Which prospects Marlins should protect from 2024 Rule 5 Draft

[Kevin Barral]

Within the next week, the Miami Marlins have some decisions to make on Rule 5-eligible prospects, including a few they just acquired in trade deadline deals.

The annual MLB Rule 5 Draft is still nearly a month away, but this coming Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their rosters accordingly. It's especially important for the Miami Marlins who are focused on building up their farm system as much as possible and hold the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.

This is completely different from the amateur draft, to be clear. Rule 5-eligible players are those who either signed when they were 19 or older and have been in affiliated ball for four or more seasons, or signed when they were 18 or younger and have been in affiliated ball for five or more seasons. In order to protect such players from being taken in the major league phase of the draft, they have to be selected to the 40-man roster.

At the moment, the Marlins have 38 players on their 40-man, so there is not room to protect everybody. The following Marlins prospects are eligible this year, per Roster Resource:

 

The Marlins have a couple obvious prospects to select before the deadline. There are also a couple other candidates worth mentioning in case the club is willing to make corresponding moves to fit them on the 40-man.

 

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B

De Los Santos was in this position last year as well and the Arizona Diamondbacks left him unprotected for the Rule 5. The Cleveland Guardians took him, but he was returned to Arizona after struggling in spring training.

That was fortunate for the Diamondbacks because he had a lot of success with them in 2024. De Los Santos went on to win the minor league home run title, finishing the season with 40 home runs and 120 RBIs. The Marlins acquired DDLS along with Andrew Pintar in the A.J. Puk deal. He possesses as much power as any Marlins prospect.

In his stint with Triple-A Jacksonville, De Los Santos slashed .240/.284/.459/.744 with 12 home runs, 36 RBIs and an 85 wRC+. His strikeout rate rose to 28.4%. His current numbers through 14 winter ball games are decent (.302/.326/.372/.698 with five RBIs).

That being said, the 21-year-old is almost ready to be tested in the majors. The Marlins would definitely rather give him a shot to prove himself as their first baseman of the future than risk losing him for nothing.

 

Jared Serna, INF

Serna, 22, was acquired just a few days after De Los Santos. The Marlins got him, Agustín Ramírez and Abrahan Ramírez from the New York Yankees in exchange for Jazz Chisholm Jr. 

Serna was promoted to the Double-A level and immediately produced, slashing .266/.343/.390/.732 with two home runs and 23 RBIs. He was promoted to AAA for the final week of the season.

What stood out was Serna's hit tool. He also may have the athleticism to stick at the shortstop position long term.

Because Serna has such limited experience at the upper minor league levels, it's possible that he could pass through the Rule 5 without being picked. However, all it takes is one team to do what the Washington Nationals did with Nasim Nuñez last year and hide him on their bench during a rebuilding season. The Marlins should play it safe with Serna.

 

Dax Fulton, LHP

Fulton hasn't thrown a pitch in a live game since May 2023. He underwent Tommy John surgery and should be ready for spring training. Prior to the injury, he was looking like one of Miami's best pitching prospects with a combination of swing-and-miss stuff and above-average control.

Outside of De Los Santos and Serna, Fulton would seem to have the best chance of being protected, depending on whether the Marlins feel the quality of his stuff is back to what it used to be earlier in his career.

 

Zach McCambley, RHP

This is a longshot. McCambley was Rule 5-eligible last year and did not get selected. In 2024, he had issues with walks (18.4 BB%) and his season was shortened by injury again.

There is still belief in McCambley's potential as a reliever. His curveball can be unhittable at times.

Relievers are the most common Rule 5 picks, so it shouldn't come as a shock if McCambley or one of the other arms listed at the top of the article gets taken to fill a low-leverage role with a new team.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Well done.

[One Regend]

The Marlins have been dealing with a major lack of development with their farm system as of late, and the large number of "too-old-to-be-a-prospect" players proves this in spades:
-Troy Johnston (27.4)
-M.D. Johnson (27.4)
-Tyler Eckberg (27.2)
-Patrick Monteverde (27.1)
-Bennett Hostetler (27.1)
-Paul McIntosh (27.0)
-Zach Zubia (27.0)
-Adam Laskey (26.7)

I'll be surprised if any of these players remain in their system in 2025. If they do, maybe it might be time to cut bait here, and bring some fresh prospects in to replace them. Outside of Troy Johnston, none of these players really did anything to force the Marlins hand.