Should the Marlins try to claim J.D. Davis off waivers?

[Ely Sussman]

The veteran corner infielder is available on the waiver wire and could add considerable value in a part-time role.

The Miami Marlins aren't quite done shopping for bats to bolster their 2024 offense. Although their interest level in newly waived San Francisco Giants infielder J.D. Davis is unknown, you better believe they are at least analyzing how he'd potentially fit.

Davis slashed .248/.325/.413 last season with a 104 wRC+, producing 2.2 fWAR in 144 games played at age 30. Throughout his career, his rate stats have been practically identical against right-handed and left-handed pitching. His batted ball profile has generally lended itself to a very high batting average on balls in play, though that wasn't the case following the All-Star break (.264 BABIP compared to his lifetime .337 BABIP).

In six Cactus League games with the Giants this spring, Davis slashed .400/.471/.800 with two home runs. He also registered an eye-popping exit velocity of 112.2 mph on a base hit (a number he's only touched twice in MLB regular season contests).

Defensive metrics had mixed interpretations on Davis' work as a third baseman in 2023. He accrued minus-11 defensive runs saved, which explains the major discrepancy between his fWAR and 0.9 bWAR. Meanwhile, he provided plus-4 run value there according to Statcast.

San Francisco's signings of free agents Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler made Davis expendable entering his final year of club control. He's due $6.9M in 2024—by placing him on waivers, the Giants are conceding he doesn't carry any surplus value at that price. They also appear to be gambling that some team will claim him and take full responsibility for Davis' salary, otherwise you figure they would've eaten a percentage of the money to facilitate a trade already.

If the Marlins were to claim Davis, he could find semi-regular at-bats at third base, first base and designated hitter. There is redundancy between his skill set and Jake Burger's, but they could co-exist to lengthen the lineup. In emergency situations, Davis could also play the corner outfield spots.

The hang-up here—the same one that applies to the club's pursuit of free agent J.D. Martinez—is determining which hitter currently projected to make the Opening Day roster is being replaced by Davis. Avisaíl García is the weakest link, but the Marlins are reluctant to swallow the $29M remaining on his contract. All of the other hitters in the mix have some kind of trade value and little else to prove in the minors.

I'm actually predicting Davis to clear waivers. We have seen somewhat comparable players like Garrett Cooper and Eddie Rosario sign minor league free agent deals that don't come close to reaching $6.9M even if performance bonuses are achieved. If that happens, the Giants would be on the hook for nearly 90% of his salary, with whoever signs him paying the league minimum of $740k.

Davis' market would be robust in free agency as a league-minimum player. Would he select the Marlins' offer over others that may come from teams with more hitter-friendly home ballparks and higher postseason odds? Although inefficient financially, claiming Davis off waivers takes that choice away from him.

To reiterate, it is a moot point unless the Marlins have a plan to trade/option/release one of their position players to accommodate him. 

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[Stanley J Makowski]

NO!!!!