Sandy Alcantara to the Cubs? Dissecting the potential for a blockbuster trade

At the outset of 2025, it was never a question of if the Miami Marlins would entertain offers for staff ace Sandy Alcantara, but when they would reel off what has the potential to be the most impactful trade of this baseball season. Sources within the Marlins organization were playing it cool amidst a couple of thrilling series wins. Reality began setting in last week, with only an improbable home run standing in the way of six consecutive losses. Much like last year, the front office will be looking for opportunities to swap veterans for young players in anticipation of returning to contender status a few years down the road.

What makes the former NL Cy Young award winner and workhorse an intriguing trade candidate? He is owed “just” $34.6M combined over this and next season, along with a $21M club option for 2027. For context, between 2021 and 2023, only Zack Wheeler (16.5 bWAR) produced more pitching value than Alcantara (16.0 bWAR), and Wheeler's annual salary is $42M through 2027. Alcantara is a bargain and very much in the prime of his career at age 29.

Needless to say, every team could use Sandy Alcantara. Which one could provide Miami with the most satisfying return to soften the blow of what would be a depressing departure?

As things currently stand, the Chicago Cubs feel to be the best fit, both for Alcantara and for a Marlins team dedicated to stacking its pipeline with potential impact players.

Pros for Chicago

The Cubs have already lost their ace, Justin Steele, to season-ending surgery on his left elbow. Among the 41 pitchers to throw at least 425 innings between 2022 and 2024, Steele ranked sixth with a 3.10 ERA and nearly identical 3.14 FIP, a period that saw him finish fifth in 2023 NL Cy Young voting. 

A rotation now headlined by Shota Imanaga has managed a 3.05 ERA in 11 games played post-Steele. Even so, the addition of Alcantara would greatly boost the group's upside for both this season and beyond. They are currently leaning on the likes of Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon, and Matthew Boyd, each of whom are set to hit free agency after 2025 or 2026. The deep-pocketed Cubs wouldn't hesitate to pick up Alcantara's $21M option for 2027 if he's productive.

In three career appearances (two starts) at Wrigley Field, Alcantara owns a 3.14 ERA and .699 opponent’s OPS. Most notably, though, Alcantara shined in his first career postseason start, tossing 6 ⅔ innings of 1-run ball in Chicago during Game 1 of the 2020 NL Wild Card Series.

There’s also the Kyle Tucker of it all.

Acquired from the Astros this past December, Tucker, one of the most well-rounded players in baseball, is set to cash in big once he enters free agency at season's end. Since becoming a full-time player in September 2019, Tucker has been the 10th-most valuable position player in baseball, according to fWAR (22.6). He is the only player with at least 100 HR, 90 stolen bases, and 30 runs on defense (Rfield) since the start of 2020. Tucker has continued his excellent play with the Cubs, hitting .302/.404/.615/1.018 through his first 24 games. 

The Cubs are hoping to retain Tucker long term. Acquiring Alcantara would be a sign of good faith in their effort to persuade him to re-sign with the organization. 

Divisional perspective matters, too. The complacency of the Cardinals and Pirates, the questions surrounding the Reds and if their core of young players will click simultaneously, along with the year-to-year enigma of, “How will the Brewers get it done this time given their limitations?” should only motivate Chicago more to acquire marquee talent. 

Pros for Miami

As previously noted, the winner of the Sandy Alcantara sweepstakes ought to be the one who can supply the Marlins with the best potential return. Pitchers like Alcantara don’t grow on trees, but the prospect of two, three, or possibly even four players who could play pivotal roles on your organization’s next competitive club is an alluring potential outcome.

The eighth-ranked MLB farm system ahead of the 2025 season includes a lot of potential trade chips who are practically major league-ready. One such player, 3B Matt Shaw, has already gotten a taste of the highest level. 

Shaw cracked the Cubs Opening Day roster and sported a .535 OPS in 18 games before being demoted to Triple-A. A change of scenery similar to what Connor Norby experienced going from the Orioles to Marlins last season could pay big dividends when you consider his career .900 minor league OPS.

Chicago's highest-ranked pitcher, RHP Cade Horton, has shown an ability to miss bats, striking out 175 in his 135 innings in pro ball. Sporting two potential 60-grade pitches in his slider and changeup, Horton is off to a fast start, sporting a 1.46 ERA through his first three starts at AAA Iowa. Command issues may limit his ceiling, but Horton has mid-rotation starter written all over him. 

Cons for Chicago

Regardless of his résumé, Alcantara’s player profile isn’t without its own warts.

After logging 228-plus innings of a 2.28 ERA in his Cy Young award-winning 2022, Alcantara did experience a bit of a hangover in 2023, pitching to a 4.14 ERA (113 ERA+) over 28 starts, though still amassing 3.9 bWAR in the process. Pitching through most of that season with lingering biceps tendinitis, he ultimately developed a UCL sprain that required Tommy John surgery.

In his absence in 2024, the Marlins rotation ranked 29th in ERA at 5.24 and last with 1.6 fWAR.  

Through four post-TJ starts, the 29-year-old has pitched to an ugly 7.27 ERA and with a tick less velocity on his four-seam and sinker in the early going. Encouraging, though, are Alcantara’s 4.73 FIP along with a 91st percentile ground ball rate, right in line with his previous campaigns. 

Alcantara's best asset used to be the volume of his workload. It's been more than 19 months since we've seen him make a quality start.

Cons for Miami

The Marlins' recent history of trading superstar-caliber players hasn’t worked out in their favor. Fans are still reeling over the Giancarlo Stanton trade after the 2017 season, a salary dump for a reigning NL MVP and just three years after signing a then-record $325M extension. The Christian Yelich trade to Milwaukee was a mere month later. He succeeded Stanton as NL MVP in 2018, has been the main protagonist of the most successful era in Brewers history, and still bats in the heart of their lineup to this day. The players acquired by Miami in both transactions failed to pan out.

A very notable exception was the deal sending Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals. The headliner of that prospect package? Sandy Alcantara.

Standing pat with Alcantara is not the easy answer, either. The Marlins lose leverage as his years of club control dwindle.

Alcantara's current slump is more than the simple product of bad luck. He has made mechanical changes and still has the prove he can succeed with them. While pivoting to build around Alcantara would be celebrated by fans, it'd be a risky proposition as he enters his 30s.

The length of Alcantara's contract gives the Marlins enough runway to rebuff offers at the deadline if they feel he needs the months of August and September to remind the rest of the league of his awesome upside.

The Marlins and Cubs most recently collaborated on a deal in December, swapping Vidal Bruján for Matt Mervis. The early returns of that favor the Fish—Mervis is their leading power hitter and run producer.

Sandy Alcantara for Matt Shaw and Cade Horton: Which side would say no if that offer was on the table right now?