3 under-the-radar names who could help the 2024 Marlins

It goes without saying the 2023 season brought with it many surprises for the Miami Marlins: late-game comebacks, a near-historic record in one-run games, an 8-game skid following the All-Star break, culminating in an improbable playoff berth. It was a rollercoaster in the most literal sense of the word.

Looking ahead to 2024, expectations have been raised. Miami has never reached the postseason in consecutive years. Assuming that GM Kim Ng remains in place and owner Bruce Sherman approves of increased investment in the major league roster, it's not unreasonable to dream about.

However, any path that leads back to October hinges on outside reinforcements (being outscored by 57 runs is not a sustainable model). Here are some free agent names who could help the 2024 club in one way or another, while also not breaking the bank.

SP Seth Lugo

Notable 2023 Stats: 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+), 2.2 BB/9, 5.63 IP/GS

The news that staff ace and reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery leaves the Marlins with little choice but to make moves to augment their 2024 starting rotation. The addition of Seth Lugo could be a sleeper hit move to fill some of the 200-plus inning gap created by Alcantara's absence.

After spending the first five seasons of his career playing the Ross Stripling role of bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation, the Mets entrenched Lugo firmly into their bullpen heading into 2021. Over the next two years, Lugo authored 111 ⅓ innings of 3.56 ERA ball (111 ERA+), while also striking out more than a batter per inning (10 K/9).

Upon joining the Padres for the 2023 season, the right-hander saw himself return to the starting rotation, posting a Xerox-like 3.57 ERA, this time over a career-best 146 ⅓ frames. He finished the campaign on a high note, coming up just one out shy of shutting out the Giants on Sept. 26. Lugo's success could largely be attributed to the leaps he took with his sinker, posting a run value of plus-11 after being worth minus-4 runs each of the last two seasons.

Lugo declining his $7.5M player option for 2024 and re-entering free agency appears to be a formality.

OF/1B Mark Canha

Notable 2023 Stats: .355 OBP, 15.6 K%, 2.2 rWAR

None of what Mark Canha does "wows" you, but his consistency deserves some praise. Canha has a .364 OBP since the start of 2018. During the last two seasons (mostly with the Mets), he posted a solid .259/.359/.395 slash line (114 OPS+). Even better was the fact that Canha accompanied his patient approach (9.5 BB%) with a lower-than-league-average K% (17.6). A move to Milwaukee at the trade deadline saw Canha rediscover some of that lost power, as evidenced by a 75-point rise in his OPS.

While the Marlins got similar surface-level production out of Bryan De La Cruz in 2023 (.411 SLG, .715 OPS), the difference is evident when comparing the two defensively. De La Cruz accrued -8 defensive runs saved (DRS) between all three outfield positions, and his -7 OAA (Outs Above Average) ranked 215th out of 263 potential fielders. Canha, on the other hand, proved closer to the middle (-1 OAA, 152nd) with bonus points for him also possessing the ability to moonlight at first base in a pinch.

Canha, who turns 35 in February, has a $11.5M club option for next season. Even if the Brewers pick that up, he could be a trade target for Miami.

C Austin Hedges

Notable 2023 Stats: 99th percentile in Fielding Run Value, 98th percentile in Framing, 11 DRS

If there were ever a catcher to supplant Jeff Mathis in today's game, it may be Austin Hedges. Simply put, he cannot hit. Hedges owns a career .568 OPS in 2,213 plate appearances, good enough for -3.4 oWAR. Among the 266 hitters with at least 2,000 PA since 2015, Hedges's adjusted 55 OPS+ is by far the worst in the majors. The 122-point gap between Hedges and the number 1 hitter in that span, Mike Trout (177), is the same as the difference between Rickey Henderson (127) and hitter Greg Maddux (5).

So, why do we have him here?

As undoubtedly bad as he has been offensively, he has been the exact opposite and then some defensively. Since debuting in 2015, Hedges' 86 defensive runs saved are the most among all catchers and sixth-most among all players in the sport. Only Tyler Flowers (70) and Yasmani Grandal (62) added more strikes to their respective pitching staff in that span than Hedges (61), and only Caleb Joseph saved more runs (15) than him (14), per Fielding Bible's Adjusted ER Saved metric.

While the aforementioned Grandal (another free agent) provides more potential upside at the plate, Hedges has managed to sustain his high-level caliber of defense longer. Couple that with a Marlins organization that could very well move on from Jacob Stallings, and the fact that Hedges will come dirt cheap, a potential tandem of Hedges and Nick Fortes could give the 2024 Fish a brick wall behind home plate.

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