No gas, all breaks: Why Edward Cabrera rarely uses his fastball

Since he first stepped foot on a major league mound in 2021, Edward Cabrera's pitch usage has been unconventional.

Cabrera had been widely regarded as one of the Miami Marlins' top prospects, with some of that hype rooted in his elite fastball velocity. He was capable of generating high-90s heat with ease and sustaining that velo throughout his starts. It was only natural to compare him to the team's ace, fellow hard-throwing Dominican right-hander Sandy Alcantara.

As it turns out, Cabrera does not crave the sensation of lighting up a radar gun. Through his first 45 MLB appearances (43 starts), he has only twice had fastballs account for the majority of his total pitches, per Baseball Savant. Both on those instances—September 30, 2021 and June 7, 2023—were flukes as Cabrera exited early with injury concerns.

From 2021-2023, Cabrera threw fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers and cutters combined) 35.5% of the time. Only a handful of pitchers with similar major league workloads over that span were more reluctant to use heaters.

The beginning of Cabrera's 2024 campaign was delayed by a right shoulder impingement, so we are operating with a limited sample here. He made three rehab starts with Triple-A Jacksonville and had approximately 33.7% fastball usage (MiLB pitch type data is not as precise as MLB).

However, in two starts since being activated from the injured list, he has taken his approach to a new extreme. He demonstrated excellent command and putaway ability during his April 15 season debut against the San Francisco Giants (6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K). Only 19 of his 91 pitches were fastballs (20.9%).

Cabrera followed that up with a stressful yet altogether solid start against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday (5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K) while throwing 17.7% fastballs, setting a new career low in that department.

Combining those outings, Cabrera's fastball usage is 19.3%. Among big leaguers who have thrown at least as many pitches as him (187), there is nobody else in the same zip code. If we refine the query further to focus on pitchers who have made multiple starts this season, it's even clearer how much of an outlier Cabrera is:

Why is Cabrera so shy about throwing fastballs? The simplest answer is that bad things have been happening when he does. Opponents have a .500 batting average against his four-seamer. In terms of run value per pitch, it's the third-worst offering in the majors (-11.0 RV/100). 

Even when batters can eliminate the possibility of a fastball, Cabrera still has a deep enough arsenal to keep them guessing. He's got a changeup (92.5 mph average velocity), slider (88.2 mph) and curveball (84.1 mph) that each move in distinct ways and at distinct speeds. Because he throws his change so hard and so frequently, the average velo of Cabrera's pitches this season has been 90.3 mph, well above the 89.1 mph MLB average for right-handers.

My main concern is whether Cabrera can continue to succeed with such predictable pitch locations. Four-seamers thrown up in the zone or above the zone are typically difficult to put in play. If Cabrera rarely plays that card, batters can more easily "cheat" on his secondary pitches and focus their gaze on the bottom half of the zone where he likes to aim them:

Cabrera's third start of the season is expected to come at LoanDepot Park on Saturday vs. the Washington Nationals. Their production against fastballs has been even better than the Giants and Cubs, so Cabrera ought to be leaning heavily on his secondary stuff once again.