Prospect Of The Month, May 2018 - Pablo Lopez

Although the Marlins may be on the wrong side of the win-loss column now and for the rest of the season in in-game action this year, they are very much so on the right side of that equation when it comes to offseason moves and regarding the culture they are hoping to build in the future. One of the biggest figures that speaks to that success is right handed pitcher Pablo Lopez who after an impressive spring training with the big league club, has had an absolutely unprecedented start to his 2018 campaign at the AA level. For his most recent success this past 30 days with the Shrimp, Lopez earns our Prospect Of The Month honors for the month of May.

Lopez is a 6’3”, 200 pound righty who hails out of Cabimas, Venezuela. He’s just the fourth player in history to come from the city on the shoreline of Lake Zulia on the northwestern edge of the country. However, as Pablo explains, his hometown region is rich in baseball tradition which created a great support system during his tenure there. Mileage aside, that support has followed Lopez into his career as an American ballplayer.

Of the countless many that have supported Lopez throughout his baseball career through, he says one individual stands head and shoulders above the rest.

As paramount as his relationship with his family was, Lopez found himself at a crossroads after he was drafted in 2012. After competing in his native country’s affiliated Ball summer league that year, the Mariners pegged him for his North American pro debut the following season. Suddenly on his own still in his teenage years away from the confines of everything he’d ever know and still even somewhat of a stranger to his new nation’s native language, Lopez admits it was a bit of a nervous experience. But with the help of some friendly squadmates as well as some advantageous surroundings, Lopez says he was able to adapt fairly quickly.

Despite the mileage, home remained close to Lopez. He was always in regular contact with his family including his father whom Lopez mentioned earlier was able to help him in a medical capacity. That is because Lopez’s dad (as well as Lopez’s mother before her untimely death when Pablo was still just a child) was a medical internist. Pablo’s father’s expertise was beneficial to him when he was forced to miss the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Lopez says his dad was quintessential during that process and in giving him the advice needed to get back into playing condition.

According to Lopez, even though he wasn’t able to physically throw a baseball for an entire season, the thought of doing so and strategizing on how to do so in a better capacity never left his mind. In fact, those thoughts filled his mind every day, allowed him to maintain his focus, turn a bad experience into a positive one and ultimately come back stronger than ever, maintaining his effectiveness while staying within the limits of his physical capacity.

Finally in 2015, Lopez toed the rubber on a state side field for the first time. Immediately, Lopez showed the same effectiveness that allotted him to hold down a 2.56 ERA and 37/11 in his first 66.2 IP in the VSL back home. Over his first 37.1 IP in the US, Lopez tossed to the tune of a 3.13 ERA in 37.1 IP via a 28/6 K/BB and 1.15 WHIP in rookie ball competition for the Arizona League Mariners.

A year later, Lopez got his first call to full season ball with the Clinton Lumberkings and at the same time transitioned back to the starting rotation. In 17 appearances (13 GS), Lopez managed a 2.13 ERA by way of a 0.91 WHIP and 56/9 K/BB. Amongst hurlers with at least 80 IP, Lopez’s WHIP was the best in the league, his ERA was third best and his 6.22 K/BB was second best.

In 2017, Lopez made the jump to A+ Modesto Nuts of the California League. In one of the most hitter friendly leagues in all of Minor League Baseball, Lopez’s ERA ballooned to 5.04 due to a massive .341 BABIP. However, his FIP stood at just 3.36. Still this did not stop the Mariners from flipping Lopez to the Marlins as what was thought to be an add on piece to a trade involving centerpiece Brayan Hernandez and fellow organizational hurlers Brandon Miller and Lukas Schiraldi. For the rest of 2017, Lopez showed his true potential holding down a 2.18 ERA and 32/7 K/BB in 45.1 IP for the Jupiter Hammerheads. Lopez says his jump in production can be attributed to his work done in the offseason concentrating on better releases and more advantageous pitch spotting.

So far this season in his call-up to the AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp has done more than not skip a beat — he has taken a massive step forward. It is an impression that began in spring training when Lopez tossed 4.1 scoreless IP in 3 appearances which put him in the conversation to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. Although a freak minor injury Lopez suffered on a line drive come-backer late in the spring campaign ruined that prospect and afforded him to be assigned to AA Jacksonville, Lopez, after making a slightly abbreviated season debut on April 21, was one of the best pitchers in all of Minor League Baseball in the month of May. In 34.2 May innings, Lopez limited his Southern League opposition to just three total runs for a 0.78 ERA via a 0.92 WHIP and .195 BAA. While his BAA and WHIP each placed second in the Southern League, his ERA marked the lowest monthly ERA since August 2017 when Freddy Peralta of Biloxi had a 0.40 in nearly half as many IP (22.1). It is the best May ERA for a Southern Leaguer since Blake Snell held down a 0.72 ERA in the month in the year 2015. What’s more is that Lopez was maintaining a 0.24 ERA until a 6 IP, 2 ER quality start caused his ERA to “balloon” to what it concluded at for the month.

For his success to begin the season and his Marlins tenure this past month, Lopez credits the ideology and strategic way of approaching at bats that the Marlins’ organization maintains throughout the system. He also credits his coaches and teammates who have created a positive environment for him to compete in.

Lopez’s calling card is a mid-80’s changeup that he spots at will with great depth and late fading action. He both pitches off of it and pitches into it off of a low 90’s sinker which he commands well in the lower half (proven by his 42% ground ball rate and 95% LOB%) and a mix-in curveball. Above all, by his own admission, Lopez is a weak contact artist who works through hitters quickly en route to making it deep into starts. Although the strikeout numbers have begun to pile up this year due to Lopez’s impeccable control (51/8 K/BB in AA), Lopez says he is remaining focused on sticking to his roots as a to-contact pitcher.

That said, although Lopez knows himself and his craft well has his mind set on limiting pitches per AB and contact allowed, he isn’t ruling out a bump in velo as he finishes out his tenure in the minors and begins his MLB career.

Even at present, Lopez has all the tools and then some to succeed as a starter at the MLB level and his phenomenal month of June as well as his solid start in AAA (3.27 ERA in his first two starts) prove that. Pencil this strike thrower who trades nasty whiffs for quick weak contact outs in to make his Marlins debut sometime in the second half of this season.

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