With Luis Arraez traded, let's find out what Vidal Bruján is made of

The sudden departure of Luis Arraez stings. He is such a unique player, not to mention the heart and soul of the Miami Marlins. During his first six months on the job, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix refused to say the quiet part out loud about the franchise's trajectory. But actions speak louder than words: the Marlins are punting on the present to accumulate long-term assets.

It is unlikely that any of the Marlins' internal options can serve as a satisfactory replacement for Arraez. That's why they play the games, though. When Vidal Bruján has gotten opportunities this season, his production has been eerily Arraez-esque:

• Luis Arraez's MLB career: 123 wRC+, 7.5 K%, 27.3 HardHit%
• Vidal Bruján's 2024 season: 128 wRC+, 7.5 K%, 25.6 HardHit%

Fittingly, in the immediate aftermath of the Arraez trade news, Bruján accounted for three of Miami's seven hits against the Oakland Athletics on Friday and drove in the club's lone run.

One of Bendix's first maneuvers as Marlins POBO was to buy low on Bruján, a former MLB Top 100 prospect whose offensive futility and inconsistent defense from 2021-2023 left him without a role in Tampa Bay moving forward. Per FanGraphs, he had contributed at least half a win below replacement level during each of those three seasons and exhausted his minor league options in the process.

The first few weeks of Bruján's campaign looked like a continuation of his Rays tenure. He went hitless through 14 Marlins games (only played in eight of them). He was the last man on Skip Schumaker's bench, seemingly with nothing to offer aside from positional versatility and decent wheels on the bases. Once fellow speedy switch-hitter Xavier Edwards recovered from his foot infection, Bruján was destined to be designated for assignment...right?

Well, narratives change rapidly in small sample sizes. Bruján has been on fire since April 26. That has taken him from liability to bright spot.

As was the case during his previous MLB stints, Bruján is devoid of power with only one barreled ball so far in 2024, per Baseball Savant. To make himself a valuable hitter, he needs to constantly put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts. Bruján is doing that by ambushing pitchers early in the count, seeing only 3.32 pitches per plate appearance (the MLB average is 3.90). His swing decisions have also improved, offering at a career-high 79.4% of in-zone pitches and dropping his chase rate to a career-low 30.4%. That is crucial because it's not like he has magically acquired Arraez's contact skills—he is still whiffing on one of every five swings.

Bruján's approach is quite different from Arraez's. Bruján is swinging at 54.9% of first-pitch strikes, nearly doubled the league average; throughout his career, Arraez has been passive on the first pitch, including a 20.9% swing rate this season.

It's not yet clear what Bruján will be as a baserunner. This past offseason, he led the Dominican Winter League with 23 stolen bases, but he just picked up his first pair of Marlins steals on Friday. His 27.1 ft/sec Sprint Speed is barely above Arraez's (26.5 ft/sec) and way down from where Bruján used to be (28.8 ft/sec in 2021 and 28.5 ft/sec in 2022). Bizarre, troubling trend for a 26-year-old.

Overall, there is a 50-point gap between Bruján's actual weighted on-base average (.352 wOBA) and his expected mark based on batted ball data (.302 xwOBA). Regression is inevitable.

Arraez is an absurd comp for Bruján, in case that was not obvious already. Back in November, I likened Bruján to longtime utilityman Leury García instead and stand by that. He's somebody who you can feel okay with giving stretches of consistent playing time to when necessary, but ideally, he'll back up superior players.

Even with infielder Jake Burger nearing his return from the injured list, this is the Bruján's window to legitimize himself. Ample playing time should be available at second base and third base (on days when Burger is at 1B/DH). His emergence as a viable major leaguer would ever-so-slightly soften the blow of losing Arraez.