What could a Jesus Luzardo trade look like?

With the calendar having just turned over and less than two months to go until Marlins’ pitchers and catchers report to Jupiter, the club has had a very quiet offseason. Though Peter Bendix and Co. have made a few small signings that will be expected to contribute to the MLB team in 2024, they have not addressed their biggest needs and have lost more than they have gained in the department of proven MLB talent. Despite having just reached the postseason last year, there is an emphasis being put on partially rebuilding internally, prioritizing the franchise's long-term viability.

Per Ken Rosenthal, Jesus Luzardo is reportedly garnering serious trade interest. Luzardo, who joined his hometown team in 2021, was finally healthy over the course of a full season this last year. He also improved his arsenal by shelving his sinker in order to throw more four-seam fastballs and garnered more whiffs on his slider than ever before. Over 178 innings, Luzardo racked up 200+ strikeouts while walking just 55 with by far the most consistent control/command he’s ever shown.

Painful as it would be to part with a high-end starter who's only 26 and still three years away from free agency, Luzardo is at peak value. The Marlins would be able to extract a handsome prospect package in return. Bleacher Report recently cooked up some potential trades. You can find countless others on Baseball Trade Values. Here are three plausible trade scenarios of our own.

Marlins trade LHP Jesus Luzardo and OF/IF Javier Sanoja to Boston Red Sox for OF Ceddanne Rafaela and C Kyle Teel

The Marlins and Red Sox match up well on a need-for-need basis. After a disappointing 2023 season, the Red Sox are desperate for more top-end rotational talent, especially after the trade of Chris Sale. They had the 21st-ranked team ERA in 2023 and currently only have four lefties on their entire 40-man roster (none in their projected Opening Day rotation). For a team that allowed a .799 OPS to lefty batters last season, Luzardo would be the perfect acquisition for their rotation and would likely ace it.

Rafaela is a true center fielder who, after a .302/.349/.520 tenure in 108 games between AA and AAA, made his big league debut last season. Already 28 games into his MLB tenure, Rafaela is still just 23 years old. The Curaçao native who is lauded for his bat-to-ball skills and plus speed on the bases, would immediately become the Marlins’ everyday center fielder. His acquisition would also allow Miami to move Jazz Chisholm Jr back onto the infield at second base where he is much more comfortable with Luis Arraez moving to first base and Josh Bell becoming the everyday DH. This acquisition would bolster a fleeting defense and protect the health of multiple assets.

Rafaela is under club control through at least 2029. He would be the target piece in a deal with Boston. From the Red Sox’s and Craig Breslow's standpoint, they have Jarren Duran to their credit who has ample ability to step back in as their everyday man at the eight spot.

Still with the hope of developing their prep catchers Will Banfield and Joe Mack, the club passed on selecting the collegiate sophomore Teel in the 2023 draft in favor of prep hurler Noble Meyer. Four picks after the Marlins and Meyer, Teel went to the Red Sox at 14 overall. During his first year pro, Teel appeared in just 26 games but hit well at each of three levels, including AA.

The addition of Teel would give the Marlins their most advanced backstop system wide. The lefty bat with a simplistic approach, great patience, 45-50 grade game power that is still developing, and fantastic athleticism that allots him a plus-plus arm and movements behind the plate, could contribute to a big league team as early as next season. He’s still just 21 years old and shows every intention of being the a long-term answer behind the plate for whichever organization is lucky enough to have him around. Think of a Brian McCann-esque ceiling.

Marlins trade LHP Jesus Luzardo and 2B Yiddi Cappe to Baltimore Orioles for OF Colton Cowser, SS Joey Ortiz and C Creed Willems

In their current state, the Orioles have some decent MLB pitchers, but they don’t have a clear bonafide ace. Like the Red Sox, their rotation is righty-heavy. In 2023, the team's 7.27 ERA in the playoffs doomed them. The acquisition of Luzardo would give the Orioles their Opening Day starter and ace. Without any pitching within their top third of the system right now, Luzardo would provide a massive upgrade for a team looking to go from a playoff appearance to playoff success.

In Cappe, the Orioles would get a work-in-progress that is best suited for second base long term. He has a ton of athleticism but there are issues with his swing and timing that need to be solved for. Cappe, 21, still very much has time on his side and has already been exposed to A+. There is the potential for a lot more to be unlocked here both in the way of physical and statistical projection. A change of scenery could be exactly what he needs.

Cowser is the Orioles’ first-rounder from 2021 who is capable of handling all three outfield spots, including center field. He doesn’t have great speed, but he shows good instincts off the bat which could allow him to stick in CF. He flew through the O’s system in just two short years to make his debut last season. According to his FanGraphs metrics, he was attacked very often with offspeed stuff including changeups and sliders which he struggled against, leading to an unproductive initial cup of coffee (40 wRC+ in 77 PA). That said, his historical MiLB stats pave the way for improvement related to his patience and swing selections. Cowser is still a bit of work in progress, but if acquired, would immediately step in as the everyday center fielder. At 23, he still has two option years to his credit and all his club-controlled years ahead of him, fitting the Marlins’ mold for young, controllable players who are prepared to contribute immediately.

