Declan Cronin is still good

Declan Cronin entered the month of June riding high. The 26-year-old reliever had come a long way from being DFA’d twice this past winter, first by the White Sox and then again by the Astros.

Cronin was squeezed off the Marlins active roster for a couple weeks shortly after the regular season began, but his job security has not been in doubt since being recalled in mid-April. Showcasing a two-pitch slider/sinker mix both from a funky arm angle and all with downward tilt and command, the righty was extremely effective in 26.2 IP through the end of May. He held down a 1.35 ERA and 2.72 FIP. His 61.4% groundball rate ranked seventh-highest in baseball amongst qualified pitchers. Cronin also had a respectable 24.3% K rate and was stranding baserunners at an 83.8% clip.

Along with Tanner Scott, Cronin was a bright spot in the Marlins bullpen. Peter Bendix looked as though he had made one of the most impactful waiver claims of the MLB offseason.

Cronin won't be joining Scott as an All-Star representative, though. His production has slipped recently. His ERA has jumped two full runs to 3.35 and his WHIP is up to 1.40. So what happened? Did Cronin regress to the mean and lose value or is something else in play?

In not so many words, Cronin himself is just as effective as he used to be. The placement of his pitches has not changed, as illustrated below. Through May 31, he had a 2.72 FIP. In June/July, it is 2.13. He still hasn't allowed a home run in 2024.

The two extra runs on Cronin's ERA? They can be attributed to terrible luck and poor defensive play by the Marlins while he was on the mound.

Since June began, Cronin’s BABIP is .404, 11th-highest amongst all qualified relievers in baseball. That is up considerably from the .329 BABIP he posted in the first two months of the season. Additionally, he was forced to deal with this brand of glove work behind him:

On a few occasions, Cronin was teased with good defensive play on one end, only for it to come undone on the back end:

MLB opponents have made a few adjustments against Cronin. They are not whiffing against his sinker as much as they did initially and they've found ways to lift the ball more consistently.

That being said, Cronin's trade stock should not be diminished by what happened this past month. He was still a great pickup by Bendix, perhaps his best of the winter. The baseball gods owe Cronin and his fielders some more routine plays (and maybe a steak dinner to boot) in the second half of the season.