How far off is Agustín Ramírez in NL Rookie of the Year race?

[Alex Krutchik]

It’s been a long time since the Marlins last had a rookie bat make as instant of an impact as Agustín Ramírez. 

Especially in a year like this when other National League teams aren't relying much on first-year players, Ramírez sticks out. Lauded for his slugging ability when the Marlins acquired him from the New York Yankees at the trade deadline last year, the 23-year-old catcher already has 17 home runs in 87 games with Miami, which leads all NL rookies. He's also first in hits (84), runs scored (48) and runs batted in (50). His .464 slugging percentage is second-best, right behind teammate Heriberto Hernández.

So what’s holding him back from being the clear-cut favorite to win the award? There are a few other candidates with more balanced player profiles, albeit in smaller sample sizes.

Drake Baldwin, catcher for the Atlanta Braves, currently has the best odds to win NL ROY on most sportsbooks. He’s also the easiest player to compare to Ramírez given their positions. The 23-year-old Brave is second among NL rookies in RBI (41) and home runs (11), trailing only Ramírez in both categories. He also has a whopping 60-point advantage in on-base percentage (.348 to .288).

Baldwin does all of this without being a liability at his position. His blocks above average (2), caught stealing above average (-1), and pop time (1.96 seconds) are all pedestrian. But when held up against Ramírez—minus-16 blocks above average, minus-5 caught stealing above average and 2.01 seconds of pop time—he looks like Yadier Molina in comparison.

When Statcast rolls all of these components into a ball, it estimates that Ramírez has produced a negative-7 run value at his position, while Baldwin is steady at zero. Ramírez’s defense is a huge reason why his bWAR is 0.1 despite his great offensive production. Following the departure of Nick Fortes last week, Ramírez's workload behind the plate is expected to increase, so hopefully those added reps will make him more proficient.

Isaac Collins, left fielder for the Milwaukee Brewers, is another one who can impact this race. He doesn’t slug and he’s not as flashy as Ramírez and his violently powerful swing, but his 131 wRC+ is highest among NL rookies. This is thanks in large part to his 12.9% walk rate, which is more than double that of Ramírez’s, along with a .281 batting average.

Collins is among the best in the field, too. He leads all major league left fielders with eight outs above average.

The preseason favorites in this race, Roki Sasaki and Dylan Crews, faded from contention long ago due to injuries. Dominant Milwaukee pitcher Jacob Misiorowski briefly emerged as a sexy pick, but he was just placed on the 15-day IL himself with a left tibia contusion. In seven MLB starts, he has put up a 2.70 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and a 36.4% strikeout rate in 33 ⅓ innings. Even in a best-case scenario, there would only be enough time left to double that sample size, an innings total which would pale in comparison to any other starting pitcher who has received Rookie of the Year honors in either league.

So can Ramírez overcome his paltry defense to win the award? It’s happened before. Look at former Florida Marlin Chris Coghlan, who won NL ROY in 2009. He leveraged his .321 batting average and 122 OPS+ despite recording negative-19 defensive runs saved in left field. Wins above replacement wasn’t really at the forefront at that time, but for whatever it’s worth, Coghlan’s 1.1 bWAR was an entire win better than what Ramírez has put up so far.

With slight improvement down the stretch on both sides of the ball, Ramírez still has a path to victory.

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