Known for standout 60-grade defense at shortstop, Ortiz has also showed a balanced contact-oriented approach at the plate and has incorporated the capability for some plus pop in the recent years of his four year MiLB career. Scouts point to his ability to improve physically over the past two seasons as a catalyst for taking him from a utility player ceiling to that of an everyday player who most definitely can stick at short. At the very least, Ortiz has the capability and athleticism to man multiple positions at the big league level, making him a high-floor player. If acquired, he’d have a great chance to immediately take over shortstop duties, allowing Miami to deploy both Berti and Edwards in utility-based roles. Having just debuted last season, Ortiz is also inexpensive for many years to come.

Like the aforementioned Teel, Willems is a lefty-hitting catcher. The Orioles got him out of high school in 2021. After missing time with an elbow injury during his first full season in 2022, he returned in 2023 in better shape and with a modified approach at the plate. That work allowed Willems to improve his receiving skills and pump out 17 home runs between A and A+.

The Marlins have had a volatile past when it comes to high school catchers and Willems definitely requires more developing. That said, with his 60-grade raw power starting to translate to game power as well as his strong arm and improvements made as a receiver, he's an attractive prospect. Willems has also spent time at first base.

Marlins trade LHP Jesus Luzardo and RHP Juan De La Cruz to Texas Rangers for OF Evan Carter, OF/1B Dustin Harris and SS Cameron Cauley

With Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom rehabbing from injuries and several more soon-to-be-expiring contracts, the defending World Series champions are in dire need of controllable starting pitching. Luzardo should be a clear target for them. De La Cruz gets added to this trade as an up-and-coming righty who was very impressive this past season, reaching as high as 98 mph with an advanced three-pitch mix. He spent most of 2023 at Low-A as an 18-year-old, pitching against competition that was more than four years his elder on average. He will require patience, but would be a sneaky acquisition as a second piece in any potential deal with Miami.

Carter would undoubtedly be Miami’s main target in a deal with the Rangers. A high school pick from 2020, Carter rose through the minor league ranks in under two full seasons. After an injury to Adolis Garcia, he debuted for the Rangers this past September and made an immediate impact, hitting .306 with a 1.058 OPS through his first 23 games. Despite Garcia’s return for the playoffs, Carter was impossible to keep off the Rangers’ playoff roster. In each of his first six postseason games, Carter recorded at least one hit. He also had standout moments on both sides of the ball in the ALCS. Carter’s success at the plate continued in the World Series where he went 6-for-21 with a walk. All in all, he reached base at least once in all 17 games during the Rangers’ title run (.417 OBP).

The seemingly unprecedented run to start Carter’s career corroborated his bombastic scouting grades including 60 grade hit and 60 grade speed. With plus bat and strike zone control, Carter’s approach on top of already solid raw power should manifest in a yearly 20/20 threat, at least. Carter has mostly played the corners with the Rangers, but he more than has the speed, arm strength and route running ability to man center field regularly. So mature at such a young age, he would immediately step in as the Marlins’ everyday center fielder and if his projection continues, would have perennial All-Star potential and the very real capacity for all five tools.

Harris is a 6’3”, 185-pound, lefty-hitting/righty-throwing outfielder and first baseman. He was an 11th-round pick out of JuCo by the A’s in 2019. After an injury-hampered 2022 season, Harris made it from AA to AAA this past season where he hit .273/.382/.455. Harris limits swings-and-misses and picks his spots very well. Through his minor league career, his K rate is a very manageable 19.4%. He’s also walked at an impressive 12.2% rate, including 13.9% at the highest level of MiLB last year. When Harris does attack, he shows fairly easy power that he can deploy to all fields. It has allotted him 52 home runs in his first 380 career games.

Defensively, Harris shows just average peripherals in the corners which will likely limit him to playing left field. However, his offensive upside would keep him in the lineup. Harris also has eligibility at first base, an important position for the Marlins to address assuming this proves to be Josh Bell's final season with them. At 24 with his MLB clock yet to be started, Harris would slot in nicely as the first baseman of the future for Miami.

Cauley was a third-round prep pick by the Rangers in 2021. He broke into pro ball with Texas that season and has since only risen to A+, repeating the Low-A level to start 2023. He also had a subpar showing with the bat in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League this year. While the 21-year-old righty isn’t expected to grow into much power and needs to be developed to be more of a bat-to-ball threat, he is already a massive difference-maker in the field and on the bases.

With good reads off the bat, range to both sides, and an above-average arm, Cauley has spent time at multiple defensive positions but is more than capable of sticking long term at shortstop. On the bases, he shows 60+ grade speed, giving him the ability to turn anything into extra bases by consistently challenging opposing defenses. He’s currently a righty-hitting-only Nasim Nunez (Nunez was taken from the Marlins last month in the Rule 5 Draft) with room to grow into more if his bat can be further developed. The Marlins don’t have many sure-fire shortstops in their system. Cauley’s fairly high floor would fill that void.

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