5 teams that could be in the Jesús Luzardo sweepstakes

[Kevin Barral]

Any team trying to contend in 2024 could use Luzardo in their rotation. We'll focus on several potential landing spots that make the most sense for the Marlins left-hander.

As has been widely reported, including by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jesús Luzardo is going to be available at this year's trade deadline. There's no question that the 26-year-old Miami Marlins left-handed pitcher has widespread appeal—working full time as a starter, Luzardo has a 3.79 ERA since the start of the 2022 season and isn't a free agent until 2027. Last season, he ended up pitching a career high 178 ⅔ innings. Luzardo's current salary of $5.5M could fit with any team's payroll.

Here is a brief overview of five possible Luzardo trade partners, including why they would be motivated to make a deal and notable prospects that the Marlins might target in return.

 

San Diego Padres

These teams already linked up on a trade this season involving Luis Arraez, which showed how serious the Padres are about winning now. Their pitching staff ranks 11th in fWAR and 14th in ERA, but those numbers should go down as they lean more heavily on organizational depth pieces. Veteran starters Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish recently landed on the 15-day IL.

When trading both Arraez and Jon Berti, the Marlins went with very young players as the centerpiece of those packages. During Sunday's State of the Fish, Sports Grid's Craig Mish said that trend will likely continue. With top-rated catching prospect Ethan Salas highly unlikely to be available, Miami should be focused on 17-year-old switch-hitting outfielder Leodalis De Vries. He would immediately be the best hitting prospect in the Marlins organization.

Other names to keep an eye out for: catcher J.D. Gonzalez, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and utility man Graham Pauley.

 

Baltimore Orioles

Even while suffering key injuries, the Orioles still rank fourth in starting pitcher fWAR. The Marlins and Orioles reportedly were in conversations during the offseason, but after the Marlins' asking price was too high, the Orioles pivoted and acquired Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers. Although Burnes has performed exactly as hoped, he's an impending free agent. Baltimore's rotation depth has taken a hit since then with John Means and Tyler Wells both going down with season-ending injuries, so adding Luzardo makes a lot of sense.

Baltimore has a surplus of exciting prospects at Triple-A, led by outfielder Heston Kjerstad. With AAA-Norfolk, he's slashing .325/.406/.663/1.069 with 14 home runs and 50 RBIs, struggling during the very brief call-up to the Major Leagues he received earlier this season. The Orioles just don't have enough space for Kjerstad at the MLB level, though the Marlins obviously do.

Catcher Samuel Basallo would be the ideal target. This season in AA, Basallo is slashing .284/.333/.454/.787 with nine home runs, 29 RBIs and a 121 wRC+. Ordinarily, a prospect as special as him would not be on the table, though the Orioles are a unique case because they already have Adley Rutschman in place as their catcher of the future. The Marlins would have to add another piece on top of Luzardo to get Basallo. 

More potential names that could be discussed include Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and 18-year-old Thomas Sosa.

 

Houston Astros

The Astros may not look like regular buyers at six games below the .500 mark, but they aren't going to let their streak of seven straight deep postseason runs end without putting up a fight. Their need for rotation help is obvious with both Cristian Javier and José Urquidy having season-ending surgeries this week. However, with one of the worst farm systems in baseball, it will be hard for them to outbid the other teams mentioned in here. 

Joey Loperfido can play all three outfield spots. When called up by the Astros, he's been productive, slashing .333/.381/.436/817 with one home run, five RBIs and a 138 wRC+. At AAA, the Astros prospect is slashing .267/.365/.593/.957 with 13 home runs, 29 RBIs and a 125 wRC+.

The Marlins can also look lower into the lower levels of their system such as a 18-year-old shortstop Camilo Díaz who signed for $2.25M. In 2023, Díaz slashed .209/.374/.353/.727 with four home runs, 15 RBIs and a 103 wRC+ in the Dominican Summer League. This season in the FCL, his strikeout rate has made a concerning jump to 46.8%. Although he's currently listed as a shortstop, it seems as if third base will be his more likely long-term home.

Jacob Melton is the Astros number one prospect, according to MLB Pipeline (#71 on their Top 100 list). This season at AA, he's slashing .268/.328/.455/.784 with five home runs, 24 RBIs and a 114 wRC+.

 

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have been arguably the streakiest team in baseball this season. A 33-30 record would be enough to lead the American League Central in some years, but little by little, that division is becoming more competitive and they currently trail the Guardians and Royals. They may need help from outside the organization to repeat as AL Central champs.

Last time these teams struck a deal, they sent the 2022 American League batting champion Luis Arraez to the Marlins in exchange for Pablo López and two prospects. It would be fascinating to see them strike a deal for Luzardo, but not out of the realm of possibility.

In 2022, the Marlins missed out on their opportunity to draft shortstop Brooks Lee, who stands as the number two prospect in the Twins organization, according to MLB Pipeline. Two years later, he is almost major league ready after rehabbing from a back injury and would be the ideal everyday shortstop for the Marlins if traded.

Emmanuel Rodriguez still has some flaws, but has shown the potential to be a nice major leaguer. Strikeout percentages have been high, topping out at 36.6%, but he has lowered it to 27.5% in 2024 along with a slash line of .298/.479/.621/.1.100 with eight home runs, 20 RBIs and a 198 wRC+ in 167 plate appearances in AA.

Recently sent down to AAA, Edouard Julien would also make sense. The Marlins don't have a clear successor to Arraez as their long-term second baseman. Julien had a breakout rookie campaign slashing .263/.381/.459/.839 with 16 home runs, 37 RBIs and a 136 wRC+.

 

Cleveland Guardians

This season, the Guardians surprisingly find themselves at the top of the AL Central with first year manager Stephen Vogt. Early on, Cleveland lost Shane Bieber for the season, plus Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco have both struggled, so the need for a starting pitcher is there. Adding Luzardo would be a win-now move.

The top prospect in the Guardians system is Chase DeLauter who tore it up in the Arizona Fall League, but has gotten off to rough start at AA, slashing .194/.301/.290/592 with one home run and three RBIs. He's coming back from an injury, so he's only played 17 games.

One of the best prospects in Minor League Baseball before being promoted to the majors, first baseman Kyle Manzardo slashed .303/.375/.642/1.017 with nine home runs, 20 RBIs and a 148 wRC+ in AAA. It's unlikely they move Manzardo, but it would be worth a shot to ask from the Marlins' perspective.

The Guardians also have the young tandem of Jaison Chourio and Ralphy Velazquez progressing well at Low-A. Chourio is a Top 100 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and at 19 years old, there's a lot of projection and upside. Jaison is the brother of Jackson Chourio, so the bloodline is strong.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Solid analysis - all are eminently reasonable destinations. Pairing Luzardo with Arraez in San Diego, watching the Padres beat the Dodgers, and ultimately resulting in the Friars' first World Series title, would be baseball serendipity. What a wonderful two-fer that would be for baseball. But before I get so crazily ahead of myself, as long as there is a solid return, I have no issue with any of these teams. No Astros hatred here at all - solid admiration. Is this the year when the stars could align for the proverbial "trade deadline blockbuster" consisting of some combination of Luzardo, Scott, and Chisholm? Talk about restocking the farm system - boom!