With the Mesa Solar Sox’s Arizona Fall League season coming to a close yesterday, I thought it’d be interesting to stack the players’ pre-AFL numbers against what they did under the desert lights, and take a moment to analyze what those performances actually mean. The AFL is, by nature, a small sample size. While it’s an important developmental checkpoint, it’s not a crystal ball. Any progress or regression we saw over the last month and a half should be taken seriously but not treated as gospel. (AFL ranks listed are based on OPS for hitters and ERA for pitchers. Players are ranked specifically amongst their teammates in the Solar Sox as opposed to the whole league.)
 

Starlyn Caba – 19 y/o, Dominican Republic
SS, B/T: S/R - Single-A Jupiter Hammerheads / Rank: 8/18

2025 Regular Season:

• 51 G, 194 AB - .222/.335/.278/.613  
• 43 H - 35 1B / 6 2B / 1 3B / 1 HR  
• 21 RBI, 14 SB / 6 CS, 34 BB, 34 SO

2025 AFL Season:

• 18 G, 74 AB - .297/.409/.419/.828
• 22 H - 17 1B / 3 2B / 0 3B / 2 HR
• 10 RBI, 2 SB / 3 CS, 14 BB, 19 SO

What it means:
Starlyn Caba’s AFL performance is a sigh of relief for every Fish fan who was starting to feel like we got fleeced in the Jesús Luzardo trade. Caba’s jump from a .613 OPS in Single-A to .828 in the AFL shows impressive adaptability and an ability to handle more advanced pitching. His power ticked up without sacrificing plate discipline, suggesting real maturation in his approach. The combination of better contact quality, on-base skills, and emerging extra-base pop points toward a genuine high-contact, high-OBP middle infielder profile. If he carries this into 2026, a jump to High-A or even a quick push to Double-A looks well within reach.

PJ Morlando – 20 y/o, Maryland
OF, B/T: L/R - Single-A Jupiter Hammerheads / Rank: 16/18

2025 Regular Season:

• 58 G, 205 AB - .215/.371/.332/.703  
• 44 H - 31 1B / 7 2B / 1 3B / 5 HR  
• 30 RBI, 8 SB / 1 CS, 46 BB, 71 SO

2025 AFL Season:

• 18 G, 59 AB - .136/.261/.136/.397
• 8 H - 8 1B / 0 2B / 0 3B/ 0 HR
• 5 RBI, 4 SB / 0 CS, 9 BB, 23 SO

What it means:

There’s no way to sugarcoat this one. As rough as PJ Morlando’s regular season was, his AFL stint was even rougher. A .397 OPS with zero extra-base hits makes it clear he was overmatched. He couldn’t translate his regular-season discipline into actual impact against higher-level arms. The bat-to-ball issues, swing decisions, and ability to handle velocity all look like works in progress. As a number-one pick, expectations have been sky-high, and his continued inability to produce is setting off alarms for anyone paying attention. The talent is still there, but the timeline looks longer and more uncertain than anyone hoped.

Fenwick Trimble – 23 y/o, Virginia
OF, B/T: R/R - Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos / Rank: 10/18

2025 Regular Season:

• 84 G, 296 AB - .253/.372/.402/.774  
• 75 H - 47 1B / 19 2B / 2 3B / 7 HR  
• 41 RBI, 31 SB / 4 CS, 49 BB, 67 SO

2025 AFL Season:

• 21 G, 68 AB - .265/.388/.412/.800
• 18 H - 12 1B / 4 2B / 0 3B/ 2 HR
• 10 RBI, 11 SB / 1 CS, 13 BB, 14 SO

What it means:

The Fenwick Trimble hype train keeps rolling. His slight OPS bump doesn’t fully reflect the real progress under the hood. He maintained his plate discipline, kept the speed impact alive, and showed that his contact skills carry over against stronger competition. Trimble feels like one of the safest, highest-floor developmental wins in the system right now - a steady table-setter type with potential to exceed that ceiling if the power keeps inching upward. At the rate he’s going, a 2027 spring training look - or even a late 2026 cameo - doesn’t feel crazy anymore.

Holt Jones – 26 y/o, Connecticut
RHP - High-A Beloit Sky Carp / Rank: 3/24
Pitch Mix: big slider, heavy usage sinker & sweeper, light usage curve & changeup

2025 Regular Season:

• 34 G, 4.78 ERA, 47.1 IP, 62 K, 1.89 WHIP, 8.03 BB9, 11.85 K9

2025 AFL Season:

• 8 G, 2.23 ERA, 12.1 IP, 11 K, 0.99 WHIP, 5.21 BB9, 8.18 K9

What it means:

Easily my biggest surprise of the AFL. Holt Jones didn’t just hold his own - he excelled. His ERA and WHIP both saw dramatic improvements, putting him squarely at the front of the Marlins cohort of arms out there. He executed his slider-focused arsenal with more consistency, limited baserunners, and trimmed down the walk rate. The command still isn’t pristine, but it’s enough to project him as a legitimate multi-inning relief weapon or depth starter if this sticks. Big riser in the org.

