From 18th-round pick to legitimate Marlins prospect

[Nathaniel Klaff]

It's not common for a high school player to sign in the 18th round, and it's even less common for an 18th-round pick to put up the kind of numbers that turn heads throughout an organization.

The Marlins drafted Nate Payne 544th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Central Dauphin High School in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. They signed him for $235,000, convincing him to forgo his commitment to George Mason University. In just two years, Payne has gone from a lottery ticket to a legitimate candidate to become a quality major leaguer.

Payne spent the majority of the 2025 season in the Florida Complex League before finishing the year with Jupiter. Between both levels, he pitched to a 3.20 ERA across 56 ⅓ innings while striking out 73 batters. Opponents hit just .176 against him. He did just about everything the Marlins could have hoped for except limit the walks, issuing 37 free passes, which equated to a 5.91 BB/9. He was also an extreme fly-ball pitcher, posting a GO/AO ratio of just 0.41.

According to Prospect Savant, which tracked only 16 ⅔ of his Hammerheads innings, Payne generated a 37.7 Whiff% while allowing an average exit velocity of just 83.5 mph. In those innings, he surrendered only six hits (five singles and one home run) while striking out 27% of the batters he faced. The strikeout-to-walk ratio (18 K/14 BB) further showed that the electric stuff was there even if the command still needed refinement.

Fast forward to 2026, and Payne opened the year in Jupiter before earning a promotion to Beloit after just three starts. The strikeouts are up, the walks are down, he's generating more ground balls, and he's throwing more strikes. Between both levels this season, Payne has made 17 starts, throwing 83 innings (4.88 innings per start) with a 3.69 ERA and 113 strikeouts, good for an outstanding 12.25 K/9.

Nate Payne matches his career high in strikeouts with 11 in his fourth career start at High-A.

The 20-year-old has thrown a quality start tonight: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 11/1 K/BB, 90/63 P/S.#Marlins pic.twitter.com/gc84MwxJEL

— Fish On First Prospects (@FOFProspects) May 23, 2026

Perhaps the biggest sign of development is the improved command. Payne has already thrown nearly 25 more innings than he did all of last season while walking eight fewer batters. His BB/9 has dropped from 5.91 to 3.14. His GO/AO ratio has also improved from 0.41 to 0.68, and he has induced 29 ground-ball double-play opportunities compared to just 17 all of last season.

The trade-off has been the amount of hard contact he's allowed. Payne has surrendered 14 home runs along with 12 doubles and two triples. His .379 BABIP suggests he has been hit around at times and has likely been on the wrong side of some bad luck as well. At the same time, his strike percentage has jumped by nearly 10 percentage points from last season. In many ways, 2026 has been a year of sacrificing some contact quality for significantly better command and efficiency.

Nate Payne's journey so far is what baseball is all about. He gave up his college commitment to chase his dream of playing professional baseball, despite the long odds that come with being an 18th-round pick out of high school. At just 20 years old, Payne has already shown flashes of becoming a quality major league pitcher.

The last player taken at least 544 picks into the amateur draft who reached the majors was college right-hander Duncan Davitt (pick No. 554 in 2022). No Marlin has done it since 2019 draftees Jeff Lindgren and Josh Simpson, back when the draft was comprised of 40 rounds instead of 20. They also came from the college ranks.

No matter what happens from here, both Payne and the Marlins have already exceeded expectations. For a player selected 544th overall, the pick looks better and better with each passing start.

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