Why it's so easy for teams to steal bases against the Marlins

[Ely Sussman]

Through the first month-plus of the 2025 season, Miami's opponents have been testing their batteries twice per game and succeeding on nearly 90% of stolen base attempts.

The Miami Marlins played one of their most fascinating games of the season on Monday. Fascinating, but not fulfilling because they ultimately fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers on a 10th-inning walk-off. Understandably overshadowed by higher-leverage moments, Shohei Ohtani's steal of second base way back in the first inning likely made the difference between winning and losing.

Ohtani took off in a 1-2 count on an Edward Cabrera breaking ball. An amazing throw would have been required of Agustín Ramírez and he wasn't up to the task (well below-average pop time of 2.06 seconds). If not for the steal, Ohtani would've been stuck at first on Mookie Betts' flyout. Instead, he easily tagged up and advanced to third. That allowed him to score easily on Freddie Freeman's subsequent single and give the Dodgers an early 1-0 lead.

Cabrera's pitching performance was mediocre in this outing against a deep Dodgers lineup. The Marlins would have been playing from behind for much of the game regardless. However, if they had done enough to deter Ohtani from stealing in that situation so that he gets left on base and the rest of the game's events were unchanged, it would've been a 5-4 Miami victory in nine innings.

The Marlins are currently on pace for 95 losses despite seemingly playing at a higher level than that. Their lack of control of the running game is consistently coming back to bite them in close contests.

The Marlins defense leads Major League Baseball by a wide margin with 53 stolen bases allowed. The majority of other MLB teams haven't even allowed half as many!

This is very much a collective issue. Five different Miami pitchers have been victimized at least six times in 2025, led by Sandy Alcantara with 11; no other MLB team has more than two such pitchers. Each of the catchers that the Fish have used—Ramírez, Liam Hicks, Nick Fortes Rob Brantly—have been behind the plate for at least nine steals and each of them individually owns a caught stealing rate that is worse than league average.

Opponents have been able to exploit the Marlins' weakness so often because they are getting more stolen base opportunities against them than any other team, according to Baseball Savant. The blame for that falls squarely on the pitching staff and their inability to throw strikes. They are handing out the most combined walks and hit by pitches in the league (averaging five per game).

Once runners get on, they can attack Miami's pitchers with confidence. Beyond being slow to the plate, this group has not picked off anybody this season (the Athletics are the only other team without a successful pickoff). That's why you see Marlins opponents gaining an average of 4.1 feet from the start of the pitcher's delivery to when the ball is released. Cabrera and Alcantara (both 5.7 feet) yield more ground than any other MLB starters.

It is inherently easier for left-handed pitchers to hold runners at first because they can monitor them while working out of the stretch, whereas righties are facing the opposite direction. That is where the Marlins' roster composition comes into play. Anthony Veneziano has been the only southpaw with a steady job on their active roster. Including mop-up appearances by Cade Gibson and Patrick Monteverde, 18 of the club's innings have been pitched by left-handers, the third-lowest total in MLB.

One of the six caught stealings for the Marlins was a gift. Tyrone Taylor bolted for second base prematurely and Valente Bellozo stepped off and threw with barely enough time to record the out. Two of the others were attempts to steal third, which is a higher degree of difficulty for the runner because the catcher has a shorter throw to make. That leaves just three examples of Miami batteries executing a classic caught stealing at 2B (final example required a managerial challenge to overturn):

 

 

 

Recent MLB rule changes that limited pitcher disengagements from the rubber and enlarged the bases were meant to incentivize base-stealing. Even so, that has resulted in only one team surpassing 200 SB attempts allowed (2023 Chicago White Sox, 205 attempts). The Marlins have given up a staggering 59 attempts through 29 games played, putting them on pace for 330 attempts allowed.

 

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A key reinforcement is on the way. Lefty Ryan Weathers, who suffered a flexor muscle strain in spring training, has allowed only nine stolen bases during parts of four major league seasons. He tied for second among MLB pitchers with six pickoffs in 2023.

Weathers is expected to make his next rehab start in the coming days, then one additional start after that to build up his pitch count. He's on track to rejoin the Marlins rotation during the week of May 12.

Adam Mazur could potentially provide a boost, too. Since Mazur was acquired by the Marlins last summer, there's been just one steal attempt off of him in 63 innings pitched at Triple-A. 

On the other end of the spectrum, there is Eury Pérez (projected to come off the IL in June). The long-limbed right-hander was very susceptible to stolen bases during his otherwise excellent rookie campaign in 2023. Perhaps Pérez used his Tommy John surgery hiatus to make some strides in that department, although we've seen that was not the case with Alcantara.

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[Johnny Depth]

Great article.

I was starting to think the new rules are just making the run game explode all around but there's clearly a huge issue with the Marlins.

Brutal to watch knowing any walk or hit is potentially and probably a triple if anyone has speed.

[One Regend]

It doesn't help when your "best" catcher has a poptime of 2.06. That catcher is Agustin Ramirez. And calling him a "catcher" is generous. He's destined to move to 1B.

Rob Brantly and Nick Fortes are both backup catchers at best. Joe Mack is a better defensive catcher than all 3, and even he won't stop the bleeding if the Marlins pitching continues to not give a flying dung about holding baserunners. It honestly feels like Sandy and Edward Cabrera don't even try.

You want an example of a right-handed pitcher who does a good job at holding runners? Look no further than an ex-rival, Seth Lugo, currently now with the Royals. He's an example that you don't need to be left-handed in order to police the running game. There's multiple examples of this too. Jose Berrios, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Webb also pace the running game leaderboards, and there are at least a dozen of others who are net positive in extra base prevention.

TL;DR: This problem won't end until the Marlins pitching staff makes an actual conscious effort to stop the running game. You could have a tandem of Prime Pudge Rodriguez and Prime Johnny Bench behind the dish and not much would change.