Karson Milbrandt – 21 y/o, Missouri
RHP – Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos / Rank: 10/24
Pitch Mix: low 90’s four-seam touching 96-99 with carry & arm-side run, good curve, developing slider and changeup

2025 Regular Season:

• 22 G, 3.00 ERA, 90 IP, 113 K, 1.28 WHIP, 4.80 BB9, 11.30 K9

2025 AFL Season:

• 5 G, 4.81 ERA, 13.1 IP, 23 K, 1.22 WHIP, 5.50 BB9, 15.80 K9

What it means:

Not a horrible showing by any stretch of the imagination, but definitely short of the breakout I predicted. Milbrandt’s ERA climbed, but the strikeout surge is impossible to ignore. The stuff clearly plays against advanced competition. What held him back was scattered command and sequencing lapses - mistakes that AFL hitters punished. Still, his ceiling didn’t change. The fastball-curve combo is legit, and with sharper command and continued development on the slider and changeup, he remains one of the more exciting starting prospects in the system.

Aiden May – 22 y/o, New Mexico
RHP – Single-A Jupiter Hammerheads / Rank: 4/24
Pitch Mix: heavy usage mid-90’s sinker, plus-plus sweeper, developing changeup & cutter

2025 Regular Season:

• 10 G, 2.66 ERA, 27.1 IP, 30 K, 1.11 WHIP, 5.31 BB9, 9.96 K9

2025 AFL Season:

• 5 G, 2.98 ERA, 15.1 IP, 15 K, 1.13 WHIP, 4.77 BB9, 8.94 K9

What it means:

May continues to be one of the more quietly effective arms the Marlins drafted in recent years. His AFL numbers mostly mirror his regular-season line - steady ERA, solid WHIP, and manageable walk rates. His sinker-sweeper pairing worked just fine against more advanced bats, and he showed enough polish to strongly indicate he’s outgrown Single-A. The big developmental hinge now is whether his changeup or cutter can emerge enough to round out a true starter’s mix, but either way, this AFL stint should bump him up the ladder.

Darwin Rodriguez – 21 y/o, Venezuela
RHP - Single-A Jupiter Hammerheads / Rank: 13/24
Pitch Mix: mid-high 90’s fastball, high-spin curve, developing changeup

2025 Regular Season:

• 4 G, 8.44 ERA, 3.2 IP, 4 K, 2.19 WHIP, 16.88 BB9, 11.25 K9

2025 AFL Season:

• 7 G, 6.59 ERA, 8.2 IP, 6 K, 2.32 WHIP, 10.98 BB9, 6.59 K9

What it means:

Rodriguez missed almost two straight seasons due to injury, so the AFL was more about evaluation than results. Unfortunately, the issues that plagued him before injury remain. The command isn’t there, the walk rate is sky-high, and advanced hitters had no problem waiting him out. The raw stuff is loud enough to dream on, but the refinement isn’t close. Without major improvement in mechanics or strike throwing, it’s hard to envision a meaningful role taking shape.

Jack Sellinger – 25 y/o, Nevada
LHP – Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos / Rank: 15/24
Pitch Mix: plus slider with consistent sweeper, sinker, changeup

2025 Regular Season:

• 40 G, 2.31 ERA, 66.2 IP, 89 K, 1.19 WHIP, 5.44 BB9, 12.10 K9

2025 AFL Season:

• 7 G, 7.71 ERA, 7 IP, 12 K, 1.57 WHIP, 2.57 BB9, 15.43 K9    

What it means:

In what was my biggest surprise of the Fall League, Sellinger’s showing was rough - though not without silver linings. The ERA ballooned and mistakes over the plate got punished, but the strikeout rate spiking to 15.4 K/9 shows the stuff absolutely plays. The issue is consistency. When he locates, he’s flat-out nasty; when he doesn’t, the ball lands a mile south of anyone's glove. He remains a viable high-strikeout lefty with upside, but command and sequencing need to sharpen for him to succeed against upper-minors hitters.

All told, this AFL run gave us a pretty honest snapshot of where the Marlins’ next wave of talent actually stands. We saw real leaps from Caba, Trimble, Jones, and May - players who either strengthened their prospect case or outright jumped tiers. We also saw reality checks for Morlando and Rodriguez who both flashed their ceilings, but also showed just how far they still are from reliably reaching them. Meanwhile my thoughts about Sellinger and Milbrandt's respective upsides remain relatively unchanged due to just how stark the difference in performance was from regular season to the fall. The Fall League isn’t a verdict, but it exposes flaws, rewards real skill, and gives us a glimpse into which players are ready for more and which ones still need to figure it out. If nothing else, it gave us plenty to look forward to (and plenty to keep an eye on) heading into 2026.