What to expect from the Marlins in the second half of 2024

[Kevin Barral]

Previewing the storylines and individual players who matter most when following the final two-plus months of this Miami Marlins season.

MIAMI, FL—As we return from a much-needed All-Star break, the Miami Marlins sit with a 33-63 record, which is the worst in the National League and second-worst in baseball. With productive veteran players potentially getting traded and a difficult strength of schedule the rest of the way, per BrooksGate, wins will continue to be hard to come by.

With all of that being said, Fish On First will continue covering the Marlins daily and your support is greatly appreciated. During the second half of the 2024 season, these are the storylines worth monitoring closely.

 

Trade deadline

It's been widely reported and known that both closer Tanner Scott and leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm Jr. are being shopped as the July 30 deadline approaches.

Scott, a pending free agent, is guaranteed to go. The 2024 All-Star representative has dominated as Miami's closer (1.34 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 14 SV in 40.1 IP) and could handle high-leverage situations out of any contender's bullpen.

In the final series before the break, Chisholm was moved to second base after being a full-time center fielder throughout the last two seasons. It's obvious that the Bahamas native is being auditioned there for teams who intend to use him at second moving forward. At the moment, the New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals are believed to be pursuing Chisholm, with a recent report from Bob Nightengale noting that the Mariners are the frontrunners.

In a recent Miami Herald article, Calvin Faucher, Declan Cronin and Josh Bell were also noted as potential trade candidates.

Don't overlook A.J. Puk, who since going back to the bullpen has posted a 2.39 ERA and 2.74 FIP. He hasn't allowed an earned run through his last 12 ⅔ innings pitched (11 games). Puk isn't a free agent until after the 2026 season, so there isn't any hurry to trade him, but this may be the peak of his value.

 

 

Starting rotation changes

Trevor Rogers is the only member of the 2024 Marlins Opening Day rotation who still holds a spot as we go into the second half. Sixto Sánchez, Roddery Muñoz, Bryan Hoeing, Valente Bellozo, Kyle Tyler and Yonny Chirinos are among those who have been used to eat innings, but none have solidified themselves as long-term contributors yet.

Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers and Braxton Garrett are each on the injured list for the foreseeable future. However, Max Meyer could be back from Triple-A Jacksonville soon. He's performing at his best lately, and beginning on Sunday, the Marlins no longer have anything to gain from limiting his MLB service time.

It should be exciting to watch the former first-round draft pick re-emerge. There is also pressure on Edward Cabrera, whose stuff continues to impress, but had MLB's highest ERA before the break among pitchers who made at least seven starts.

 

Position players with new opportunities

When the Tim Anderson was designated for assignment, Xavier Edwards was recalled from AAA and has been the primary shortstop. Since his return, Edwards is slashing .378/.440/.444/.884 with three RBIs. Could he be the leadoff hitter for the Marlins after Chisholm is dealt? He'll get the reps to prove himself.

Jesús Sánchez, who had been limited to facing right-handed pitching for much of his career, will now have an opportunity to face lefties more often. This season, Sánchez is 6-for-49 against LHP this season. The potential departure of Chisholm and the absence of Dane Myers with a fractured ankle opens the door for the power-hitting Dominican to become an everyday option.

 

Prospects on the rise

Victor Mesa Jr. is Miami's top position player prospect, according to our new Fish On First Top 30 update. Through 72 AAA games, he's slashing .268/.328/.454/.782 with 13 home runs, 48 RBIs and a 99 wRC+. He's currently a member of the 40-man roster and can play all three outfield spots well. If he remains consistent for the Jumbo Shrimp, he could be called up before the end of the 2024 season.

The 2023 Marlins Minor League Player of the Year, Troy Johnston (#20 prospect) deserves a shot at the major leagues. After a slow start, Johnston is slashing .282/.343/.405/.748 with six home runs, 44 RBIs and a 95 wRC+. Already 27, he is blocked behind Josh Bell for the moment, but with Bell struggling and due to hit free agency this offseason, there is nothing to lose by going with the homegrown guy down the stretch.

Griffin Conine (#24 prospect), son of Jeff Conine, has been one of the top offensive players in the Marlins system this season, slashing .271/.350/.514/.864 with 17 home runs, 50 RBIs and a 119 wRC+. His strikeout percentage is high at 29.0%, but that's his lowest mark since the 2018 season with the Toronto Blue Jays organization. 

A longshot to come up this season because he's only 21 years old, Javier Sanoja (#11 prospect) is slashing .286/.347/.410/.755 with four home runs and 44 RBIs between AA and AAA. Sanoja's 5.2% strikeout percentage is currently the lowest in the International League and playing shortstop and center field well is certainly a boost to his value. He's showing that he could be impactful as a utilityman in 2025.

If Scott and other relievers leave town, Anthony Maldonado could finally get an extended chance to stick in the Marlins bullpen. Powerful righty Elvis Alvarado has been nearly unhittable for the Jumbo Shrimp, while Luarbert Arias has gone under the radar. With a 3.25 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 10.15 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9, including only two earned runs allowed in his last 25 ⅓ innings pitched, Arias should earn a look at the major league level soon.

 

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In the second half of 2024, individual performances matter more than whether the team wins or loses. You hope to see improvement from young players and signs that the Marlins are inching toward building a more complete roster for 2025 and beyond.

The Marlins will begin a seven-game homestand on Friday against the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Looking forward to seeing the young trade replacements for the last two months of the season.