He has the lowest ERA in the Marlins bullpen. Will anybody trade for him?

[Ely Sussman]

JT Chargois has been getting outs since returning from injury last month, but can he be trusted to sustain this?

Why are MLB contenders lining up to bid on Tanner Scott at the upcoming trade deadline? He's a hard-throwing veteran who has been putting up zeroes in 2024. Nearing the end of his club-controlled years, Scott can presumably be obtained without sacrificing any highly coveted prospects.

JT Chargois fits that description too. Rehab from a spring training neck injury cost the right-hander more than two months of the regular season. In his limited Miami Marlins reps this year, would you believe that Chargois' ERA (1.23) is lower than the 1.30 mark belonging to the great Scott?! While Scott is a pending free agent, Chargois actually has arbitration eligibility in 2025, and his current salary is a measly $1.285M.

If there was any lingering doubt about Chargois' physical fitness, his fastball velocity averaged 95.4 mph on Saturday against the Mets. That was his second-highest average velo of the season and within a tick of the 33-year-old's career norm.

Unfortunately for the Fish, that's where the similarities between Scott and Chargois end. The latter is a prime example of why small-sample earned run averages for relievers can be highly misleading. Teams competent enough to win the majority of their games are unlikely to be duped.

A quick perusal of Chargois' 2024 game logs speaks volumes about how Miami views him internally.

First off, Chargois has not made any appearances on back-to-back days. He only did so while rehabbing at the minor league level (June 5-6 with Triple-A Jacksonville). Since Chargois was reinstated from the IL, the Marlins bullpen has thrown the fourth-most innings in the majors. He would be assigned a larger share of them if there was a genuine trust in him to thrive.

On Saturday, Chargois contributed in a semi-important situation. With the aid of an athletic Nick Gordon catch, he kept the Marlins within one run of the Mets heading into the bottom of the ninth inning.

Even so, through 13 games, Chargois has never entered with a lead! Only once has he pitched in high leverage as defined by Baseball-Reference.

There is not any way to sugarcoat it: Chargois has been extremely lucky. His 1.23 ERA belies a 4.53 FIP, which is on pace to be the worst of his seven-year MLB career. That 3.30-run gap in the favorable direction trails only Spencer Bivens of the San Francisco Giants among MLB pitchers with 10-plus innings of work this season.

Chargois' performance when inheriting baserunners is not reflected in his ERA. He has permitted four of nine to score (44 IS%) after going 5-for-20 (25 IS%) last year.

The one constant for Chargois historically has been his ability to induce ground balls. His 52.9 GB% from 2016-2023 placed him in the 90th percentile (min. 100 IP). However, he's on the opposite end of the spectrum so far in 2024 with a 31.0 GB%. Much of that discrepancy seems linked to his lack of sinker command. Too many pitches intended for the bottom third of the strike zone are winding up middle-middle.

 

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If the Marlins find a taker for Chargois, don't expect anything more than a fringy, far-away prospect who falls short of cracking our Top 30 list. He's destined for August/September regression, and the bonus year of control is not particularly enticing considering that injuries have always prevented him from spending a full-length MLB season on an active roster.

Despite his uninspiring overall numbers in 2024 and similarly sketchy history of durability, look for A.J. Puk to fetch a more sizable haul.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I had him on my list of five players on the Miami active roster who will be traded because there is value/low risk at $1.3m and an arb year,

[Ely Sussman]

2 hours ago, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

I had him on my list of five players on the Miami active roster who will be traded because there is value/low risk at $1.3m and an arb year,

Getting something in return for him is better than standing pat. I just don't think other teams trying to win now see him as an upgrade over their internal options moving forward.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

20 hours ago, Ely Sussman said:

Getting something in return for him is better than standing pat. I just don't think other teams trying to win now see him as an upgrade over their internal options moving forward.

Yes. The playoffs slot races and series are now compacted into the last three months (maximum). Even with durability issues, he's had his IL stretch for the season.