Why Max Meyer is finally breaking out

[Louis Addeo-Weiss]

Max Meyer entered the 2026 season with a chip on his shoulder, and then some. 

A former third overall draft pick in 2020, Meyer's career to that point had largely been one of unrealized expectations and disappointment. Among a sample of 479 pitchers to throw at least 125 innings from 2022 through 2025, Meyer's 82 ERA+ kept company with the likes of Kyle Gibson and Meyer's recently released former teammate, Chris Paddack.

So, as the 2026 season dawned, it was time for Meyer to put up or shut up and accept a long-term role as a reliever. Ten starts into the season, Meyer is doing the former, posting a 2.85 ERA and averaging north of 10 K/9.

But what's the reason for the Max Meyer breakout?

One good place to start is Meyer's pitch mix, more specifically, the redistribution of his arsenal.

In his first extended period at the Major League level in 2024, Meyer was essentially a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his four-seam fastball and slider a combined 80.2 percent of the time. This predictability explains why Meyer's early career was riddled with inconsistency.

Come 2025, Meyer ramped up the usage of his sweeper (+11.4 percent) and sinker (+11.8 percent), throwing his lead fastball just north of 22 percent of the time. The results, while still underwhelming a la a 4.73 ERA, marked an improvement over the 5.68 he posted the previous calendar year. 

Sensing a trend here?

By diversifying his arsenal, Meyer has gradually become far less predictable to big-league hitters, with the 2026 Max Meyer model the best example to date.

Meyer is throwing his slider and sweeper 28.5 and 24.6 percent of the time, respectively, while his four-seam fastball usage has held steady year-over-year at 23 percent.

The theoretical modus operandi for Meyer here: lean into your strengths, and Meyer's strengths are his ability to spin the baseball.

Through 10 starts, the 27-year-old's breaking ball duo ranks in the 98th percentile in run value, per Savant. Collectively, the league is 22 for 114 (.192) against said offerings against Meyer, with his slider garnering whiffs in nearly half of the swings against (44.5 percent).

The year-over-year changes in Meyer's sweeper, though, may be the most startling. 

Among pitchers to throw at least 100 sweepers in 2025, Meyer's .368 opponent's batting average against ranked seventh-worst among 170 qualifiers. Fast forward to 2026, and Meyer's .217 average against said offering is now 36th best, with Meyer being one of just 11 pitchers with at least 25 plate appearances this season to fan at least 40 percent of hitters ending on a sweeper. Below, you'll see Meyer inducing one of those strikeouts while facing another 2026 breakout player, St. Louis' Jordan Walker.

The continued backing off of his four-seamer—a pitch that scouts were skeptical of while Meyer was still a prospect— has too yielded better output against. There have been decreases of 126 points in batting average and 225 points in slugging percentage against from 2025. Because of this, Meyer's four-seamer has graded out as an above-average pitch (plus-1 run value) for the first time in his big league career.  

And while the version of Meyer we have seen thus far is the best yet, he is not completely out of the woods of speculation. While we noted Meyer as sporting a sub-3.00 ERA to this point, his xERA (Expected Earned Run Average) of 4.08 suggests there may be luck at play via exit velocity and launch angle. That being said, the 90.1 mph average exit velocity against Meyer is his best in any of the three seasons where he's made at least 10 starts. Batter launch angle, however, currently sits at a career-high 13.7 degrees, as does his 35 LA-Sweet Spot % (Launch Angle-Sweet Spot), while also allowing soft contact at the lowest clip of his career (2.1%).

At the very least, it's fair to say that Meyer has shown himself worthy of a spot in a big league starting rotation. That alone constitutes a win for the organization given what the dreary outlook for him was mere months ago.

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