Jump to content
Fish On First
  • Create Account

Chad Turner

Verified Member
  • Posts

    216
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Chad Turner reacted to Hans Herrera for a blog entry, Yet another Offseason Blueprint   
    One week ago, Ely started this fun exercise where everyone can see what the wish list looks like for the Marlins this offseason, and I promised my own version of it. Last week, I was away on holiday and didn't have the time to write it down. During the week, many roster moves happened, the most commented - and probably unpopular - was Troy Johnston claimed off waivers by the Rockies. Yesterday, I found that M.J.S. posted his own Blueprint. Now it's my turn, and once again, I do this with my wishes, but always hand in hand with what I think is realistic, both when it comes to trade proposals and budget spending.
    40-man roster crunch:
    For the most part, this already happened. But let's recap the roster moves:
    Roster Transactions:
    - The Baltimore Orioles claimed RHP George Soriano off waivers from the Miami Marlins. The Colorado Rockies claimed 1B/OF Troy Johnston off waivers from the Miami Marlins.
    - RHP Zach Brzykcy was claimed off waivers from the Washington Nationals.
    - RHP Christian Roa, 2B Jack Winkler, RHP Tyler Zuber, RHP Jesús Tinoco, C Brian Navarreto, RHP Valente Bellozo, and RHP Freddy Tarnok were outrighted to Jacksonville. All of them elected free agency and can now sign with any club.
    - Miami Marlins activated RHP Max Meyer, LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Anthony Bender, and LHP Braxton Garrett from the 60-day injured list.
    The 40-man roster as of today, Monday, 10th Nov 2025:
    Pitchers:
    Alcántara, Bachar, Bender, Brzykcy, Cabrera, Faucher, Fulton, Garrett, Gibson, Gusto, Henríquez, Junk, Mazur, Meyer, Nardi, Pérez, Petersen, Phillips, Simpson, Weathers.
    Position Players:
    Hicks, Ramírez, Acosta, De Los Santos, Edwards, López, Norby, Pauley, Sanoja, Serna, Wagaman, Conine, Hernández, Marsee, Mesa Jr., Myers, Stowers, Wiemer.
    That's 38 players. The next important date for the Marlins' roster is the 21st of November, which is the Non-tender deadline. This one is tricky because of health concerns; Nardi is a non-tender candidate. On the other hand, his salary projection is barely above the minimum ($800k), and given his past success and the lack of lefties in the bullpen, it might be worth taking the shot. It all depends on his health, and the organisation is quite adamant about sharing his status. I would not tender him. The roster goes down to 37 players.
    Rule-5 draft:
    Select C Joe Mack, RHPs Josh White, and William Kempner to the 40-man roster. Near-obvious moves given the quality displayed in AAA last year, both Mr Sussman and DJS agreed here. The roster is full now. Here is where things get interesting.
    It's Trade Season:
    - LHP Braxton Garrett and INF Connor Norby for RHP Juan Mejía and LHP Michael Prosecky from Colorado. Makes sense for both sides because the Rockies need all the SPs they can get, even with the huge health concerns that come with Garrett. They also need corner infielders, and after grabbing Johnston last week, Norby would be a good complement. Mejia is a high-octane reliever with only one year of service, with a FB-SL combo, and Prosecky is an AA lefty who has starting experience, but projects as a bullpen arm and can make the big leagues as soon as next season. Given the projected heavy-lefty lineup, the roster would need a RH bat...
    - LHP Ryan Weathers and Anthony Bender for 3B/1B Coby Mayo and OF Austin Overn from Baltimore. How about giving another shot to this recently successful trade partnership? It should be pretty much the same trade as the win-win Norby-and-Stowers-for-Rogers trade. Baltimore will be hesitant to part ways with Mayo, but their roster already features a solid infield, and they have to give Basallo most reps at 1B. Mayo has always projected a higher ceiling than Norby, even at the expense of more swing-and-miss, but also more plate discipline. He is a below-average defender at 3B, but has a great arm, and the glove can improve (I bet he would be better than Norby anyway). Despite Baltimore's depth chart featuring eight starters, only Dean Kremer threw more than 120 innings last year, and he is more of a 5th starter. Overn is a glove-first CF playing double AA, and is basically a throw-in. Alternative: A trade for 3B Sal Stewart from CIN.
     
    The roster sits now at 38 players.
    For the love of god, can we sign a couple of free agents?
    - Sign RHP Ryan Helsley at the same contract, but probably a couple more million the first year.
    - Sign 1B Lewin Diaz to an incentive-loaded 2-year MLB guarantee contract ($5M the first year with up to $2M in incentives based on HRs, $7M second for the second year), with an opt-out option after the 1st year. This is basically replacing Johnston’s spot for a Gold Glove-calibre 1B, who just hit 50 HRs in Korea. If he can translate at least 20 of those against MLB pitching, the sign will be a bargain. One can dream about a Mack-Diaz-Edwards-Mayo/Pauley-López infield that would be very much appreciated by the entire pitching staff.
     
