5 biggest surprises from first half of Marlins season

First-half splits that I would've never seen coming entering 2023.

The biggest understatement in Fish On First's young history: this Miami Marlins season has gone differently than anticipated. Even if you dared to dream of them ascending to 14 games above .500, this probably is not the "formula" you had in mind. Inevitably, there are injuries that upend the depth chart, but putting those aside, I spent some time reflecting on how the 2023 season has strayed furthest from my pre-Opening Day expectations.

Honorable mentions on this topic include Jean Segura's struggles (would've made the cut if not for his two-week hot streak entering the break), Eury Pérez's 2.36 earned run average (even more awe-inspiring for somebody who skipped Triple-A), and minor league Rule 5 Draft pick Dane Myers starting as many games in center field (five) as Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and Peyton Burdick combined.

Without further adieu, read my top five biggest surprises below.

1) Sandy Alcantara's 4.72 ERA—There was inevitably going to be some regression from Alcantara's Cy Young campaign, and you figured the rest of the league would be working diligently to find something in his tendencies that they could exploit. That being said, his first-half results were worse than anybody could have reasonably feared. He has already allowed more earned runs than he did during the entire 2022 season! The most glaring difference has been the effectiveness of his changeup, which after accruing a minus-25 run value last year, according to Statcast, is now his biggest liability (plus-6 RV).

2) 21-6 record in one-run games—The Marlins don't have a veteran manager or an untouchable closer or superb defensive replacements or a home crowd that intimidates visitors, so how come they're thriving in late-and-close situations? With 70 games to go, rookie skipper Skip Schumaker is just three shy of matching his predecessor, Don Mattingly, in one-run wins. Although some of this turnaround is inexplicable and frankly unsustainable, Schumaker and his coaching staff deserve some credit for sufficiently preparing their players for what to expect in specific matchups and for using the players who are best suited for those high-leverage moments.

3) Luis Arraez hitting .383—It has been decades since the last time a qualified MLB hitter owned as high a BA as Arraez does entering the All-Star break. The Marlins paid a steep price to acquire him from the Minnesota Twins largely because they valued his high floor—Arraez's supernatural bat control makes him practically slump-proof. Even with the advantageous rule change restricting infield shifting, the 26-year-old is bursting through his perceived ceiling. Most emphatically on April 11 (4-for-5 vs. PHI) and June 16 (5-for-5 vs. WSH), Arraez has carried the Marlins to key victories.

4) Jon Berti stealing only nine bases—En route to leading the majors with 41 steals in 2022, Berti once amassed nine on a single road trip! By limiting pitcher disengagements with the rubber and increasing the size of the bases, his task was supposed to get even easier this season. He has actually received more playing time at age 33 while reaching base safely at a similar rate. And yet, he's attempting thefts less than half as often. The Marlins collectively rank tied for 19th among MLB teams with 56 SB.

5) Jacob Stallings out-hitting Nick Fortes (by wRC+)—I was one of the many voices who called upon the Marlins to make Fortes the club's primary catcher this season. They obliged and Fortes has demonstrated that he's the

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