Fish On First staff predicts 2024 Marlins record, team MVP

[Fish On First Staff]

Opening Day prognostications from each of the people involved in FOF's Miami Marlins coverage.

Just in time for the start of the 2024 season, each Fish On First staffer was asked to predict what the Miami Marlins' win-loss record will be along with the team's most valuable player.

Let's cut straight to the chase, shall we? None of us foresee the Marlins improving upon their charmed 2023 campaign.

Ely Sussman: 74-88 record, team MVP Luis Arraez

Admittedly, there is a path for the Marlins to finish with 84-plus wins and return to the postseason. That outcome requires good health and the cooperation of the team's decision-makers. If Eury Pérez evades elbow surgery and spends the majority of 2024 in the starting rotation...if Avisaíl García is absent from the majority of Skip Schumaker's lineups...if Jazz Chisholm Jr. never lands on the injured list...if Tim Anderson's production vaguely resembles his career norms...if A.J. Puk's run prevention numbers hold steady in his expanded role...if they once again save their best work for clutch situations...if Peter Bendix resists the urge to make any more Jon Berti-like trades that flip productive veterans into far-away prospects...check all of those boxes and it'll be an unambiguously successful year at the major league level.

However, my median projection is a 10-win dip from the prior season. The Marlins are largely devoid of disciplined hitters and good fielders. Their full potential at the plate won't be realized if they're constantly punting on opportunities to walk or to even get into advantageous counts. Their full potential on the mound won't be realized if their arms are backed by a defense that lacks range and situational awareness. Luis Arraez is the ultimate floor-raiser, a steady presence both on and off the field. He'll be Miami's MVP regardless of whether wins above replacement corroborates that sentiment. But my chief concern is the competitiveness of the National League. The Fish are definitively better than the Colorado Rockies and the Washington Nationals...and that might be it. In 2023, they were the beneficiary of several baffling meltdowns by talented teams. In 2024, they are more likely to finish with the NL's third-worst record than among the league's top six again.

 

Ordered from most pessimistic to most optimistic, here's how the rest of the FOF staff envisions this Marlins season unfolding...

Louis Addeo-Weiss: 71-91 record, team MVP Luis Arraez

Alex Carver: 71-91 record, team MVP A.J. Puk

Daniel Rodriguez: 75-87 record, team MVP A.J. Puk

Kevin Barral: 76-86 record, team MVP Jazz Chisholm Jr. 

Mike Ferguson: 77-85 record, team MVP Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Alex Krutchik: 77-85 record, team MVP Jesús Luzardo

Isaac Azout: 78-84 record, team MVP A.J. Puk

Laura Georgia: 78-84 record, team MVP Jesús Luzardo

Hector Rodriguez: 78-84 record, team MVP Luis Arraez 

Danis Sosa: 79-83 record, team MVP Luis Arraez

John Turlington: 79-83 record, team MVP Luis Arraez

Nate Karzmer: 80-82 record, team MVP Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Nick Turok: 80-82 record, team MVP Jake Burger

Noah Berger: 84-78 record, team MVP Jake Burger

 

Average record prediction: 77-85

Most popular team MVP pick: Luis Arraez

View full article

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

The baseball gods are often counterintuitive, so I am extending my greetings to them in the hope lightning strikes twice in Miami. Without Alcantara and Soler, how could it be that the team has a better record? Pitching, I think pitching will truly improve. When Cabrera, Garrett, and Perez return, the Marlin pitching staff looks deep and talented. Since we cannot discuss 2023 without including the ubiquitous unicorn-esque one-run game record, I will grant a repeat would be an even greater unicorn event, but a scrappy team (including more steals) and better situational hitting might get the Marlins surprisingly close to it again. Obtaining more offensive juice from the shortstop and catching positions is absolutely necessary, as well as a little help from Garcia. If Garcia is jettisoned, there are silver linings in Myers, Edwards, and perhaps Johnston. These players bring in vibrancy and extra-base hits. Still, it's the pitching that stands out and will be top three in the league. Accordingly, acknowledging the challenges, I predict a two-game increase over last year, playoffs undetermined, but possible, and a nice start to the Bendix era. Go Fish (genuflect)!