Why Marlins made room on their roster for Luarbert Arias

[Ely Sussman]

During the middle portion of the 2024 season, Arias was quietly one of the best relievers at the Triple-A level.

It's shaping up to be a "let the kids play" type of season for the Miami Marlins in 2025 where they will lean heavily on individuals with limited MLB experience. Some are poised to get their very first taste of the majors, such as right-handed reliever Luarbert Arias. Although Arias was passed over for opportunities late in the 2024 campaign when the Marlins were scrambling for bullpen arms, they expressed their affection by selecting him to the 40-man roster on Monday to avoid losing him in minor league free agency.

Signed by the San Diego Padres out of Venezuela in 2017, Arias had only progressed to the Low-A level by the end of the 2021 season. The Marlins took a flier on him in the minor league phase of that year's Rule 5 Draft.

In three seasons since then, Arias ranks tied for second among all Marlins prospects with 112 MiLB pitching appearances. That is a testament to his durability—zero injured list stints—and also how conservative his development has been. In most cases, if you post a sub-3.00 ERA and 30% strikeout rate over such an extended period with no health concerns, you stop accruing minor league stats because you get called up!

That call-up should be coming at some point next year now that Arias is on the 40-man and has a full season of Triple-A reps under his belt. He battled through inconsistent stretches at the beginning and end of 2024, but for three months right in the middle, from May 17 through August 18, he surrendered only three earned runs in 36 ⅔ innings pitched (0.74 ERA).

Arias limits hard contact for the most part. With Jacksonville, the average exit velocity against him was 87.7 mph, identical to what Anthony Bender allowed for the Marlins. Bender ranked in the 78th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers.

A key difference between them, however, is that Bender reliably induces ground balls while Arias has been an extreme flyball pitcher. He has had a 30.2 GB% since joining the Marlins org—that is just barely outside the bottom 1% of all minor leaguers with 100-plus innings pitched during the same span. Also, Arias does not spin the ball with the same proficiency as Bender.

Arias' fastball velo varies quite a bit, peaking at 99 mph, but dipping as low as 90 mph (average of 94.2 mph). Here he is freezing future teammate Connor Norby at 97 mph for a ꓘ.

Arias posted extreme reverse platoon splits in 2024, allowing a .807 OPS to right-handed batters and a .541 OPS to lefties. That looks to be a mirage created by batted ball luck. His home run, strikeout and walk rates held very steady regardless of handedness, and he didn't have meaningful splits in 2022 or 2023.

In terms of pitch mix and characteristics, delivery and body type, Arias resembles a right-handed version of Andrew Nardi. The Marlins' decision to select him would be validated if he's able to mirror Nardi's effectiveness.

View full article