Gaining ground: 2024 Marlins threatening MLB record with batted ball profile

[Ely Sussman]

Most of the balls that Marlins hitters have put in play this season have been on the ground. It's no coincidence that they are among MLB's least-productive offenses.

This is nothing new for the Miami Marlins. It was prevalent throughout their thrilling 2023 season, proving it is not perfectly correlated with losing.

However, the 2024 Marlins have taken things to a new extreme during what's been a month of the most unappetizing baseball in franchise history.

The Marlins offense had ample success during Sunday's loss. They plated nine runs against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals, including six in the bottom of the first inning. But their output could have looked much different if not for a CJ Abrams miscue.

With runners on first and second and no outs, Josh Bell pounces on Corbin's first-pitch fastball and hammers it directly into the ground. It reaches Abrams on two hops. Particularly with Bell batting from the right side (longer run to get down the line), this ought to be a routine double play. Instead, in his rush to flip the ball to second, Abrams loses control of it. Everybody is safe.

The next man up, Jazz Chisholm Jr., launched a grand slam. The Marlins eventually batted around in the inning.

We have rarely seen Miami's lineup erupt like that because usually, that grounder is converted into a double play. If Chisholm steps to the plate with two outs and multiple bases open, Corbin can pitch to him much differently. It's plausible that the Marlins would have been held scoreless in that inning.

No need for hypotheticals, though: we have seen the same movie over and over and over again. Even including Sunday's game, the Marlins rank third-worst in the majors with an average of 3.5 runs scored per game. In large part, it's because they are putting balls on the ground more than any other team has in decades.

Sports Info Solutions has tracked MLB batted ball trajectory since 2002. The Marlins entered Sunday with a collective 52.5% groundball rate, which is higher than any single-season groundball rate on record. The only other team to exceed a 50.0 GB% was the 2015 Fish.

The aforementioned Bell is posting a career-high 56.5 GB%, coinciding with awful individual production, but this "dirt disease" has been contagious among Miami players. Tim Anderson (65.1 GB%), Avisaíl García (64.9 GB%) and Jesús Sánchez (64.6 GB%) rank first, second and third, respectively, in the National League in this category (min. 50 PA). Additionally, Luis Arraez, Jake Burger, Nick Fortes and Emmanuel Rivera are each hitting grounders at career-high frequencies.

The Marlins are on track to be the only team in the live ball era with more double plays grounded into (33) than doubles (32). Their team launch angle is 9.1 degrees, per Baseball Savant—the next-lowest teams are at 10.7 degrees and the MLB average is 13.0 degrees.

Amid Sunday's success, for example, the Marlins accounted of eight of the game's 10 lowest launch angles. With the exception of Bell's lucky break, all of the others resulted in outs. Even in a world that no longer allows dramatic shifting, major league infielders are highly effective at gobbling up grounders. For whatever reason, that pattern has not deterred the Marlins.

When the same troubling tendency is afflicting many members of the same roster, it is natural to point to the coaching staff. Brant Brown left his position as Marlins hitting coach last offseason to join the Seattle Mariners. John Mabry has filled his shoes along, flanked by assistants Jason Hart and Bill Mueller.

On the other hand, several of the leading culprits—Anderson, García and Bell—also happen to be the most experienced guys on Miami's roster. Long before they began getting coached by Mabry, you can see they often had trouble elevating balls (albeit not to this extreme). This is partly a player acquisition problem, overloading the lineup with hitters whose groundball-heavy profiles are now compounding in a disastrous way.

It is imperative that the Marlins adjust, whether that be mechanically or philosophically, to reduce their grounders.

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[Bassmaster4]

How do you expect guys who have high career GB % to suddenly change their approach/swing this late in their careers? Don’t see it happening personally. 
 

I agree it’s a player acquisition problem rather than a coaching issue and needs to be addressed, I’ll take strikeouts over DP’s any day of the week.