    - Sign LHP José Quintana to a $5M one-year deal. This signing makes sense from many perspectives. After trading both lefties in the rotation, one veteran southpaw could be useful. Also, the contract is basically the same money as the projected arbitration salaries for Bender, Garrett, and Weathers. On top of that, Quintana can be a trade chip mid-season, pretty much the same as Quantrill was this year. Alternative: LHP Anthony Kay (Yokohama BayStars).
    The roster reaches 40 players once again. I have not addressed one problem: this roster is missing a LH reliever. I think the approach here would be "finding a hidden gem" via Rule 5 claims or several minor league deals, with invitations to Spring Training. Speaking of which:
    Minor League Free Agents:
    Sign RHP Bellozo, LHP Nardi, and C Navarreto to minor league deals with an invitation to Spring Training. Contracts with incentives if they make the MLB roster, luring them to stay in the organisation. Other proposed minor league deals: LHP Génesis Cabrera, LHP Cionel Pérez, LHP John Rooney, LHP Matt Krook, LHP Drew Rom, LHP Ethan Small, RHP Nabil Crismatt, RHP Alexis Díaz, INF Kevin Newman, 1B/OH Nick Pratto, OF/DH Eloy Jiménez, and C Elias Díaz.
    Contract Extensions:
    Same as Ely, plus Marsee this mid-season, depending on how he performs before the All-Star break.
    Projected 26-man to start the season:
    Catchers: Hicks, Ramírez (with Mack eventually joining in late April or May, at the expense of Myers)
    Infielders: Díaz, Edwards, Mayo, López, Pauley, Sanoja
    Outfielders: Stowers, Marsee, Conine, Hernández, Myers
    Starters: Alcántara, Cabrera, Pérez, Quintana, Junk
    Relievers: Helsley (CL), Mejia (SU), Henriquez (SU), Faucher, Bachar, Phillips, Gibson, and Meyer
    Rest of the 40-man: Acosta, Serna, Wagaman, Wiemer, Mesa Jr., De Los Santos, Mack, Kempner, White, Brzykcy, Mazur, Petersen, Gusto, Fulton
    Opening Day Lineup (vs RHP):
    Edwards 2B
    Marsee CF
    Stowers LF
    Ramirez DH
    Diaz 1B
    Mayo 3B
    Conine RF
    Lopez SS
    Hicks C
    Lineup vs LHP:
    Edwards 2B
    Hernandez RF
    Ramirez C
    Stowers DH
    Mayo 3B
    Diaz 1B
    Lopez SS
    Myers CF
    Sanoja LF
    When Mack arrives, and if he performs as expected (around .240/.310/.400), the lineup will get a lot closer to a contender. There will be some more work still to be done, but that will depend on how the first half of the season develops. Roster pieces like Petersen, Josh White, Gusto, Wagaman, DLS, and minor league pieces like Snelling, Thomas White, and Alderman can be impactful down the stretch.
    Most of the roster moves will not make the farm system, but the cost of the free agents might be a long shot, given the always-frugal ownership. As always, let me know what you think.
  2. Like
    Chad Turner reacted to Hans Herrera for a blog entry, My Offseason Blueprint   
    It is that time of the year when we all want to play being Peter Bendix (or whatever he can do with cheap Uncle Bruce behind him). Last year, my offseason blueprint would have had some good results: At catcher, Grandal was injured for a while but still had a very decent season; Perdomo at SS also visited the IL but still had a solid bat and a very good glove; Jake Fraley was a below-average corner OF, more adequate as a 4th OF but still would have preferred him over DLC; Sam Moll had an excellent season in Cincy. Bad calls: Jake Odorizzi,  Kyle Farmer, and some 40-man roster pieces like retaining Jacob Amaya. All in all, I think I would have assembled a competent team, even knowing that 2024 went terribly after only 9 games.
    Let me try again this year. First, I am going to start with what matters the most for constructing a roster: Payroll. Last year, the Marlins had a $97,5M payroll and as today's roster, are projecting $68M for 2025, data taken from Spotrac. Given the always-frugal approach of this team, and the latest FA experiences (García, Anderson, Cueto), I think Sherman will open around $10-12M for FAs this offseason. Let's be "optimistic" and say we have 12.
    Before starting, I think the current status of both the 40-man roster AND the farm system are not particularly strong, that said, there aren't many pieces to trade from nor is the team realistically interested in further weakening their minor leagues, in opposition to last offseason, when the team was focused on reaching the playoffs for consecutive seasons rather than the current rebuilding process. However, I believe this team might be closer to contention fundamentally due to the projected rotation and bullpen, if fully healthy.
    Making Space
    After the Rule 5 protection deadline, the current 40-man roster is full. If the Fish wants to improve last season's results they will need to add some key pieces, particularly on position players. Some placeholders had fair chances to succeed and didn't size their opportunities, so allow me to start the roster crunch.
    Transaction: Mike Baumann, Vidal Brujan, and Johnny Pereda are Designated for Assignment. MLB roster has now 37 players.
