FanPost: Standing Pat Would Be Malpractice For Miami Marlins

[Sean Millerick]

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[Guest Kommenter]

Thank you Sean. Although lamenting the Marlins cheapness is like lamenting gravity - both are givens. The most interesting observation is that replacing Wendle and Stallings in the batting order should lead to more runs, although not fully offset the loss of Soler. Given the history of signing free agents, for all of MLB, not just the Fish (Mets and Yankees come to mind), I don't blame them for not going for another Cueto. I read someone else say that our starting lineup this year is better than our starting lineup last year, pre trade deadline. I would not trade a pitcher as other teams, based on their fan posts, think because we are the Marlins, we should take their garbage for our pitchers. If one of Meyers or Rogers comes back, we have a great rotation as it is and our offense, when looked at over the course of full season 2023 versus 2024 projections, is not that much worse.

The one critical move I would make would be releasing Avisail Garcia unless he has a great spring. And don't get cute packaging him with Luzardo or Cabrera in exchange for prospects so we don't have to eat salary. Just eat the salary. We are going to pay him anyway - will it be for worthless at bats hoping he rebounds, or to sit at home?

[Guest Leo Armbrister]

I agree with you about trading one of our starting pitchers for a less than quality position player. Every team thinks we will give away our staring pitchers I hope we don't make that mistake. I also agrre that we should release Garcia and eat his contract. He is more of a liability than an assett. If he has a great spring training I might change my mind but he has not shown me much in his two years as a Marlin. A quality free agent signing is the only way to improve this club. However I am not optimistic with our cheap owner. So go with what we have and play close low scoring games and hope our pitching andsome timely hitting from Arraez, Jazz, Burger, and Edwards can win a few games.

[Guest]

I largely agree with the commentary, which was probably even too kind. Adding Brujan while subtracting Hampson added another negative. Hampson was a solid contributor. Brujan has failed utterly during call-ups during each of the past three seasons. Even his speed was negated by the many times he was thrown out on the bases.

 

While Chisholm has been pretty good when he's played the last three seasons, he has missed a lot of time. What he has been unable to do at all is play SS. It should be remembered that he was viewed, by Jeter at least, as the future SS pure and simple. At the time of the trade, no one even suggested that Jazz would play anywhere else. While he played a solid 2B and fared alright in CF, he has been devalued by failing to be a SS.

 

Luis Arraez attracted lots of fans last season but was a meager return for a solid pitcher in Lopez. The Marlins don't seem at all likely to extend Arraez, so need to move him now. Such a trade should net a solid young CF and allow Chisholm to move back to 2B,

 

Josh Bell was a very good hitter during his short season with the Marlins but can anyone expect equal results during the coming season? History says no. He flopped at both San Diego and Cleveland over the last couple years. The only guarantees are that he will be slow on the bases and weak defensively at 1B. Jake Burger should probably be assuming the regular job at the cold corner.

 

The catching position was a total fail at the plate. The only new acquisition behind the dish was basically a handout from Cleveland that didn't even require a prospect in return. The position remains a huge weakness.

 

While the bullpen holds promise, especially with a couple key internal additions, the starting staff is a little bit up in the air. Fortunately, the upside is huge.

[Guest]

I certainly appreciate the passion and thoughtfulness of the author here, even if we fundamentally disagree. It goes to show that two fans can and do have differing opinions on the team they follow and, hopefully, are presenting those differences in a spirit of goodwill. Underlying the "malpractice" theme, as I see it, are two basic ideas. One is that the team has the resources to significantly increase the player payroll (and opts not to do so) and the other is the randomness element of the baseball playoff system that we have to consider.

 

I read the FOF projection post and figured that the final payroll number for 2024 will end up around the $109 million that Spotrac shows (including benefits and minor league salaries). Of course, we don't know many things right now - the final composition of the roster could include additional veteran players from trades or late FA signings and there are several unsettled arb deals. The numbers include the sunk costs for Alcantara, Cueto, and Barnes. Even if the Marlins decide to DFA Garcia, which is increasingly unlikely, that contract must be paid and his replacement.

 

My thoughts are that the Marlins are not profitable, although we can't ever really know this. The increased CBT pool will help. The team does have a $30 million future liability for the Stanton contract. Even if they are profitable, this is as it should be, for every business. Also, recall the purchase required a $400 million loan with interest, of course. Payroll is hardly the only expense for a team. Lots more. Nevertheless, let's move on to the field issues.

 

I add my voice to the other commenters who say no to trading our starting pitching. Michael Kay of the Yankees noted just the other day that one of the best reasons for that team's signing of Marcus Stroman was the dearth of and cost of starting pitching in MLB. Ours our cheap, have potentially high ceilings, and are largely under control. They are valuable and we hold the cards now and at the trade deadline. The Marlins should be a team built around pitching, defense, and aggressiveness for the obvious reasons mentioned in this article that we all know. The offense is weak, much less with the loss of Soler. Play to your strengths and forget the idea that the Marlins can do it all, even for a fifty percent increase in payroll. They cannot. Drafting and development create windows and trade options. Start now.

