Has Max Meyer reached his ceiling as a starting pitcher?

[Kevin Barral]

MIAMI, FL — When the Miami Marlins selected Max Meyer with the third pick of the 2020 MLB Draft, they envisioned a frontline starter who would be up with some of the best pitchers in franchise history. Fast-forward to 2026 and he's fallen short of that due to a variety of reasons, including injuries and a flawed pitch arsenal surrounding his signature slider.

On Thursday, in the Marlins' 8-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds, Meyer took the mound. In five innings of work, he allowed one run on four hits, three walks and four strikeouts. The lone run he surrendered was a solo homer from Sal Stewart in the top of the fifth inning.

“We saw some fastballs today in the mid-90s with really good carry," Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said. "I think he’s throwing it better than he has in the past. You pair that with the breaking stuff, the slider around 90 and the sweeper, and it makes him tough. I thought he did a really good job navigating some traffic early and was able to get out of it...As he settled in through the second, third, and fourth innings, he was able to get ahead more consistently, which allowed him to expand the zone and get some swings-and-misses down.”

Against the Reds, Meyer's slider was his most-used pitch at 32%, generating seven whiffs and two of his four strikeouts. The four-seam fastball, his second-most-used pitch of the afternoon, landed four out of five times for a first-pitch strike. His lone strikeout victim on that pitch was Elly De La Cruz.

In 2025, the sweeper was thrown 11.5% of the time and the sinker 13.7% of the time, his two least-used pitches. Early on, the sweeper has been thrown 20.6% of the time, his third most thrown pitch, but his sinker (8.8%), is his least thrown pitch.

High pitch counts for Meyer have limited how deep he can go into his starts. He has entered the seventh inning of a game three times in his career, but never completed the inning. On Thursday, he was averaging 17.4 pitches per inning.

"I just have to execute some of my two strike pitches a little bit better," Meyer said. "That leads to three more balls, and that's where I'm getting my walks because I'm not able to have a competitive 0-2 pitch. I have to clean that up, and I think those walks will go down and I'll be able to go a little bit deeper into the games."

In two-strike counts, Meyer struck out four, hitters went 2-for-10, but that includes the Stewart home run. For his career, hitters have a .643 OPS against him in two-strike counts. 

This was not a bad version of Meyer by no means, but it continues a trend of him being relatively inefficient. He has yet to complete six innings this season. Even when he's limiting the damage, the inability to work deep into games limits his overall value to the Marlins.

The Marlins wasted no time getting things going. In the bottom of the first inning, Xavier Edwards hit a triple, followed by a fielders choice from Agustín Ramírez, allowing Edwards to score.

Owen Caissie, who the Marlins are primarily using against right-handed pitching, smacked a 102.6 mph two-run RBI double, making it a 3-0 game. Javier Sanoja drove in the team's fourth and fifth runs. For both, this marked their second three-hit game of the season.

In the top of the sixth inning, with Spencer Steer up, Griffin Conine tried to dive for what ended up being a double, but wasn't able to make the catch and on top of that, hurt his left knee, being taken out of the game. Following the game, McCullough informed the media that Conine suffered left hamstring discomfort.

A source tells Fish On First that the Marlins are calling up Deyvison De Los Santos. This will mark his second stint in the big leagues. In his lone start in MLB, De Los Santos went 1-for-2 with a double. In Triple-A Jacksonville, he was slashing .259/.355/.630/.985 with three home runs and eight RBI. Expect a longer stay at the big league level this time around for Fish On First's No. 28 prospect.

 

With the win, the Marlins improve to 8-5 as they now hit the road for a weekend three-game series against the Detroit Tigers and then a three-game series against the division rival Atlanta Braves. First pitch on Friday is at 6:40 pm with Chris Paddack taking the mound.

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[2qbn]

Holy s**t! I am so hyped. Finally what I have been b!tch!ng about. We are going to have DeLos, Owen, and Conine all on the big league roster. Inject this into my veins! A placebo, of course. :P

 

Regarding Max, I always thought he would end up a beast closer. I'm not sure now that it would work out, but are we judging him as a #3 starter? Wasn't he #3 last year before injury? I think if he was 4th or 5th starter it might look different, but where he was drafted clouds the judgement and outlook on him being that kind of starter. 

[One Regend]

Is it too early to call Max Meyer a bust? It probably is, but parts of 5 years and only having 28 games and 142 innings, and having a FIP at 5.13 with a 0.3 fWAR is incredibly underwhelming results for a guy who was drafted 3rd overall, and doesn't particularly inspire confidence about his future.

Maybe the COVID pandemic absolutely screwed with the drafting process. But, I don't know. The baseball executive geniuses who chose Max Meyer as 3rd overall are the same guys that drafted JJ Bleday, Khalil Watson, Jacob Berry, and Noble Meyer with their first round selection... and well, let's just say those haven't panned out. (It's a little early on Noble Meyer but the early returns are not looking good right now.)

[Hippyboi]

Noble is already out with an injury.

5 bad first round picks in a row - and high picks at that. Eeh!

Law of averages says Berry or Meyer will make it this year - haha

[One Regend]

5 hours ago, Hippyboi said:

Noble is already out with an injury.

5 bad first round picks in a row - and high picks at that. Eeh!

Law of averages says Berry or Meyer will make it this year - haha

I have more faith in Max Meyer putting it together than Jacob Berry.

And that's saying a lot because Max Meyer isn't impressing me.