2024 MLB Draft Profile: Carter Johnson

[Hector Rodriguez]

What if the Miami Marlins reached for a high school prospect with the 16th overall pick to save some money for the other rounds of the draft?

Overview

Position: SS

Height: 6’2″

Weight: 180 pounds

School: Oxford HS (AL)

Commitment: Alabama

Carter Johnson is a 6’2”, 180-pound shortstop out of Oxford High School in Oxford, Alabama. The 2024 draft class has many top-tier collegiate power hitters and that seems to be the preferred demographic for the Marlins with their first-round pick. However, if some of their top targets are off the board, Miami could pivot and sign a high school player to an underslot deal instead. That brings us to Johnson.

On MLB Pipeline, Johnson is the 40th-ranked prospect and the ninth-ranked shortstop in the 2024 draft class. On Perfect Game, Johnson is the 19th-ranked prospect and the fifth-ranked shortstop in the country. He’s also the #1 prospect in Alabama. Johnson is signed to play college baseball for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

At the plate, Johnson is a well-rounded prospect who has developed into an excellent hitter. Johnson has a line-drive approach and can drive the ball to all fields. He has advanced plate discipline with plus power, mostly to his pull side.

Defensively, Johnson has plus hands and a good arm, but most scouts view him as a third baseman at the next level. He also has above average speed.

 

Strengths

• Advanced plate discipline
• Drives the ball to all fields
• 20+ home run projection
• Plus glove

 

Weaknesses

• Lacks present power
• Might move to third base at the next level
• Needs to work on reading spin

 

Pro Comparison: Gunnar Henderson

Projection: First two rounds pick (34th on the 2024 MLB Mock Draft Consensus Board as of July 6)

 

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Bottom Line

I expect the Marlins to draft a college hitter in the first round, but that could require a signing bonus equivalent to the No. 16 pick's full slot value of $4,704,700. Selecting Johnson should be less expensive than that. If the team feels his long-term projection is similar to other candidates remaining on the board, they might decide to save a higher percentage of their bonus pool for signing players in the later rounds.

 

Check out the rest of our 2024 MLB Draft Profile series.

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