 

The author noted the "unsustainability" of the 33-14 one-run game record. Indeed, we all know the season was a unicorn, not to be repeated, and it makes the point even more strenuously that the offense without Soler would require significant infusions of cash to attain any needle-moving free agents. Simply re-signing Soler. much less replacing him, and just one other middling FA moves the payroll up thirty percent. Without Alcantara and acknowledging the unicorn season's unlikely repeat, this is an ideal season to refrain from a panic we-have-to-sign-someone (anyone) mentality.

 

Last September proved how tenuous pitching is. Yet, we hear the rumors of pitching trades. This is without Alcantara, Rogers' comeback unproven, Cabrera's mound immaturity, and Perez's apparent continued "management" issues. Acknowledge our strengths and build around the pitching while the new regime begins the process of the only long-term strategy that makes sense - strong drafting and development.

 

Now, we come to Chisholm. The author states what we fans have been trying to convince ourselves of - the imminent superstardom of Chisholm. We think way more of him than the league does, of course. By definition, his statistics are part-time player affirmations, and the injury proclivity is undeniable. Hype doesn't make value, as Glenn Geffner notes often. Of course, I hope (once again) that this is his proverbial breakout season. However, neither I nor anyone should bank on that. Even if that is so, and even if several FAs were signed to satiate the sign-to-be-signing fanbase, is that enough? Surely not guaranteed. Baseball requires more than piecemeal additions. It was just luck and the randomness that comes with the new playoff system for which the Marlins can be thankful. We need to forget ranting and platitudes and let Bendix's discipline mantra have a shot. Of course, we can always go for more Seguras, Garcias, and Cuetos, or higher-priced guys who watch the WS on TV with the rest of us.

 

For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth (my Biblical phrase of the day), we also know that the Marlins (since their inception) have as many WS titles as the (genuflect) "genius" Braves, and one more than the Dodgers (even counting the ridiculousness of 2020). Oh, my! We are so sad and so bad! As I often ask, can you imagine the howling if the Marlins had won their THIRD title in 2020? I bet there would be an asterisk in the book, don't you?

 

Perhaps, lots of regular season wins make fans feel better? That's it! The Dodger fans feel satisfied. The opposite - it makes us angry and unfulfilled. The 1990 Braves fans - satisfied with all those divisional titles, regular season wins, and just one WS? No. No, no one cares, even if we fans use those things as weak consolations. Even $400 million teams won't win every year. Only one in thirty will, despite everything. Everything has to hit just right and there is a huge set of random factors from injury to simply getting hot at the right time. Accordingly, forget the conventional thinking and aim for the windows of opportunity - we won't be worse off than any of the other twenty-nine teams in any given year. Unless you really, really like bragging about regular season wins and the number of free agents signed!

[Guest]

I certainly appreciate the passion and thoughtfulness of the author here, even if we fundamentally disagree. It goes to show that two fans can and do have differing opinions on the team they follow and, hopefully, are presenting those differences in a spirit of goodwill. Underlying the "malpractice" theme, as I see it, are two basic ideas. One is that the team has the resources to significantly increase the player payroll (and opts not to do so) and the other is the randomness element of the baseball playoff system that we have to consider.

 

I read the FOF projection post and figured that the final payroll number for 2024 will end up around the $109 million that Spotrac shows (including benefits and minor league salaries). Of course, we don't know many things right now - the final composition of the roster could include additional veteran players from trades or late FA signings and there are several unsettled arb deals. The numbers include the sunk costs for Alcantara, Cueto, and Barnes. Even if the Marlins decide to DFA Garcia, which is increasingly unlikely, that contract must be paid and his replacement.

 

My thoughts are that the Marlins are not profitable, although we can't ever really know this. The increased CBT pool will help. The team does have a $30 million future liability for the Stanton contract. Even if they are profitable, this is as it should be, for every business. Also, recall the purchase required a $400 million loan with interest, of course. Payroll is hardly the only expense for a team. Lots more. Nevertheless, let's move on to the field issues.

 

I add my voice to the other commenters who say no to trading our starting pitching. Michael Kay of the Yankees noted just the other day that one of the best reasons for that team's signing of Marcus Stroman was the dearth of and cost of starting pitching in MLB. Ours our cheap, have potentially high ceilings, and are largely under control. They are valuable and we hold the cards now and at the trade deadline. The Marlins should be a team built around pitching, defense, and aggressiveness for the obvious reasons mentioned in this article that we all know. The offense is weak, much less with the loss of Soler. Play to your strengths and forget the idea that the Marlins can do it all, even for a fifty percent increase in payroll. They cannot. Drafting and development create windows and trade options. Start now.

