Revisiting Marlins' most important trade of the decade, two years later

[Nate Karzmer]

Outside of the teams that won World Series championships in 1997 and 2003, the 2023 edition of the Miami Marlins was perhaps the most adored in franchise history. Following consecutive seasons of 90-plus losses in 2021 and 2022, '23 was a breath of fresh air. Those fiery, resilient Fish blended both veterans and young stars with formidable pitching and hitting to clinch just Miami's third-ever playoff berth in a full season.

You cannot tell the story of that team without a certain 5-foot-10 second baseman with fewer than forty career homers. Luis Arraez was the 2023 Marlins. 

Acquired from the Minnesota Twins a little less than a month away from spring training, "La Regadera" etched himself in team lore while simultaneously becoming a fan favorite. He achieved the first cycle in franchise history...in just his twelfth game. He proceeded to flirt with a .400 average deep into the season and set a franchise single-season record with his final .354 mark. Arraez was an All-Star, Silver Slugger and top-10 finisher in National League MVP balloting, the leader and face of a scrappy lineup that had Miami in the spotlight like they haven't been in years, with what seemed to be a promising future.

On the heels of that prosperous season, Marlins ownership opted for a bold shake-up. General manager Kim Ng was out, replaced by new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. There were wholesale changes to front office personnel, but Bendix largely kept the club's major league roster intact—the most notable departures were letting Jorge Soler and his 36 homers walk in free agency and flipping super utility man Jon Berti on the eve of Opening Day. Given the dire state of Miami's farm system, a rebuild seemingly loomed, but not imminently.

To reference Murphy's Law, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. On May 3, just 33 games into their 2024 campaign, the Marlins entered their cross-country trip to Oakland sitting at 9-24, set up by a brutal season-opening 0-9 skid. But hey, maybe this core could do the impossible again. Jesús Sánchez said it himself not even 24 hours ago following his walk-off that "Miami was back" and there were signs of stabilization with a 6-4 record in their last ten.

Then, just like that, it was all over. Minutes before first pitch from the Coliseum, news broke that Arraez was headed to San Diego in exchange for a quartet of minor league talent.

The reported blockbuster was met with shock and outrage, not just from Marlins faithful, but from all corners of the baseball world. Bendix had gutted the soul from his organization barely one month into his first regular season in Miami. He confirmed in the subsequent media session that this was waving the white flag on 2024, saying "we are unlikely to make the playoffs this year."

Many more moves followed and the Marlins endured 100 losses that year. At the time of this article, two players that Bendix inherited from the 26-man postseason roster remain on the major league squad.

Although the Marlins are not yet perennial contenders like Bendix aspires to be, their outlook is considerably brighter than it was two years ago. We now have the necessary context to evaluate the Arraez deal more fairly.

 

---

It's fair to start with the man himself, whom after collecting another batting title in 2024 with San Diego, saw his name and what he brings to the table get more criticized amongst the general baseball population. The "one-tool player" label gained serious wheels following Arraez's first season as a Padre and a 2025 campaign that featured a league-lead in hits with 181, but an OPS of .719.

Despite hitting free agency in the theoretical prime of his career (entering his age-29 season), Arraez lingered on the market until February. He ultimately moved north in to the division rival San Francisco Giants on a modest one-year, $12 million deal that literally any MLB team could've afforded (yes, even the frugal Fish).

His first quarter of a season in the Bay has been mostly a continuation of his Padres tenure offensively—tons of singles and fewer strikeouts than any other qualified hitter. Interestingly, his defense has graded out brilliantly. Arraez still plays his role and does it better than anybody...except for one guy. We'll get to him later.

The package sent to Miami included OF Jakob Marsee, RHP Woo-Suk Go, 1B Nathan Martorella and OF Dillon Head, with the final being considered the headliner. Thus far, Miami gets a 1.5/4.

Go was the least desirable at the time of the swap and his stock only lowered since joining the Marlins organization. The Korean right-hander struggled as a low-leverage reliever in the minors and was cut 13 months after being acquired without ever tasting the majors.

Martorella's hit tool had been a question mark when he came over and it's looking as questionable as ever now. He is OPS'ing .520 with a .135 average in Triple-A Jacksonville, a step down from an already discouraging .630 OPS a year ago. 

I'm giving Miami a generous half point for Dillon Head, the 70-grade speedster who was just 19 at the time of the deal. Head has been absolutely hampered by injuries ever since, including a season-ending hip injury a little over a month after joining the organization and has appeared in a limited nine games in 2026 after nursing a hand injury. It is entirely too early to write Head off, but this season in High-A will play a huge role when evaluating his future with the club.

Finally-and most notably-Jakob Marsee, who was the first of the four to receive a call-up and did not miss his opportunity. The Dearborn, MI native went scorched earth in his debut month in the bigs, being honored with NL Rookie of the Month for August after posting a sensational .352/.430/.629 with eighteen extra-base hits and above-average defense.

It's been a mixed bag since, most notably the start to Marsee's sophomore season—he currently holds a 67 wRC+ (league average is 100). What we do understand is that Bendix and the Marlins front office has supreme confidence in their potential franchise center fielder to figure things out, and there's reason to believe. Marsee boasts incredible plate discipline, still possessing an OBP over .307 with an average of .182.

If you choose to view the trade simply based off the four players Miami received in return, it appears Bendix still won his first blockbuster, but not by a landslide. However, the true value of the deal can be seen when analyzing the other guy I was referring to earlier.

Xavier Edwards, who had no way of finding consistent playing time with Arraez and Tim Anderson up the middle in 2024, was called up shortly after the departure of his predecessor. Instantly, the former first-round pick proved Bendix was right to deal Arraez in favor of his former Rays farmhand.

While Edwards and Arraez both have elite hit tools, the former's value extends far beyond. An elite runner despite not swiping as many bags as one would expect, Edwards can take extra bases and keep balls in the infield at second base. In addition, since transitioning to the position full-time just halfway into 2025, Edwards proved to be elite, even being named a Gold Glove finalist. Perhaps most important to Bendix and Co., the switch-hitting Edwards is three years younger than Arraez and doesn't hit free agency until 2030.

Edwards' production and future value chalks this trade up as a win for Miami already. Couple that with a potential franchise center fielder and an uber-athletic 21-year-old that simply needs to stay healthy? While Bendix took plenty of heat for getting rid of the fan favorite, he was just setting the tone for what was to come.

View full article

[Robert Hanson]

   Xavier got his chance when the Marlins DFAd T.A., allowing X to play ss. 
   The beneficiary, on the Marlins roster, of the Arraez trade was Otto Lopez, who became the Marlins starting 2nd baseman (and eventually, ss.). What would have happened with Otto, if not for the Arraez trade, is unclear. The Marlins won the trade simply by clearing a path for Otto. And acquiring Marsee was icing on the cake, despite finishing 1-26 last season & struggling this season. 
    The fact that the Marlins covered Arraez’s salary, post trade, was the stunner. This was no salary dump.