What would it take for Sandy Alcantara to win NL Comeback Player of the Year?

Nobody holds himself to a higher standard than Sandy Alcantara. That mindset is part of the reason why he's been so successful. Even on the heels of a lost season, having undergone one of the most significant medical procedures that a baseball pitcher can undergo, he will still be shooting for the moon and trying to immediately re-establish himself as a bonafide ace.

For just a few minutes, though, I want to lower the bar and consider how he stacks up against other 2025 Comeback Player of the Year candidates.

Every season since 2005, the award has been presented to a player in the American League and National League "who has re-emerged on the field during the season." Yes, the criteria is vague, but Alcantara is clearly eligible. I'm sure of this because several other recent winners were also coming back directly from Tommy John surgery, including Matt Harvey (NL, 2015), Greg Holland (2017, NL) and Justin Verlander (AL, 2022). Here is the complete list of past winners.

Sometimes, the pool of candidates in a league is shallow. For example, the lone Marlin to win the award was Casey McGehee. After spending the previous season playing in Japan, McGehee was more or less an average everyday third baseman for the Fish in 2014 (1.9 fWAR in 160 G). The MLB.com beat reporters who vote on the award apparently didn't have a more remarkable performer to go with in the NL that year.

Health permitting, there should be a lot more star power in the award conversation this time around, and I have a feeling that Alcantara prefers it that way.

With Opening Day exactly one month away, BetOnline.ag has tabbed former NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. (+300 odds) as the early favorite to be the league's 2025 Comeback Player of the Year. Alcantara is right behind him with +375 odds. Acuña's Atlanta Braves teammate and former MLB strikeout leader, Spencer Strider, has the third-shortest odds (+550). After them, it's Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers (+700), who has made significant progress on his long road back from shoulder issues, but currently has "no timeline" to return. One of the longshots listed is Alcantara's protégé, Eury Pérez. His case would have to be all about quality over quantity considering the expectation that Pérez won't resurface in the majors until July.

The prospect of Alcantara overcoming both Acuña and Strider to win seems daunting at first glance. However, both of them will begin the regular season on the injured list while completing their rehab. More importantly, unlike other MLB awards, the CPOY voting process involves only one candidate per team, so the lesser of the two uber-talented Braves won't even factor into the results.

The messiest variable is whether or not Alcantara gets traded to the American League midseason. During their latest press conference, neither Bruce Sherman nor Peter Bendix were willing to publicly commit to keeping him throughout 2025. The 29-year-old is under club control for three more seasons, but the rebuilding Marlins are destined to be sellers at the trade deadline and Alcantara's value could be at its absolute peak if he is performing as well as hoped. Meanwhile, many of the other leading NL CPOY possibilities play for postseason contenders, so it's doubtful that they will change teams if they're effective.

With no specific restrictions on his workload, I still think Alcantara should be the frontrunner for NL Comeback Player of the Year. While acknowledging the AL trade risk, it is equally likely that he goes to a contender within the Senior Circuit, which would only bolster his candidacy. On the other hand, the Braves figure to be careful in managing Acuña and Strider during the regular season because this is the second surgeries they've had on their knees and elbow, respectively.