Why the Marlins may or may not exceed expectations in 2025

Happy Opening Day. Every MLB team is 0-0 (except for the Cubs and Dodgers). However, most people and projection systems are already aligned in thinking that the Miami Marlins will be non-competitive in 2025.

What will make the difference between meaningful improvement versus jockeying for draft lottery position for the second consecutive season?

Let's begin by thinking positive thoughts before outlining the main reasons for concern.
 

Why they will exceed expectations

Good returning bullpen

One thing that president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has shown in his short time here is that he knows how to find good bullpen pieces in the bargain bin.

Declan Cronin, Calvin Faucher, Jesús Tinoco, Lake Bachar, and Anthony Veneziano were all guys that were claimed off waivers at some point before or during the 2024 season. They contributed to a 'pen that ranked second in the majors in wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

Faucher was given the closing role last year after Tanner Scott was traded at the deadline. The 29-year-old right-hander pitched to a 3.60 ERA and 2.17 FIP in 15 games after Scott was dealt. He made six saves in eight opportunities. Unfortunately for him, he was sidelined in early September with a right shoulder impingement and would miss the rest of the season.

Tinoco was next in line for the job, converting on three of four save opportunities in the final month of the year. Hitters made 35 plate appearances against the 29-year-old right-hander across all of 2024. They collectively mustered four hits, only one of which was for extra bases, and struck out at a 34.3% clip.

Bachar and Veneziano each posted ERAs below 4.00 last year in 10 games each. With Veneziano being the only healthy left-hander in the bullpen to start the season, expect him to have a much larger workload than last year. 

Cronin will miss the start of the season with a sore hip. But last year, he was a reliable middle reliever. Used in mostly low-leverage spots, he put up a 4.35 ERA, but his FIP of 2.58 would suggest he should have fared much better. 

This isn’t even to mention Anthony Bender, who made his return to the mound last season after missing 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Bender didn’t have the best results in 2024, but his pitches still showed the sharpness that made Marlins fans fall in love with him in 2021 and 2022. His sweeper—a variation of his slider that was his calling card before the surgery—had a .170 batting average against last year. 

New prospects coming up soon

For the first time in years, there are hitters knocking on the door of the major leagues that have actually made positive impacts in the minors. 

Catcher Agustín Ramírez, and infielders Deyvison De Los Santos and Max Acosta are expected to be up at some point in 2025. Ramirez and De Los Santos, in particular, represent some of the best power the organization has seen in years. De Los Santos, 21 years old, slugged .523 and hit 26 home runs in 99 games in Triple-A last year, while Ramírez, 23 years old, hit nine over 68 games at the same level.

Pitchers Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur, both traded to Miami last year from the San Diego Padres, are also expected to come up this year.

Snelling, a 21-year-old lefty, was one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A last year, and struggled there before his change of scenery. He settled down slightly when he got to the Marlins Double-A affiliate in Pensacola and actually made one start a Triple-A last year, becoming the youngest in franchise history to do so.

Mazur is a lanky right-hander that made his MLB debut last year with the Padres at just 23 years old. The Marlins sent him down to Triple-A when they acquired him. He had inflated ERAs at each level he pitched at last year, but put up solid BB/9 and K/9 numbers. Peter Bendix mentioned his name multiple times in recent months as someone the organization is impressed with.

Returning guys take a step forward

The fun thing about having a young team is that, in theory, everyone should take a step forward year after year. Of course, that doesn’t always happen. But there’s certain guys that people should have their eyes on as breakout candidates.

Once he returns from a Grade 1 oblique injury in May, Connor Norby will try to one-up his Marlins debut in which he reached base safely in 17 of his first 18 games and hit six home runs with a 1.043 OPS in that span. He cooled off considerably after that, hitting .164 with two extra-base hits over the final 18 games of the year. Playing a mostly full season in the majors should do wonders for a 24-year-old that former manager Skip Schumaker admitted to having a man crush on.

Otto Lopez was another guy who had an up-and-down season at the plate. He was hitting .297 on June 4, but then hit .168 over the next 31 games, with only two extra base hits. The 26-year-old infielder finished his season by posting a .903 OPS in September and October. If he could be somewhere in between his best and worst self from last year, combined with a full season of elite defense he’s shown at second base, he could realistically get All-Star votes.

