Alcantara continues flirting with wrong side of history entering All-Star break

[Louis Addeo-Weiss]

The image that adorns the header of this recap, although unremarkable to those unaware, is that of a man now a stranger on a surface he once dominated. 

For Sandy Alcantara, 2025 has already been an eventful year—a return from a Tommy John surgery that cost him 2024, the birth of a daughter, and having to drown out the barrage of trade rumors. Despite it all, the competitor in Alcantara would tell you he was fully capable of picking up right where he left off.

After starting the season with an ERA well north of eight through 11 starts, Alcantara reeled off a four-start run in June where he appeared to be regaining the form that made him an "ace" in the first place.

Alas, the nightmare narrative returned, with earned run totals of seven and five in his next two starts. It continued as such on Wednesday when the former Cy Young Award winner allowed six runs in five innings of work in the Marlins' 7-2 loss to the Reds.

Falling to 4-9 on the season, Alcantara's 7.22 ERA is the worst among 76 MLB pitchers to throw at least 90 innings this season. It is also the worst such mark of any pitcher in franchise history with a season of at least 90 innings pitched.

Alcantara's night got off to a less-than-ideal start with a three-run, 31-pitch first inning.

Upon briefly settling in, retiring seven of the next eight hitters, a leadoff walk to Tyler Stephenson in the bottom of the fourth would quickly come back to bite him. Noelvi Marte sent a sweeping curveball 421-feet into the left field stands of Great American Ball Park to increase the Cincinnati lead to five. 

"The results aren't matching the work he's putting in, and that's the frustrating part," noted manager Clayton McCullough. 

Appearing dejected in an exchange with McCullough following his final inning, Alcantara's dour mood carried over into the postgame conference. Expressing discontent with his location, he generated just eight whiffs on 52 swings by Reds hitters (15%). 

 

"I need to take time and rest, think about what I was doing bad, and keep competing every fifth day," said Alcantara. The veteran right-hander will have at least eight days of rest before toeing the rubber again post-All-Star break.

 

Marlins Mojo Thwarted

Entering the evening winners of seven of their last 10, including taking the first two games in Cincinnati by a 17-3 margin, the Marlins loss Wednesday snapped an 11-game road winning streak. The Reds, who improved to a game over .500 at 47-46, snapped a four-game losing streak. 

Now, some three weeks away from the trade deadline, the Marlins (43-49) sport a minus-62 run differential. Of teams with such a total through their first 91 games, only one—the 2017 Twins (-65)—managed to make the playoffs. Miami entered the day with a 1.0% percent chance to make the playoffs, per Baseball-Reference. 

Other than Alcantara's latest wart of an outing, the Marlins offense had to deal with Andrew Abbott. A first-time All-Star this season, Abbott quieted Miami to the tune of one run over 7 ⅔ innings.

Only Paul Skenes (1.96) has a lower ERA among qualified NL starting pitchers than Abbott's 2.07. Prior to his start on Wednesday, Abbott owned an 11.88 ERA in two prior starts against Miami, allowing 11 runs in just 8 ⅓ innings of work.

Though too little, too late, Miami would break through against Abbott in the eighth a la a Heriberto Hernandez RBI single. Connor Norby's second home run of the month plated Miami's final run in the ninth.

 

Looking Ahead

The Marlins will look to resume their winning ways in Thursday's series and season finale versus Cincinnati. Cal Quantrill (3-7, 5.40 ERA) will start for Miami, owner of a career 5.50 ERA in five games against the Reds.

Opposing Quantrill, Nick Lodolo (5-6, 3.58 ERA) will make his fifth career start versus Miami, pitching to a 2.82 ERA in his previous four.

First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 5:10 EST.

 

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[Miami Italiano]

Something just isn't right with Sandy. Cut bait at the trade deadline with the best package they can get. With his shaky outings, there will definitely be low ball offers.

[Leo Armbrister]

The Marlins should consider putting Sandy on the injured list and work on several things. He has to get better at holding base runners. He also needs to work on his command of the strike zone. To many of his balls are not close to the strike zone and his strikes are in the middle of the zone and very hittable. He should have a few rehab assignments. His velocity is good which is positive. I think he can turn it around. To trade him right now would be a mistake and hurt the franchise. His value is down and he is healthy. his mechanical problems can be fixed.

[Hans Herrera]

I don't think it is a good idea to trade him at his lowest value. Keep working on the mental part and the pitching analytics, hoping for better results in the second half.

Even more, if the team finishes the year on a high note (say, around 72-75 wins), I say they should keep him for next year. They would probably get better return by trading Weathers or even Meyer.