How season-ending injury affects Jesús Luzardo's future with Marlins

As relayed to Fish On First by the Miami Marlins on Monday, left-hander Jesús Luzardo remains a long way away from returning to full strength. Sidelined by a lumbar stress reaction since mid-June, Luzardo hasn't even begun a throwing progression yet. He'll rest for at least six more weeks before doing so. Thus far, his rehab has only consisted of bike workouts and forearm and shoulder strengthening.

Do the math. The MLB regular season is over in less than eight weeks. Luzardo could be playing catch entering the final two, but restarting a progression from scratch, it's a multi-week process before being cleared to face live batters of any kind.

Luzardo will not pitch for the Marlins again in 2024. He logged 66 ⅔ innings across 12 starts, falling short of his career averages in ERA (5.00) and FIP (4.26). His 21.2 K% and 37.0 GB% were both new single-season lows as was his average fastball velocity. The Fish had a 4-8 record with him on the mound.

Rumor had it that, if healthy, the Marlins front office was going to shop Luzardo aggressively leading up to the trade deadline. Considering what Trevor Rogers fetched with the same amount of club control remaining—and far lower upside—the offers would have been tempting.

Come November when the offseason fully commences and Luzardo should be throwing off a mound at full intensity, will trade negotiations resume? Although Peter Bendix is famously "always having conversations," I have a hard time seeing them leading anywhere.

Unfortunately for Luzardo, his prolonged injury absence will cost him millions of dollars. Last year, by making every scheduled start and eating 178 ⅔ innings at a very high quality, he earned a $3.05M raise via arbitration, from $2.45M to $5.5M. This time around, his case looks a lot like 2023 Nestor Cortes, who settled with the New York Yankees at a $750k raise. That would put Luzardo's salary at $6.25M for the 2025 season.

That suppressed cost is a boon to Luzardo's trade value. However, it also alleviates some of the pressure on the Marlins to move him now.

With Luzardo off the table, Bendix was busy flipping productive veterans who were either in the midst of their arb years or about to enter them. Rogers, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, JT Chargois and Bryan De La Cruz, all of whom would've been in line for significant pay bumps next season, are out of the picture. That leaves the Marlins' books in pristine condition. In 2025, Sandy Alcantara is owed $17.3M and Avisaíl García will collect $12M, but after Luzardo's estimated $6.25M, no other Marlin comes close. The only other player on a fully guaranteed deal is Woo-Suk Go ($2.25M).

The upcoming MLB free agent class is shaping up to be pretty deep when it comes to left-handed starters (Max Fried, Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, José Quintana, Clayton Kershaw, James Paxton, etc.). If enough of them finish 2024 healthy, there might not be a team eager to trade let's say 150% of the Trevor Rogers package for Luzardo. Having only two years of club control left narrows Luzardo's market to genuine contenders.

It would be very unorthodox, but would Luzardo and the Marlins mutually agree to have him participate in the 2024-25 winter ball season, making a few starts in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic or elsewhere to verify that he's back to 100%? Mending from an arm injury, no way; with this being back-related, perhaps there'd be less anxiety.

Taking everything into consideration, I expect the Marlins to hold onto Luzardo for the first half of 2025. He can restore much of his former value if he reverts to his No. 2 starter form. While expectations for next season's Fish ought to be low, those aforementioned trade deadline maneuvers filled the upper levels of the farm system with quality prospects. If several of them makes smooth transitions to the majors, it's within the realm of possibility that they're competitive from the get-go and prefer to utilize Luzardo as a pitcher than a trade asset. Shipping him away before Opening Day would dash that dream.