A team-wide improvement we saw this spring (yes, we know it’s just spring training) is that the Marlins were drawing a lot of walks. Miami drew the third-most walks in the majors during spring training. During the regular season last year, they were second-worst behind the Chicago White Sox. For a team that doesn’t have a lot of power, getting guys on base by any means necessary will be huge in stealing a few wins.

Why they won't exceed expectations

Rotation can’t finish the season

One of the detriments to the Marlins 2024 season is already rearing its ugly head again. The pitching rotation, which was the only proven position group on this team, is entering the season injured once again. Braxton Garrett is out for the year after getting UCL revision surgery on his throwing elbow, Edward Cabrera will begin the year on the injured list with a blister issue, and Ryan Weathers will join Cabrera on the IL with a mild strain in his throwing forearm To add onto this, Eury Pérez is still rehabbing from his Tommy John surgery he had in April 2024 and is set to return after the All-Star break.

That leaves the Marlins with Sandy Alcantara, Max Meyer, Valente Bellozo, Connor Gillispie, and Cal Quantrill to start the season. 

While Alcantara is a bonafide workhorse with two 200-inning seasons in his career, he’s coming off Tommy John surgery and will likely be on somewhat of a leash. The 29-year-old is also likely going to be traded some time before the trade deadline in late July.

Meyer has only eclipsed 100 innings once—in 2021 with Double-A Pensacola. Gillispie has logged just eight innings in the majors, although he did surpass the 100-inning mark in 2023 and 2024 in the high minors. While they’ll be given a larger workload than they’ve previously had in the majors, it’s still unlikely to see a pitcher make a drastic jump in innings pitched from one year to the next.

Even when Cabrera returns—an optimistic timeline would be mid-April—he is no guarantee to stick in the rotation consistently. He has had multiple IL stints over the last two seasons and hasn’t hit the 100-inning mark at all in his major league career. 

While not impossible for guys like Meyer, Gillispie, Bellozo, and Cabrera to eat up innings, it’ll require each of them to exceed the ceilings they’ve set in their respective careers.

Lack of power in the lineup

The Marlins struggled with power last year, ranking 27th in total home runs and 24th in slugging percentage.

And then, they traded their leader in home runs and slugging in Jake Burger.

Now, the only relatively consistent power hitter they have is Jesús Sánchez, and he will be out for at least the first two weeks of the year as he deals with a left oblique strain. That leaves Jonah Bride as the only healthy player on the team who hit more than 10 home runs against major league pitching last year, hitting 11 in 71 games.

The Marlins have guys in their lineup with power, like Griffin Conine and Kyle Stowers, but they have yet to prove that they can get the bat on the ball consistently, both posting strikeout rates of over 30 percent last year. These weren’t just growing pains, either. Both of these hitters struggled with strikeouts while coming up through the minors. 

Connor Norby could be a candidate to hit over 20 home runs this year, assuming he avoids setbacks during his oblique rehab.

Coaching staff inexperience

In speaking with a few members of this new coaching staff during the offseason, it’s clear they have a coherent and cohesive plan. In observing them during spring training and talking to those they’ve worked with in the past, there is reason to believe they will do well as time goes on.

But for now almost every coach and coordinator is in the first year of their respective role. 

Manager Clayton McCullough was a manager in the low minors for the Toronto Blue Jays organization from 2007-2014, and was a base coach with the Los Angeles Dodgers for four years before coming to Miami. 

Bench coach Carson Vitale was a manager for the Los Angeles Angels’ Dominican Summer League team in 2014 and 2015, and served as a hitting coach in their system for two years before that. The highest role he’s served in the majors was with the Seattle Mariners as the Major League field coordinator from 2020-2024.

Hitting coach Pedro Guerrero and pitching coach Daniel Moskos were each assistant coaches for three seasons in their previous stops with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs, respectively.

Tyler Smarslok, who will be the club’s first base, infield, and baserunning coach, has never coached in the majors. At least he has managerial experience in the Arizona Fall League. 

Although new bullpen coach Brandon Mann has a lot of experience working with Driveline and serving as a pitching strategist with Miami last year, this will be the first time he is officially a coach at the major league level. 

The two big exceptions to the aforementioned lack of experience in their current roles are assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon and assistant pitching coach Alon Leichman. They each spent two seasons with the same job titles with the Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds, respectively.

When Skip Schumaker was going through his debut season in 2023, he often mentioned how much it helped to have guys like Mel Stottlemyre Jr. around. McCullough doesn't have the same luxury. It will be interesting to see how this staff handles the peaks and valleys with the glaring lack of tenure in the room.