 

The author noted the "unsustainability" of the 33-14 one-run game record. Indeed, we all know the season was a unicorn, not to be repeated, and it makes the point even more strenuously that the offense without Soler would require significant infusions of cash to attain any needle-moving free agents. Simply re-signing Soler. much less replacing him, and just one other middling FA moves the payroll up thirty percent. Without Alcantara and acknowledging the unicorn season's unlikely repeat, this is an ideal season to refrain from a panic we-have-to-sign-someone (anyone) mentality.

 

Last September proved how tenuous pitching is. Yet, we hear the rumors of pitching trades. This is without Alcantara, Rogers' comeback unproven, Cabrera's mound immaturity, and Perez's apparent continued "management" issues. Acknowledge our strengths and build around the pitching while the new regime begins the process of the only long-term strategy that makes sense - strong drafting and development.

 

Now, we come to Chisholm. The author states what we fans have been trying to convince ourselves of - the imminent superstardom of Chisholm. We think way more of him than the league does, of course. By definition, his statistics are part-time player affirmations, and the injury proclivity is undeniable. Hype doesn't make value, as Glenn Geffner notes often. Of course, I hope (once again) that this is his proverbial breakout season. However, neither I nor anyone should bank on that. Even if that is so, and even if several FAs were signed to satiate the sign-to-be-signing fanbase, is that enough? Surely not guaranteed. Baseball requires more than piecemeal additions. It was just luck and the randomness that comes with the new playoff system for which the Marlins can be thankful. We need to forget ranting and platitudes and let Bendix's discipline mantra have a shot. Of course, we can always go for more Seguras, Garcias, and Cuetos, or higher-priced guys who watch the WS on TV with the rest of us.

 

For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth (my Biblical phrase of the day), we also know that the Marlins (since their inception) have as many WS titles as the (genuflect) "genius" Braves, and one more than the Dodgers (even counting the ridiculousness of 2020). Oh, my! We are so sad and so bad! As I often ask, can you imagine the howling if the Marlins had won their THIRD title in 2020? I bet there would be an asterisk in the book, don't you?

 

Perhaps, lots of regular season wins make fans feel better? That's it! The Dodger fans feel satisfied. The opposite - it makes us angry and unfulfilled. The 1990 Braves fans - satisfied with all those divisional titles, regular season wins, and just one WS? No. No, no one cares, even if we fans use those things as weak consolations. Even $400 million teams won't win every year. Only one in thirty will, despite everything. Everything has to hit just right and there is a huge set of random factors from injury to simply getting hot at the right time. Accordingly, forget the conventional thinking and aim for the windows of opportunity - we won't be worse off than any of the other twenty-nine teams in any given year. Unless you really, really like bragging about regular season wins and the number of free agents signed!

 

TP Joseph

[Guest Kommenter]

Great reply but let me add in one fact. Ownership of the Marlins, and every other MLB team, is extremely profitable. Loria bought the team for $158 million in 2002 and sold it for $1.2 billion in 2017. That's a billion dollar profit or about $70 million annually. That's just the way the sport works, small operating losses but huge capital gains. The reason is that there are only 30 MLB teams and hundreds of billionaires, many of who would like to own an MLB team. And teams rarely come up for sale. Plus more billionaires are moving to Miami. Sherman will certainly also garner a similar huge profit when he sells.

[Guest]

Payroll is projected at $110M and revenue at $220M. There is clearly money to spend if the owner wants to let it fly. However, $ doesn't correlate to success. If the owner measures success by profits, so be it.

[Guest]

You've got me convinced Sherman bought the team as a real estate investment hedged on MLB's charter.

[Guest]

In your words I think this would be the second case of malpractice this offseason, with Ng being the first. Still feels like there's a missing link there; makes me really skeptical of Sherman and foggy on whatever baseball person didn't think Ng should've been promoted. Totally insane that with her performance Sherman had interest in bringing aboard a new #1 in the FO.

 

I could also be convinced on a 3rd instance of malpractice with the apparent nothing of Soler. No Sandy this year so the team just looks worse on paper than it did.

 

There's definitely a lot to be said about the broadcast situation, and a lot more to be said about opportunistic acquisitions. Personally, I think Sherman is too financially frightened to strike when the iron is hot and I doubt Bendix will do much to persuade that. I almost want to give him an excuse for a lame duck few months on account of how he hasn't even seen this team in camp yet. I think a refusal to spend might've been an actual condition of hire.

[Guest]

Really have to disagree about the Lopez/Arraez trade. Totally hear what you mean in that pitchers are valuable, everyone needs them and they get the bag in Free Agency. At least a solid bet to perform does, someone like Lopez who doesn't have an injury history and just seems to be getting better is totally like a prime value pitcher.

