Prospect review-fallers (Warning: depressing)

[Chad Turner]

We are 1/3 of the way through the minor league slate.  Here's my review of the prospects that will fall from their pre-season rankings by the mid-season update.  I am just a lifelong fan and statistician.  I've never seen any of these guys personally, and I mean no disrespect.  I hope all these players prove me wrong.  This is just an armchair view, but I have put a ton of time into this as it's my favorite hobby.  Spreadsheets are my thing.  I am reacting to this season's stats, but also taking their careers into account.  Age is also a big factor.  

Head, Marsee, Martorella, and Go - I need more data, but not the start we were looking for.  I'm still hopeful for Head, but Go suks already.  This trade made me want to puke, and I'm still dry heaving.  

Dax Fulton - He shouldn't fall far, but it's hard to keep him in the top ten when he hasn't log a stat and is only getting older.  His prior stats aren't dominant, but I'm hopeful he can come back even stronger.  He's got the frame and had the heat.   I just think he might be passed by some of these great young arms we have.  

Jacob Berry - Should he even be a prospect at this point?  He can't play D, and now can't even hit.  I would remove him entirely.  It's rare for a guy to turn it around from a point this low.  

Kemp Alderman - after posting a .602 OPS last year, he needed to show a strong performance out of the gate this year.  You can't do that from the IL.  There is still time for him to flash over the next month or two, but I wouldn't bet on it.  

Troy Johnston - Needing to prove the Marlins wrong for not protecting him in the R5 draft, he has been mediocre at best.  Turning 27 this month, he's now just another quad A guy in my eyes.  He is heating up though.  But I would remove him from my list.  

Brock Vradenburg - A 22 yr old 1B repeating A ball with a .519 OPS?  That shouldn't be on any top 30 list.  He's not as good as Torin Montgomery at this point, who isn't impressing that much in Beloit.    

Pat Monteverde - He's almost 27 and has low 90s heat.  I knew he would likely get rocked in the high minors.  Same with Luis Palacios. At least he's 3 years younger.  

John Cruz - We are getting the worst possible version of him.  Somebody wake him up.  Power? Gone.  Ks up.  Walks down.  Can't hit.  We got burned.  These DSL bats are a crap shoot.  1 out of every 100 makes it to the show, and rarely is it with the team that originally signed them.  They should be forced to sign 7 year deals instead of 4.    

Jose Gerardo - a K machine repeating rookie ball.  

Fabian Lopez - Small sample size but not hitting.  

Shane Sasaki - this 4th OF profile looks more like a 6th OF.  Hopefully he gets healthy and hot.  

I'll follow up with my risers tomorrow.  

 

[Ely Sussman]

I was low on Berry entering the season, but still couldn't have envisioned his season going this poorly. Just missed about 2 weeks with a minor injury. Whatever that was, I'll cut him some slack and assume it was contributing to his severe struggles.

Even if he gets back to being the player we saw at Double-A last season, he doesn't profile as anything more than a replacement level big leaguer.

[Chad Turner]

On 6/8/2024 at 11:34 AM, Ely Sussman said:

I was low on Berry entering the season, but still couldn't have envisioned his season going this poorly. Just missed about 2 weeks with a minor injury. Whatever that was, I'll cut him some slack and assume it was contributing to his severe struggles.

Even if he gets back to being the player we saw at Double-A last season, he doesn't profile as anything more than a replacement level big leaguer.

Looks like you may have been right!  Maybe it was an injury.