    Why? Baumann wasn't good for any of the 5 teams he pitched last season. Pereda had a 33 OPS+, and the only thing Bruján provided was defense versatility and this team needs a lot more than that. None of them will bring any return in a trade, although Bruján can net a low prospect from a non-contender.
    What is Needed
    Capable bats, especially if any of them can play 3B, SS, or OF, especially CF. Burger should move permanently to 1B/DH, Norby didn't look good at the hot corner, and we still don't know if we can trust Bride a full season at 3B, which he wasn't a magician in any case. Also, Edwards can fake it at SS but needs to improve a whole lot if he wants to stick in that position. The OF is more or less in the air for any player not named Jesús Sánchez. Despite terrific seasons from Faucher, Cronin, and some other bullpen arms, there is no shutdown stuff in the relieving corps.
    What is Available
    After the non-tender deadline, the Free Agent list for this offseason was finally complete. As mentioned above, I will assume $12M as a spending budget this offseason, to sit down in the $80M payroll zone. For reference, only the A's had a payroll below that figure during 2024.
    The top free agent at 3B is Alex Bregman, who is safe to say won't play for Miami next season. After him, there is no slam-dunk regular player on the list: Patrick Wisdom, Luis Urias, Gio Urshela, Yoan Moncada, Brandon Drury, and old friends Kiké Hernández and Donovan Solano follow Bregman, but none of them offer an attractive solution for handling the position.
    Since this team is planning to play Edwards at SS, the backup catcher is a bit more pressing right now. Luckily, there are a bunch of interesting names that can complement Fortes very well: Higashioka, Díaz, Grandal once again, Kelly, Knizner, Gary Sánchez, and Danny Jansen among others. If by any chance the Marlins look into the SS position - meaning, moving Edwards back to 2B and López down to a bench role -, Willy Adames highlights the free agent list, with Ha-Seong Kim behind him. None of that duo will come to South Florida.
    Moves
    Transaction: Sign C Danny Jansen for a two-year $7M contract ($3M in 2025 and $4M in 2026) with a $6M third-year club option or $500k buyout. Plan B: Sign C Carson Kelly to a one-year contract with a 2nd-year player option. Jansen had a subpar 2024, but he was well above-average offensive catcher for the three years prior.
    Transaction: Sign RHP José Leclerc to a 2-year $6M contract with a club option for a 3rd year. Also coming from a down year in 2024, Leclerc has closing experience and would almost immediately reclaim the role for the Fish.
    Transaction: Miami Marlins trade LHP Ryan Weathers to the Texas Rangers for 3B/SS Josh Smith and prospects RHP Skylar Hales and LHP Mitch Bratt. It is difficult to find a team with any kind of excess in either 3B or SS. Luckily, the Rangers have more or less settled the diamond with Lowe, Semien, Seager. and a fully recovered Josh Jung. That leaves the bench to Duran, Ornellas, and Smith, the latter having a terrific season replacing Jung. Mostly played 3B with mixed reviews defensively, but also played 49 games at SS. Feels a bit like an overpay, but I do like Smith's OBP, durability, and flexibility. The other two prospects won't have to be added to the 40-man roster, further strengthening the farm system.
    Transaction: Sign OF Austin Hays to a one-year $6M contract with a mutual option for a second year, $8M option. Plan B: Sign OF Dylan Carlson on a one-year $1.5M contract with incentives based on performance. Hays mashes lefties and offers a good corner OF glove. With so much uncertainty in the OF beyond Sánchez, Hays will provide some stability in LF and platoon with Jesús vs. LHP.
    These transactions will move the roster back to 40 players. There is still plenty of depth when it comes to Starters, even after parting ways with Weathers. All said and done, the active roster for next season would look like:
    Starters (5): Alcántara, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, and Bellozo/Meyer (Spring Training - to be replaced by Eury Pérez when ready from TJS)
    Relievers (8): Leclerc (CL), Faucher, Cronin, Nardi, Tinoco, Bender, Meyer/Bellozo, and Veneziano/Bachar (ST)
    Catchers (2): Jansen and Fortes
    Infielders (6): Burger, Norby, Smith, Edwards, López, and Bride
    Outfielders (5): Hays, Hill, and Sánchez, for sure plus two from the Conine/Stowers/Myers/Sanoja group (ST). Today, Conine, Sanoja, and Myers have the edge.
    A regular lineup would look like (vs. RHP):
    Edwards SS
    Smith 3B
    Norby 2B
    Sánchez RF
    Burger 1B
    Hays LF
    Bride DH
    Jansen C
    Hill CF
    This is probably not a .500-team but it is competitive enough to make a positive impact. I am aware that the toughest part is to get those FAs at the suggested price, but all of them can be lured by a non-contender team which might trade them off to a contender mid-season if they perform well. Also, and more importantly, the farm system wasn't touched.
    Let me know what you think!
×
×
  • Create New...