Memorial Day check-in on our 2024 bold Marlins predictions

[Ely Sussman]

With one-third of the 2024 season complete, how have our predictions aged?

On Episode #55 of Fish Unfiltered (recorded in March), Ely Sussman, Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral each shared five of their bold predictions for the upcoming Miami Marlins season. Memorial Day has historically been a popular checkpoint for a major league team's performance, and conveniently for the 2024 Marlins, it arrives exactly one-third of the way through their regular season schedule. So let's take this opportunity to revisit every prediction.

The predictions have been divided into four categories, placed in descending order of the likeliness that they come to fruition. The predictor's name is in parentheses.

 

Nailed it!

Luis Arraez does not lead the Marlins in hits (via Ely)—In his only full Marlins season, Arraez racked up 203 hits, comfortably leading his club and ranking third in Major League Baseball. This was a bet against him spending the full 2024 season in Miami and it has already paid off. Arraez had only 41 hits on May 3 when the Marlins reached an agreement to ship him to the San Diego Padres. Bryan De La Cruz currently leads the Fish with 54.

 

Trending in right direction

Ryan Weathers earns NL All-Star selection (via Kevin)—Weathers has been arguably the most valuable player on the Marlins. He has trimmed his ERA in half from a season ago while consistently working deep into his starts (six-plus innings pitched in each of his last five outings). The lefty's first career All-Star selection is absolutely in play if he makes all of his scheduled starts in June.

Victor Mesa Jr. plays 30 games for the Marlins (via Ely)—The 22-year-old Cuban outfielder has made a smooth transition to the Triple-A level, slashing .289/.358/.474 with eight home runs and four stolen bases in 42 games with Jacksonville. He's getting reps at all three outfield positions, though primarily center field. In the event of a Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade and/or continued sub-replacement-level performance from Jesús Sánchez, Mesa could get an extended MLB audition during the second half of the season.

Griffin Conine hits first career MLB home run (via Isaac)—Conine's Jumbo Shrimp production has been comparable to Mesa's, just with fewer hits, more walks and a lot more strikeouts. He won't be starting regularly for the Marlins if they call him up, but with his all-fields power, it might only take a handful of plate appearances to blast one over the fence.

 

Still worth monitoring

Braxton Garrett posts 4.66 ERA or higher (via Ely)—The 4.66 figure was chosen because it would signify a full-run increase from Garrett's 2023 season ERA. As of this writing, the crafty lefty has an ugly 5.30 ERA, but all of the underlying data suggests he is the same guy as before. Since returning from a season-opening injured list stint, Garrett is exhibiting pinpoint command of his deep pitch arsenal and inducing ground balls at a 63.5% rate.

Marlins rank top 10 in MLB in stolen bases (via Isaac)—The Marlins were on a decent stolen base pace initially. Since May 7, however, the rest of the league has left them in the dust. They rank dead last in MLB with only five steals during that span, and four of those five occurred in a single game! Overall, the Marlins are tied for 20th with 28 SB and all alone in 30th with a 66.7% success rate. 

Josh Bell gets 100 runs batted in (via Ely)—Bell is on pace for 81 ribbies. That'd be his highest total since 2021. Unfortunately, his century-mark pursuit is being hampered by a career-low slugging percentage.

 

Extreme longshots

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 35 home runs and 35 stolen bases (via Isaac)—This prediction hinged on Chisholm avoiding the injured list for a change. Although he's been able to do that so far, his current pace is merely 21 homers and 27 steals. In addition to remaining injury-free, he will have to be among the very best offensive players in baseball moving forward to get it done.

Five Marlins hit 20 home runs (via Isaac)—De La Cruz probably reaches 20. Likely Chisholm as well, barring a trade. Jake Burger and Bell are capable of it, but they're both lagging behind for now. There does not seem to be a viable fifth candidate.

Jesús Luzardo reaches 200 innings and 200 strikeouts (via Kevin)—Luzardo's elbow scare made this workload objective borderline unreachable. With 45 ⅔ innings pitched entering his next scheduled start on Tuesday, he would have to pitch every fifth game for the Marlins through season's end while averaging seven innings per appearance.

Tanner Scott records 50 saves (via Kevin)—Despite performing very well, Scott is 43 saves away from this target. It's doubtful that he will even get that many save opportunities the rest of the season.

Anthony Maldonado and Anthony Bender combine for over 12.5 saves (via Isaac)—Only one combined save for the Anthonys thus far and Maldonado isn't even on the Marlins active roster at the moment. There would need to be a sooner-than-expected Scott trade to put this in play.

Marlins sign Eury Pérez to contract extension (via Kevin)—Pérez would have been a logical extension candidate had he spent the 2024 season establishing himself as a quality MLB starter. Instead, he's been sidelined the entire time while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Hard to imagine either side rushing to reach a deal until the talented right-hander returns to the mound next year.

Marlins make the postseason again (via Kevin)—The Marlins' improved play recently is too little, too late. Their odds of a playoff berth are only 0.3%, per FanGraphs. 

A.J. Puk earns NL All-Star selection (via Ely)—Puk could be a perfect high-leverage reliever through the remainder of the first half of the season and it still would not be enough to compensate for how poorly he pitched as a starter and the time he missed on the IL.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

As fun as these obligatory predictions are, they are also precarious. I appreciate the work that goes into the prognostications, and the occasional gut call. Sticking one neck out isn't easy, since everyone loves to ridicule misses by experts. Reading futurists' failed predictions is everyone's favorite dose of smugness. I think the Marlins pushed Sixto Sanchez for the express purpose of messing with Mish! Seriously, though, lots of fun.