 

Where I think you lose me is in your valuation of Arraez. The way I see it there's not much better a bet to perform at the plate than Luis Arraez in MLB. Prime for Prime. If I'm the Marlins, I'm happier to have Arraez. I'd be happier to have like a non-dysfunctional hitter development program, but I'd happily take the batting championships to at least model it. Arraez is a banner player. Lopez is too.

[Guest]

Nearly everything written above reeks of more sophistication than one generally associates with sports talk. Nonetheless, there are at least a few assumptions and postulates that don't reach the same level of what could easily call a certain degree of elegance. Before going into the observations and questions that I would like to present, 4 words from my fellow poster above almost brought tears to my eyes. Kommenter, I love your work, but "Just eat the salary"? It isn't even a hope to hold and we both realize it.

My initial question revolves around Hampson. Was there a reason that hasn't reached fandom for his release? The guy wasn't All Star material, but even ignoring his unquestioned versatility, which one shouldn't, he seemed to make things happen. Shades of Berte before this past season, and to an extent, DLC in 2022. The same reasoning could be presented for moving our former sub captain. The guy presented nearly flawless fielding and could hit in the .250 range, but not with the almighty "power" that everyone now seeks. My age might show, but I will still take a slew of base hits over a home run every 2-3 weeks which seems to be the present sought after remedy.

My even more important question revolves around the very idea of reducing the teams and only strong point for what we all know will never be a hitter of primary significance for monetary reasons. As stated in a former reply, I would at least wait until the future of Rogers and ......play out. If they are anyway near their former potential, the team can then consider a trade from a position of strength, rather than such pending monstrosities as we now see propagandized. As a final in this paragraph, I would never trade Carbrera. Even on a TV screen, one can easily see that his pitches are on a level that might even surpass those of Sandy, and that is saying something. These past playoffs showed far too many very good ex Marlin pitchers and that, too, should be seen as a warning.

My last question concerns the clubs marvelous winning percentage in close games. Is this the result of our starting pitchers, nearly all of whom only face the opposition through the batting order twice. Rather, I would propose that our relief corps were the primary reason, and that in reality, relief pitchers now affect more games than the starters. While attaining a catcher who can hit the ball, and I am a lonesome Forte enthusiast, and filling the SS gap with some degree of competence are important considerations, acquiring one or two RH relievers will win us more games.

Many weeks ago, Eli softly criticized me for terming our post season, and FO news in particular, a disaster. Can anyone think of a single positive news story that will help to bring fans to the ballpark during this offseason? Or seek to improve the team's on field performance?

Since the turn of the year, the past few stories on MLB Rumors on the Marlin's site have been:

*Marlins sigh Balkovek

*no interest in Soler (good)

*Marlins sign Johnathan Davis

*Yankees interested in Luzardo

*Latest on Yankee pitching

*Twins claim Ryan Janson

[Guest]

Respectfully, I disagree about the "unsustainability" of the 33-14 performance in games decided by 1 run. An an analytical sense, 33-14 might be a bit of an extreme outcome; but I think there could be a pattern of winning more than expected in tight games.

 

Skip and co. really seemed to have the team together and the offense seemed to be focused really like no year I've seen from Miami in my 17 years watching. I think that vibe could speak to how Dane Meyers came through. How Hampson had his moments. It wouldn't really be fair to expect a few of the performers from Miami lockdown their position long-term in the majors, but because of their placement and position they came through at the right time & part of that is management. Like kinda cherry picking for positive offense team stats Miami was 7th in fangraphs clutch and 5th in least Strikeouts.

 

It sounds like there could be a consistent ability in 2023 Marlins batters in that they could avoid striking out and apparent ability to make an impact at an important moment. That's all really solid stuff in executing against the gameplan of a pitcher. I think of that late-innings Stallings homerun against the phillies. Like he must've just been looking for that pitch. That stuff adds up, and comes from knowing that the pitcher is doing and implementing your skills against it. Coaching can help that and it's hard not to see Luis Arraez in the strikeout avoidance category. Wouldn't doubt his insights have helped too.

 

It's not for nothing either. Like the Marlins pitching has been incredible for years and it really tests opposing offenses. This year though, instead of an inability to score runs in those close/late/clutch moments there was a real possibility of something happening in Arraez and several others (Soler, Burger, Bell) who all had solid fangraphs clutch. Than just like the game depended on it, something happened when it needed to happen.

 

Call it high performing Managment or game coordination or clutch hitting or whatever 'staying in the at bat' you want. Miami had something going at the plate for the 7th/8th/9th. Maybe 33-14 is really extreme but it was definitely possible and I wouldn't be surprised the formula of lockdown pitching/'23 modeled-offense is one that just outperforms the norm in tightly contested MLB games.

[Guest]

The point is that Lopez was signed to an extension and Arraez will not be.

[Guest]

Marlins need to extend Arraez