Marlins tied for best odds of winning 2025 MLB Draft lottery

[Kevin Barral]

As a perk of struggling so much on the field this season, the Marlins will be co-favorites to receive the No. 1 pick in the next amateur draft.

The Miami Marlins celebrated a clinching on Wednesday night. With their loss to the Minnesota Twins, Miami secured 22.45% odds of winning the 2025 MLB Draft lottery and receiving the top overall pick, which is the highest percentage possible.

Under normal circumstances, the MLB teams that finish with the three worst records in a season have equal odds of winning the lottery. However, the league-worst Chicago White Sox are ineligible to win this year due to their previous lottery results and large market size. Instead, those with the two worst records will have better odds than the rest. The Marlins are now guaranteed to have a bottom-two record because they're five games below the Los Angeles Angels with four games left.

Whichever team finishes with a worse record between the Angels and Colorado Rockies will also receive 22.45% lottery odds. The team with a better record will have 18.03% odds. Every non-playoff team is entered into the lottery with the exception of the White Sox and Athletics.

The only time that the Marlins have held the first overall pick in the MLB Draft was in 2000 when they took Ádrian González. That was after a season where they lost 98 games. González proved to be an excellent pick, ending his career with 43.5 bWAR, winning four Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards and five All-Star selections. None of those numbers came for the Fish because in 2003, he was traded to the Texas Rangers in exchange for reliever Ugueth Urbina.

Top prospects in the 2025 MLB Draft include Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and UC Santa Barbara right-handed pitcher Tyler Bremner. LaViolette was recently named the No. 1 prospect in the class, according to Baseball America, with Holliday coming in right behind him.

The draft lottery takes place in December during the Winter Meetings in Dallas, Texas. The draft itself isn't until July 2025.

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