Why Luis Arráez's historic batting title was less valuable than any other

Batting average: the most ubiquitous individual statistic in baseball. For years, a hitter’s worth was largely predicated on their ability to hit for average. Some of the game’s most beloved stars—Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Pete Rose, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and Ichiro Suzuki—left an indelible mark on the sport given their knack for compiling hits. 

And now, it is Luis Arráez's turn. His .343 batting average in parts of two seasons with the Marlins from 2023-2024 ranks first among the 78 players in franchise history to take a minimum of 750 plate appearances. That skill quickly made him a fan favorite in Miami.

As has become the case, 2024 proved a relatively standard affair for Arráez. He collected 200 hits for the second consecutive season, hit over .300 for the fifth time in his six seasons, struck out less often than anyone in the sport, and picked up his third consecutive All-Star appearance, winning his third consecutive batting title in the process. 

On the surface, a great season, right? 

To that, I say, “Not so fast, boomer.”

With time, the game has evolved, and by proxy, so has the lens through which we assess players. The same way Star Wars fans have George Lucas to thank for having an excuse to dress up in Vader and Leia garb to lug themselves off to some yearly convention, baseball obsessives owe their debts to the likes of Bill James, Tom Tango and Jay Jaffe for presenting new metrics that richly detail how players impact wins and losses, plus how they compare to their predecessors.

While Arraez led the National League in the frequency of hits relative to at-bats, his 2024 season was otherwise unremarkable. Taking all aspects of the game into account, his Baseball-Reference WAR was just 1.1.

Why is this significant enough to merit discussion? That is less than one-quarter of the value he provided in his lone full-length Marlins campaign (4.9 rWAR). Of the 308 MLB hitters to win a batting title since 1871—the first year in which official statistics were tracked—Arráez’s 1.1 rWAR and minus-1.0 WAA (Wins Above Average) are the lowest marks; only 1980 Bill Buckner (1.5 rWAR and -0.6 WAA) was even in the same ballpark. There have been 13,170 seasons where MLB hitters put up more than Arráez’s 1.1 rWAR despite failing to hit .300.

Producing runs involves much more than simply stringing singles together. There’s power and plate discipline, knowing what pitches to swing at and to not swing at. Juan Soto only hit .288, but no one is going to argue with a .989 OPS courtesy of his 18.1% walk rate and 76 extra-base hits. The combination of Soto's all-around production and age is certain to make him one of MLB's highest-paid players next year.

What about Arráez’s season merited such little value?

It starts with a .122-point drop-off in OPS, from .861 in 2023 to .739 in 2024. Although his BA still began with a three, he didn't accrue hits in bunches to nearly the same extent. He also became aggressive to a fault, often going multiple weeks between drawing walks. Despite setting a career high in stolen bases, he offset that by making more outs as a runner.

Then there's the defensive component. Arráez, a fringy second baseman with a spotty defensive track record, proved below-average at the position this past season, posting minus-3 defensive runs saved over 42 games there. First base, a position Arráez had seen time at in 2022 and 2023, was something he did a lot more of upon his May 4 trade to the San Diego Padres, starting 61 games there for the rest of the season where he also graded out at minus-3 defensive runs saved. Statcast had a similar perspective on his glovework, estimating him at minus-12 outs above average (OAA).

Even putting the quality of his defense aside, it hurt Arráez to drop to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, as quantified in this 2015 FanGraphs piece. When not at first base, he served as designated hitter more frequently (46 starts) than at any other point of his career.

Players relegated to 1B/DH generally lack mobility, but compensate for it with their size and strength. They are relied upon to hit the ball over the fence, something Arráez doesn’t do all too often. Of the 29 hitters with at least 600 plate appearances as a first baseman since 2022, Arráez’s 9 home runs rank fewest among the group. 

As articulated above and also here by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs, Arraez took a significant step back. While the Padres thrived with him serving as their everyday leadoff hitter, there's no statistical indicator that they thrived because of him—for that, you'd have to turn to anecdotal evidence (via The Athletic's Dennis Lin).

But perhaps it is unfair to fixate too much on his most recent season? 

To reiterate, Arráez was a genuine star-caliber player in 2023. However, he sustained a left thumb injury this past year on June 25 and played through it without an IL stint. Although his bat-to-ball prowess was not impacted, it wouldn't be surprising if the discomfort hampered his quality of contact. He underwent surgery to repair the torn ligament on October 16. The Padres expect him to be a full participant come spring training, and in the meantime, they are "expected to consider a potential extension," per Dennis Lin.

Arráez’s limited defensive profile, lack of baserunning acumen, and largely powerless approach cast a polarizing picture of his future. The Padres have been no stranger to handing out eight- and nine-figure contracts in recent years, but is it prudent in this case?

Batting champion? Sure. 

Valuable? That's debatable.