Will Rule 5 draft picks Zach McCambley, Matt Pushard get returned to Marlins?

Understandably, Fish On First is mainly focused on roster battles taking place within Miami Marlins camp. However, with three weeks of spring training games remaining, let's check in with the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals, who selected Zach McCambley and Matt Pushard, respectively, in the 2025 MLB Rule 5 draft. Both right-handers have already demonstrated that they can be effective against Triple-A competition. Will they get their first taste of the big leagues this season?

It's remarkable that Pushard has even made it onto a 40-man roster given his background. He went undrafted in 2022 after spending six seasons at the University of Maine, then struggled in the rookie-level Florida Complex League as a 24-year-old. But over the last three seasons, he led all Marlins pitchers with 129 minor league appearances, posting a 3.19 FIP (2.96 ERA) while reliably throwing strikes and inducing soft contact.

The Cardinals have deployed Pushard only once in the Grapefruit League thus far. In his one inning of work on Saturday, his average four-seam fastball velocity was 93.3 mph. He also showed his slider, changeup and curveball. The New York Mets' MJ Melendez hit a wind-aided home run off of him.

Since the Rule 5 in December, the Cardinals have made several trades confirming that the franchise's long-term sustainability is a far higher priority than maximizing wins in 2026. Beyond JoJo Romero, Riley O'Brien, Ryne Stanek and Matt Svanson, it seems their bullpen plans are fluid. That bodes well for Pushard.

McCambley, on the other hand, was a prominent Marlins prospect from the beginning. A third-rounder out of Coastal Carolina, he was invited to big league camp for the first time way back in 2021. Miami attempted to develop him as a starter during his first two MiLB campaigns. His transition to the bullpen was rocky—his walk rate stayed uncomfortably high in 2023, then soared even higher in an injury-shortened 2024.

As discussed with Corey Seidman of Sports Illustrated, McCambley found his groove with Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville last season in part thanks to the addition of a cutter. He describes it as a "bridge pitch" between his mid-90s four-seamer and signature sweeper.

The Phillies are approaching 2026 with a "deep playoff run or bust" mindset and the investment they've made in their roster reflects that. It's atypical for a 96-win team with a payroll over a quarter-billion dollars to make room for a Rule 5 guy.

While Pushard doesn't face much resistance in his pursuit of an Opening Day opportunity, McCambley really needs to earn his. Controlling his fastball will be crucial; through three spring innings, the 26-year-old has already issued five walks (all of them fastballs that missed low or away or both).

Due to Rule 5 restrictions, McCambley and Pushard cannot be optioned to the minors at any point during the 2026 season. If their teams no longer feel that they merit active roster spots, they have to be designated for assignment, then offered back to the Marlins for $50,000 if they clear waivers.

What is the likelihood that these former Fish wind up back with their original organization by season's end? I estimate there is a 70% chance of McCambley being returned, with Pushard at 33% (1-in-3 chance).