(Just Like) Starting Over?

[Louis Addeo-Weiss]

Rather than "continue the momentum" of 2023, new Marlins front office leadership has seemingly succumbed to gloomy near-term projections and opted for idleness.

“Is this the end of the beginning? Or the beginning of the end? Losing control or are you winning? Is your life real or just pretend?”

The opening lyrics from heavy metal forebearers Black Sabbath’s “End of the Beginning” can be made applicable to the fortunes of your favorite player’s respective peak, or your hometown club’s window to win.

The 2023 Marlins took us on a long, strange trip en route to 84 wins and a surprise playoff appearance. Their achievements came in spite of being outscored on the season by a record 57 runs. Their behavior during this ensuing offseason reeks of an organization not believing in the validity of the recent transpiring events.

Within two weeks of their elimination from the National League Wild Card Series, pioneering GM Kim Ng and the organization mutually parted ways. Ng was reportedly offered an opportunity to stay for 2024, but she would not be receiving her intended promotion to president of baseball operations. Rather, owner Bruce Sherman intended on searching elsewhere for a POBO to leapfrog her on the chain of command.

No less than a month later, on November 6, Miami was again in the news, announcing their hiring of then-Rays GM Peter Bendix in the role Ng had aspired to take on. The plucking of a Tampa Bay brainiac to lead baseball ops —Andrew Friedman (Dodgers, 2014) Chaim Bloom (Red Sox, 2019), and James Click (Astros, 2020) —has been something of a trend across Major League Baseball, culminating in championships for several clubs. “Peter is an established industry leader with an extensive skillset and deep experience that will continue the momentum we have made on the Major League level," Sherman said in the initial press release.

And then, the offseason rolled on, and Bendix instead brought that "momentum" to a halt.

OF/DH Jorge Soler opted out of the final year of his three-year pact. The Marlins declined to issue Soler a qualifying offer. "They haven’t ruled out bringing him back if he settles for a low-money deal," reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "But that’s considered unlikely."

Eleven days into his Miami tenure, Bendix struck his first deal, acquiring utilityman Vidal Bruján and RHP Calvin Faucher in a five-player trade with his former employer, the Rays. December would see Bendix acquire reliever Kaleb Ort off waivers from Boston, as well as Christian Bethancourt—maybe the most significant on-field addition this offseason—to assume catching duties in 2024. The team continued their front office makeover as well with the additions of erstwhile Giants manager Gabe Kapler as assistant GM and Rachel Balkovec to serve as director of player development. Late January saw the appointing of Driveline’s Brandon Mann to a newly created “Pitcher Strategist” position.

However, meaningful on-field moves continued to elude the Marlins.

The incumbent roster shows some promise. Two-time reigning champion Luis Arraez stands alone as the best pure hitter in the game. MLB The Show cover athlete Jazz Chisholm Jr. combines raw ability with the flash and flare that has the potential to draw new, young fans a sport whose primary consumers are at or near middle age. Eury Pérez gave the Marlins and all of MLB a glimpse at one of the sport’s potential future aces in 2023. Braxton Garrett cemented his status in the club’s rotation last season, while Jesús Luzardo’s number-one quality stuff and corresponding 124 ERA+ since 2022 tell us he may soon contend for an NL Cy Young. The club also acquired slugger Jake Burger from the White Sox at least year’s trade deadline and he immediately demonstrated a more well-rounded offensive approach once the change of scenery took effect.

And yet, none of them are locked up to extensions to keep them in Miami long term. Arraez has gone on the record as stating he is “open” to an extension with the club, but there's been nothing to indicate that the Marlins have evened approached him with a legitimate offer.

With this overall lack of action to augment the roster and lack of commitment in current core players (with the exception of Sandy Alcantara), it isn't irrational to forecast that a rebuild may already be in its embryonic stages.

There is also the issue of manager Skip Schumaker’s contract status. The reigning NL Manager of the Year has no guarantees beyond the 2024 season, and with Ng no longer with the organization, this suggests that Schumaker may be a goner as well. Should he be fired or leave on his own volition, the search for a replacement could be a short one given Gabe Kapler’s prior experience with Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bendix may be enticed by the opportunity to firmly put his stamp on the organization and bring in a manager of his choosing.

Barring a truly non-competitive campaign, Schumaker probably wouldn't have to look far to make a lateral move to another dugout. The St. Louis Cardinals, with whom Schumaker spent the first eight seasons of his playing career, employed him as their bench coach under then-first year manager Oliver Marmol. Following a 2022 season that saw Marmol win 93 games capped off by an NL Central title, the Cardinals regressed to that of a 71-win team, their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Given the club’s penchant for playing consistently winning baseball, another season mirroring 2023 could spell Marmol’s demise in the dugout and leave a vacancy.

Assessing the Marlins through a cold, objective lens, regression to the mean is to be expected in 2024. Their .702 winning percentage in one-run games is unsustainable. By sheer runs scored and runs allowed, they had a pythagorean win-loss record of merely 75-87. No MLB team had a larger discrepancy between their real-life and underlying results.

Miami’s farm system is thin on near-term reinforcements. The system ranks 26th and 29th out of 30, according to FanGraphs and Bleacher Report, respectively, highlighted by Noble Meyer who's still multiple years away from debuting in the majors. Recent $1.4M amateur signing Luis Cova (not yet 17 years old) is even further away.

Mimicking the polarizing tanking practices enacted by organizations such as the Cubs, Astros, Orioles or even the late-2010s Marlins doesn't appear to be on the table, but a gradual restock of the farm system through trading marquee players—reshuffling the deck to bring it in full alignment with Bendix's vision—could be coming in the not-so-distant future. That'd be a disorienting tune to hear for long-suffering Fish fans who thought a new window of relevance had just opened for them.

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[Stanley J Makowski]

Unfortunately, this fellow wrote with a golden hand and a sound mind. There is nothing to be gained in crying. We can only moan. Any hope is slowly drifting away with each uneventful week. I dread to even consider the morale factor for our holdovers.  Even this non-inspiring acquisition of a mediocre OF (at best) has one basic theme. He will get the minimum ML salary if he makes the team...which he shouldn't in the first place.