2024 MLB Draft Profile: Chase Burns

[Hector Rodriguez]

Another elite pitching prospect who could be available for the Miami Marlins with their 16th overall pick, Burns is having a monster season and is generating more swing-and-miss than most of the top pitching prospects in the 2024 MLB Draft. 

Overview

Position: RHP

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 210 pounds

School: Wake Forest

Chase Burns is a 6’3”, 210-pound right-handed pitcher who plays for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Burns is one of the top prospects in the 2024 MLB Draft class.

Coming out of high school, Burns was an elite prospect in the Class of 2021. On Perfect Game, Burns was the seventeenth-ranked recruit and the fifth-ranked right-handed pitcher in his class. Burns was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 20th round that year, but had already announced he would honor his commitment to the University of Tennessee.

In 2022, Burns was named the Freshman of the Year on D1 Baseball. He was also a First-Team All-American across all media outlets. Burns made seventeen appearances and fourteen starts. He posted a 9-2 record with a 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, and struck out 103 strikeouts in 80 ⅓ innings pitched.

In his sophomore season, Burns was a Preseason All-American but struggled on the mound. While his strikeout rate went up, everything else suffered. Burns posted a 5-3 record with a 4.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and had a 7.5 H/9 in 72 innings pitched. After the season, Burns entered the transfer portal and signed with Wake Forest.

During his time at Wake Forest, Burns has dominated on the mound. Through nine games (all starts), he has a 7-1 record with a 3.00 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 16.6 K/9, and struck out 105 batters in 57 innings pitched.

Burns has a three-pitch mix which includes two plus pitches. Burns’ fastball velocity sits 95-98 mph and has touched 102 mph. However, his best pitch is a tight slider that generates a ton of swing-and-miss. His slider has a 61% whiff percentage in 2024. Burns rarely uses his changeup.

 

Strengths

• Two elite pitches
• Power fastball
• Elite slider
• Strike-thrower
• Extremely high strikeout rate

 

Weaknesses

• Rarely throws his changeup
• Struggled in his sophomore
• Relief pitcher risk
• Needs to improve on command

 

Pro Comparison: Zack Wheeler

Projection: Top 15 pick

 

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Bottom Line

Chase Burns has been outstanding this season, returning to his freshman season form. He might be the top arm available in a weak crop of draft-eligible pitchers.

Burns' stock has been trending up and he currently ranks fifth on our 2024 MLB Mock Draft Consensus Board, which means Miami’s chances of drafting him aren’t high.

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