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  • Even in Marlins win, Zac Gallen's dominance over Jazz Chisholm Jr. continues


    Ely Sussman

    All 12 head-to-head matchups between Gallen and Chisholm have ended the same way: with an out being recorded.

    Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Miami Marlins won on Friday. That's the most important thing, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. contributed with three catches in center field that helped preserve Braxton Garrett's shutout. However, Miami's leadoff man was once again muffled at the plate against Zac Gallen, the right-handed pitcher whom he was traded for in 2019.

    Chisholm attempted to bunt for a hit in the top of the first inning, but impacted the ball too hard. Gallen fielded it a few steps in front of the mound and easily made the out.

    In the third, Chisholm batted with runners on the corners and two outs, trying to build upon the 2-0 lead that his teammates had created that inning. Gallen struck him out swinging on a curveball in the dirt.

    Then in the fifth inning, Gallen K'd him looking with a 2-2 changeup at the knees. The Arizona Diamondbacks would go to their bullpen before Chisholm had a chance to face him again.

    This was the fourth MLB regular season game where Chisholm and Gallen have battled each other. All four times, Chisholm has gone 0-for-3 while Gallen was in the game.

    Via Stathead, here is a complete summary of those head-to-head matchups:

    Screenshot 2024-05-25 at 6.49.57 AM.png

    Even in a tiny sample size, these lopsided results are notable. Gallen is one of 17 pitchers who Chisholm has had at least 12 MLB plate appearances against. Gallen is the lone member of that group to prevent Chisholm from reaching base safely.

    Screenshot 2024-05-25 at 12.42.45 AM.png

    Gallen's right-handedness makes his performance additionally impressive. Chisholm has been a substantially better hitter during his career when operating with the platoon advantage. Of the 31 righties who Chisholm has faced most frequently (7 PA or more), only Gallen has limited him to a .000 OPS.

    You could invert the 0-for-12 head-to-head results into 12-for-12 favoring Jazz and the D-backs would still be comfortably "winning" this trade. Particularly using stats that account for the players' availability, Gallen (16.8 bWAR in Arizona) has lapped Chisholm (6.9 bWAR in Miami). Gallen has received NL Cy Young award votes in three separate seasons. Both players have earned one All-Star selection apiece and will be considered again this year, but Chisholm suffered a season-ending injury that prevented him from participating in the 2022 Midsummer Classic. Overall, he has played in just 62.1% of all Marlins regular season contests since making his major league debut.

    Although Chisholm has youth on his side—being two-and-a-half years younger than Gallen—the Marlins might not be able to capitalize on it. Despite a recent stretch of terrific run prevention, they're still owners of the second-worst record in the NL (18-34). Postseason contention seems implausible this season (0.4% odds, per FanGraphs) and the Marlins have twice changed front office leadership since he's been in the organization, which means teams across the sport will be attempting to acquire Chisholm for themselves. The silver lining is that the combination of Chisholm's all-around potential, durability so far in 2024 and low salary ought to make his trade value higher now than it had been when the Marlins originally got him as a volatile prospect.

    Chisholm has created a bunch of fond memories for Fish fans through the years...just not when matched up with the top-of-the-rotation arm they could've had instead of him.

    Who is the Marlins' strongest NL Rookie of the Year candidate?

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