Connor Norby cannot resist the first pitch

[Ely Sussman]

Norby has been more aggressive in 0-0 counts than any other MLB hitter this season.

Of the many young players that the Miami Marlins acquired earlier this season in exchange for big league veterans, Connor Norby arrived with arguably the highest expectations. Through his first three weeks in the Marlins lineup, he's blown past those expectations.

Norby entered Sunday with a .319/.365/.594 slash line (162 wRC+) in 17 games since being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville. He has combined incredible consistency with surprising power—only the great Hanley Ramírez had as many extra-base hits through his first 17 Marlins games as Norby does. He has not only solidified himself as an everyday player entering 2025, but somebody who belongs near the top of a major league batting order.

Eventually, though, I expect MLB opponents to exploit Norby's unorthodox plate approach.

Norby has been aggressive as a rookie. With Miami and Baltimore combined, he has drawn only five walks, a 4.7 BB% that would rank in the bottom 10th percentile of major leaguers if he had enough playing time to qualify. Four of those five walks came at Coors Field against the lousy Colorado Rockies pitching staff. He is being served more pitches in the strike zone than an average hitter would see, but that will likely change once the league recognizes how easily they can lure him to chase outside the zone.

Plenty of neophytes lack discipline during their initial taste of The Show. What makes Norby unique is his eagerness to swing on the very first pitch he sees.

 

Norby has accrued 106 plate appearances in the majors so far. He has swung at the first pitch 63 times. That's a 59.4% first-pitch swinging rate.

Only 18 of those 63 first-pitch swings (28.6%) have actually been put in play. In all the other instances, the result has been falling behind in the count 0-1 and facing an uphill battle from there.

This approach isn't necessarily good or bad, but it is extreme. Across Major League Baseball, nobody with as much playing time as Norby comes anywhere close to him. Seattle Mariners outfielder Víctor Robles ranks second at 53.6%; he has enjoyed a very productive campaign...after being cut by his previous team, the Washington Nationals, earlier in 2024.

Per Baseball-Reference, only nine total hitters this season (min. 100 PA) have swung at the majority of first pitches thrown to them:

Highest First-Pitch Swinging Percentage, 2024

The most flattering comp would be Corey Seager. The Texas Rangers star shortstop is on a borderline Hall of Fame trajectory while consistently hacking at first pitches. This is the fourth consecutive season he's been above 50% in that category. However, his single-season peak is only 53.3% (set in 2021).

If Norby maintains this, it will be the highest first-pitch swinging rate by any MLB hitter in a season of 100-plus plate appearances since Delmon Young in 2006 (64.1%). Like Norby, Young was a highly regarded rookie getting late-season reps for a non-competitive team. His career represents a realistic worst-case scenario for Norby. Young's lack of patience at the plate and below-average defense negated his run production—he totaled -1.4 fWAR across parts of 10 seasons despite a .283 batting average and 109 homers.

With three weeks left in the regular season, I'll be curious to see whether Norby reigns in his first-pitch aggressiveness and how that may impact his overall stats. Looking ahead to 2025, I'm already wondering about the influence new coaches could have on him in the event that Skip Schumaker and his staff aren't brought back.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

It's easy to appreciate a guy that comes to the plate prepared and ready to rock. What a sparkplug Norby has been. Moreover, he epitomizes the hungry, young team Bendix is building. Marlins fans, may I suggest we move just a bit toward optimism. A losing regular season is just that. Most important is we have a damn plan and someone willing to take the obligatory heat to implement it.