Jake Burger's multimillion-dollar question: What will MLB's Super Two cut-off be?

It's been 13 months since the Miami Marlins acquired Jake Burger. Overall, he has been exactly as advertised.

In 154 games as a member of the Chicago White Sox, Burger smashed 34 home runs with a 113 wRC+. In 163 games with the Fish entering Thursday, he's gone deep 34 more times with a 117 wRC+.

There are some obvious deficiencies. Burger chases too many pitches outside the strike zone. He has shown himself to be a defensive liability at third base and not much better at first base. Despite being a faster sprinter than you'd suspect, he provides no value as a baserunner.

All aspects of the game considered, he's more or less an average MLB regular. Meanwhile, the young pitcher they gave up in return, left-hander Jake Eder, has an ERA north of 7.00 with White Sox minor league affiliates. The trade has unquestionably been a big win for the Marlins.

It's almost time for Burger to begin cashing in on his production. Injuries slowed down his ascent to the majors, so as a 28-year-old this season, he is earning only a smidge above the MLB minimum salary.

Will Burger's first substantial raise come in 2025 or 2026? That depends on what the "Super Two" service time cut-off is this offseason. Based on recent precedent, he is a true borderline candidate to gain arbitration eligibility. A couple days of service could determine whether or not he collects a couple million dollars.

As explained by MLB Trade Rumors, most players who aren’t on a guaranteed contract and have between three and six years of MLB service qualify for arbitration. Additionally, the top 22% of players in service time with between two and three years qualify early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).

Last offseason, the cut-off was two years and 118 days (often formatted as 2.118). The year before, it was 2.128. Throughout the last decade, it has ranged from 2.115 to 2.134. Burger will finish 2024 at 2.127.

If Burger falls short, his salary will barely budge, remaining in the high six figures (the league minimum in 2025 will be $760k). However, if eligible for arbitration, he can negotiate for much more based on what comparable players earned through the arb process.

I estimate that an arb-eligible Burger would make between $3M and $3.5M next season. The offensive production from his platform year of 2024 has been similar to what Hunter Renfroe did in 2019 and what Josh Naylor did in 2022. The following year, they were awarded salaries of $3.3M and $3.35M, respectively.

When viewing the following tables, keep in mind that Burger still has a full month left to play this season to improve his numbers. I've taken that into account.

Platform year comparison

Career comparison from debut through platform year

Neither is a perfect comp—Naylor had already gone through arbitration once before and Renfroe is a corner outfielder whereas Burger is a corner infielder. Feel free to share other potential comps in the comments.

If Burger becomes a Super Two player, he will have four years of arbitration eligibility (2025-2028). Otherwise, he gets three bites at the apple before free agency (2026-2028).

Age and money are always going to be key considerations when it comes to Marlins roster construction. Therefore, Burger entering Arb 1 this offseason could mean his Miami tenure is winding down. I'm not advocating for that to happen, but simply reading the tea leaves. Between red-hot rookie Connor Norby, second-half revelation Jonah Bride and power-hitting prospects Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustín Ramírez, the organization is brimming with cheap right-handed hitters who can play the same positions as Burger.

Regardless of how Burger's situation plays out, the Marlins are poised to have ample payroll flexibility in 2025. Before factoring in their arbitration class, the only guaranteed contracts on the books belong to Sandy Alcantara ($17.3M), Avisaíl García ($12M) and Woo-Suk Go ($2.25M). There is no urgency to dump any of their players out of financial distress. Peter Bendix ought to be a lot more active and creative than he was during his first offseason in the POBO chair.