Agustín Ramírez should be new 2025 NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner

It's been 12 years since a Miami Marlins player last won National League Rookie of the Year, the longest drought in franchise history. With nearly a quarter of the 2025 season in the books, the "Gus Bus" is in the driver's seat. Marlins catcher/designated hitter Agustín Ramírez has as good a chance as any candidate of taking home the hardware.

Ramírez immediately captured the baseball world's attention—he posted eye-popping numbers during his debut week. After a brief lull, he's raking once again. Through 15 MLB games entering Saturday, the 23-year-old is slashing .276/.312/.621 with a 151 wRC+, which leads the entire NL rookie class. He has the most extra-base hits on the Marlins (12) despite appearing in barely 40% of their total games played.

It isn't outrageous to project Ramírez to continue being a great offensive player. He is doubtful to slug like peak Giancarlo Stanton all season, but he's capable of reaching base more frequently. Consistently spraying sharp line drives to left and center field, his expected batting average is .307, according to Baseball Savant, 31 points higher than his actual BA has been so far. More balls will find grass if he maintains this quality of contact. His walk rate should rise as well as opponents recognize the damage he's capable of doing and throw him fewer pitches in the strike zone.

Opportunity is a huge piece of the NL ROY equation and Ramírez has that in Miami. Although the Marlins currently have three mouths to feed at the catcher position, he's still getting in the lineup on a near-daily basis. Ramírez has started 14 of 16 games since debuting, averaging 3.81 plate appearances per team game during that span. Staying on that pace through season's end would give him just enough playing time to become a "qualified" hitter (min. 502 PA). That would make his stats even more accessible to voters who may not be keeping on a close eye on the last-place Fish.

Ultimately, award cases are all relative to the other candidates. Ramírez has the fortune of sticking out in an extremely underwhelming field. 

Signed as an international free agent last offseason, Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki was viewed as a potentially dominant MLB starter from the get-go. However, his fastball quality has been much less remarkable than advertised and his control is simply bad (nearly as many walks as strikeouts). Through eight starts, Sasaki owns a 4.72 ERA, 6.17 FIP and -0.3 fWAR.

After getting his feet wet in the majors last August/September, Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews entered 2025 as a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport, but like Sasaki, he's been a sub-replacement-level player. Crews is contributing very little outside of baserunning with a .183/.236/.305 slash line (52 wRC+). The former second overall draft pick has been unlucky on batted balls, plus he will have a playing time advantage over Ramírez barring significant injury or a minor league demotion. Still, Crews has dug a significant hole for himself through 36 games.

There is still time for new challengers to emerge. Over the past decade (excluding the COVID-shortened season), four players have gone on to win AL/NL ROY while debuting on May 10 or later: Carlos Correa (2015, AL); Yordan Alvarez (2019, AL); Michael Harris II (2022, NL) and Paul Skenes (2024, NL). Conveniently, this article is going up on the day of Cade Horton's debut. He could be a fixture in the Chicago Cubs rotation moving forward.

No Marlin has ever won NL ROY unanimously. Don't expect Ramírez to change that. He will be dinged for his choppy defense behind the plate and DH assignments. All things considered, though, I like his odds more than anybody else's.