Shohei Ohtani. Cy Young Zack Wheeler. ROY Dylan Crews. Manager Craig Counsell.

Sean: MVP Shohei Ohtani. Cy Young Paul Skenes. ROY Bubba Chandler. Manager Rob Thompson.

Isaac: MVP Fernando Tatis Jr. Cy Young Paul Skenes. ROY Dylan Crews. Manager Dave Martinez.

Kevin: MVP Shohei Ohtani. Cy Young Paul Skenes. ROY Roki Sasaki. Manager Dave Martinez.

Daniel: MVP Shohei Ohtani. Cy Young Paul Skenes. ROY Roki Sasaki. Manager Terry Francona.

5c. Your World Series matchup & WS winner

Ely: Philadelphia Phillies over the Baltimore Orioles.

Hector: Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Boston Red Sox.

Louis: Dodgers-Rangers. Dodgers win.

Sean: Phillies vs. Rangers. Phillies win in 6.

Isaac: Los Angeles Dodgers defeat the New York Yankees in a 2024 repeat.

Kevin: Dodgers vs. Red Sox and the winner will be the Dodgers.

Daniel: Dodgers vs. Royals. Dodgers in 6.

Alex: Dodgers vs. Yankees.