Did Miami pull the trigger on Jesús Luzardo trade too soon?

Trading a controllable, local, talented starting pitcher is never easy. Last winter, the Marlins faced a tough decision regarding left-hander Jesús Luzardo.

The 27-year-old, under team control for two more seasons, endured an uneven 2024 campaign, posting a 5.00 ERA while spending multiple stints on the injured list. He threw just 66 ⅔ innings on the year and had trouble missing bats with his four-seam fastball, posting the sixth-lowest whiff rate in MLB with that pitch (11.1%). His fastball velocity was also down compared to his career norms and he allowed the most home runs per nine innings since his first season as a Marlin in 2021. 

Holding onto Luzardo meant the Marlins had to assume the risk that his recent struggles could continue, or worse—he could have re-injured himself and even further diminished his value. Instead of taking that chance, Miami chose to strike a deal in December 2024, trading the talented left-hander along with catcher Paul McIntosh to the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for a pair of prospects: Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd.

When asked why the timing was appropriate to move their No. 2 starter, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix emphasized the organization's confidence in the players acquired.

“These are guys that we feel very strongly about,” Bendix said. “We think that they’re really high-end pieces that are hard to acquire, and they can help us be good for a long time. That was the impetus behind the trade.”

Caba, 19, is widely viewed as the centerpiece of the return. A standout defensive shortstop, he has Gold Glove potential but is still several years away from the big leagues. Boyd, meanwhile, profiles more realistically as a fourth outfielder at the Major League level. They are currently assigned to Miami's Low-A and High-A affiliates, respectively.

While the Marlins took the safe route, Luzardo is already making a strong impression in Philadelphia. In his first four starts, he’s gone 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA over 23 ⅓ innings. The Phillies are 3-1 in games started by Luzardo, who has already accumulated 0.9 fWAR—ranking ninth among all pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Luzardo's fastball velocity is up compared to last season and he’s missing more bats. He has also added a sweeper to his arsenal, which has become his most-used secondary pitch and been highly effective.

Meanwhile, Miami is rapidly fading after a solid first couple weeks of the season. Their starters own the second-worst ERA in baseball (5.66) and they're averaging the fewest innings per outing. The Fish enter Sunday at 8-12, losers of five consecutive games.

Do the Marlins regret pulling the trigger so soon?

It’s possible that Miami could have commanded a stronger return by waiting. While length of club control is always a key factor in appraising a player’s trade value, Luzardo still had two seasons remaining. Trading him closer to the July 31 deadline—when playoff contenders are prone to making desperation moves—likely wouldn’t have diminished his value significantly, if at all.

Additionally, notable aces across the league have sustained season-ending injuries for competitive ball clubs. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery before Opening Day. Given the Yankees’ history of trades with the Marlins and their perpetual "World Series or bust" expectations, it’s conceivable that New York might have overpaid to acquire Luzardo.

Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs is the latest frontline starter to be lost for the season. Notably, the Marlins have had multiple trade discussions with the Cubs in recent years involving Luzardo and other pieces. Given Luzardo’s strong start to the campaign and the Cubs’ and Yankees' deep farm systems, it’s fair to wonder if the Marlins could have secured a better return than the package received from Philadelphia.

The fact that he's only 27 years old only supports the possibility that his best may still lie ahead. 

Hindsight is always 20/20, and it’s difficult to fault Peter Bendix and his staff for making what they believed was the safe, forward-thinking move. However, with Luzardo excelling early in the season and Starlyn Caba struggling to produce offensively at the Single-A level—albeit at just 19 years old—it’s fair to second-guess the timing and return of the deal. While the long-term outlook may still work out well for Miami, the short-term optics have raised questions.